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minus10

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Posts posted by minus10

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Evening all

    Have to say the weather in the area between Greenland and Svalbard at T+192 might be "interesting". That's a 10m wind speed of 90-100 Km/hr - a constant wind speed of 55-60 mph, gusts to who knows what? That's a N'ly wind so anyone want to hazard a guess at the windchill - 850s are -24. 

    So that's a -24c 850 and a steady windspeed of 60 mph, I'll leave someone to work that out.

    image.thumb.png.d17d3c77a3272d6fb782ed8f563e0020.pngimage.thumb.png.5ad3f70fa0d7c0ed408ddb759be47a66.png

    Still looks very interesting for early April. One or two looking at the 12Z ECM run and calling it game over - to be fair, southern and eastern Britain wouldn't see much but that's a solid long fetch NNE'ly over western parts and the traditional eastwards correction so going to work out well for cold fans.

    GFS OP keeps the cold going well into next month with a series of troughs forming close to the British isles - Control takes the HP further south more quickly and then send sit back over the British isles.

    image.png

    Yes Stodge, some of these synoptics being presented by the models are pretty amazing resulting in some extreme weather even for this time of year. You get the impression that whatever happens over in the UK, that part of the world from Greenland eastwards is in for a rough time. A lot of (pent up) energy in the atmosphere?...

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters T192-T240, the key timeframe!

    BE97CE8F-48F4-4F17-BCED-C1632C637882.thumb.png.3ca0eca53ba61be82fc293ed066077b2.png

    Cluster 1 is essentially the ECM op, cluster 2 is the UK significant cold spell, and cluster 3 is a surprise move to warm and settled.  I’d weight cluster 1 down a bit, and 2 up a bit, given what we’ve seen from GFS, and noting that model performs better re proper Greenland highs, to maybe put the cluster 2 scenario as slight favourite.  Where’s your money?

    Yes the mystery deepens. The 12z ecm is nowhere near as cold as the previous few runs with the clusters showing more runs for less cold or indeed warm outcomes than the very cold runs of late. Could the very warm air make a bid to get in via the south east backdoor so to speak courtesy of the west based NAO...Roll on the gfs 18z....

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    27 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

    That’s more than 100mb difference over less than a thousand miles between central Greenland and the low off Svalbard. That’ll knock him off his board!


    A527956D-E0C8-46FB-ADF4-5796CC616D61.thumb.png.30b8dee3ade74d678a1f7f598a364822.png101A25F0-F7BE-48FD-959F-EA9F2244BD22.thumb.jpeg.22ce11095308ffd857b1834825c73106.jpeg 175.51 kB · 0 downloads

     

     

     

     

    I cant remember ever in my life seeing such high pressure signalled for greenland as with gfs12z. 1090mb +

    image.thumb.png.de8293167cc93255f7d463a387cd2a21.png

    The artic monster is heading our way...

    image.thumb.png.c88bfb0597253b59c588da20f7174601.png

    What is going on ?

    Its enough to make you scream....

    image.thumb.png.f6ab07fccd2f39179afaac2e937b8663.png

     

     

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, the synoptics currently being shown on the models and in particular the latest ECM are , even for spring , pretty amazing in my opinion. Although i dont have the historical knowledge of others in relation to these things, the ecm goes from almost having plus 10 850s on 30th March over the south east to minus 10 850s over almost the whole country by Monday 5th April: a change of 20 degrees. 

    image.thumb.png.7a8d54cbb9a582c3f3bedbc0c6a8a95f.pngimage.thumb.png.ad6e81a3d521e4b5b5b203091fa78861.png

    In addition this is some long fetch northerly being lined up..

    image.thumb.png.4e9a6b1866e557883ba6a731993e4579.png

    Tracing the isobars it goes from the the other side of the artic almost down to the south of spain...

    Whether you like it hot or cold these synoptics are pretty interesting to say the least...

    • Like 9

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    Interesting that the GFS 18z has cold air over the uk for the first 10 days of April with the minus ten 850s getting down to the south on two or three occasions. 

     

    image.thumb.png.3d8c01653ba77b5936ea3fa331b3c352.pngimage.thumb.png.c90caf1d2c7b592078c04d857bd2f0ee.pngimage.thumb.png.082be370ae47692fd35b8f4e27a51735.pngimage.thumb.png.2eb4f6a6bfd76c1c263622adffc46bb5.png

    This would be quite some cold spell if it verifies. As others have said if it had been in January or February we would have been looking at a pretty severe spell. As it is it could still be very lively with increased solar radiation...

     

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Great charts from the gfs if it's cold and possible wintry/snow showers you are after,...like me (i wouldn't mind one last blast)...

    but the UKMO says no and i would love the UKMO to come off TBF ,...winter can wait until next,...well,...winter

    144.

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.94b33566d669aa8d7fb01f5b8d63ddc9.gif

    if the gfs was to come off then there would be plenty of convective showers about in an unstable north to NE wind with maybe some thunder snow

    lets see where the other models go for the rest of the day.

    Yes after the warm/very warm spell the gfs 12z keeps most of uk in at least -5 850s from 31st March through to 9th April. Plenty of scope for wintry showers in this time as you say but also regretably night time frosts...

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    Yes as has been stated the 0z ecm has extended the warm spell with the potential for pretty high temps.

    image.thumb.png.3e7fe750b497d39aee3a1c922907c6ee.png

    However it then has a powerhouse northerly at the end resulting from a substantial block over greenland into the atlantic. The term screaming northerly comes to mind. 

    image.thumb.png.487566d67d1cfe7416387f01584c35df.png

    Be interesting to see how this plays out. Will the cold keep being pushed back but will it also increase in intensity when it arrives? Or will it evolve into something much less potent?. Certainly interesting model watching currently, not least for gardeners and growers...

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Seems to be a powerhouse of cold air dropping down from the greenland area on this gfs 18z run. 

    image.thumb.png.b05a47742de88d6e2f156eb130f9b182.pngimage.thumb.png.567451b765092b5651ad5c889036703b.png

     

    I know it is way in FI so changes are likely however this signal has been growing for a while now. The pattern presently shown seems to be in a reload type of setup. Potentially damaging frosts if this was to any way verify which would not good for gardeners /growers. ...Lets look forward to the couple of warmer days after the weekend....

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

    I for one am very pleased to see this as its very seasonal for up here in spring and seems to support my theory that lack of pollution has allowed us to return to more defined seasons in the last 12 months.If true to form heat will arrive about the 20th of April along with the swallows and swifts.

    I remember going through to Aberdeen in mid April in the early sixties on the bus along with my mother and sister to see Sound of Music at cinema in Holburn Street. We  came out of cinema at about 4.00pm to a heavy powdery snow shower. On the way back we sat in back of bus and I was able to observe some great towering  cloudscapes highlighted in pink as sun began to  set. They could be seen all the way home to the east coming on to the Buchan coast,I think they were traditionaly known as Buchan Boaters or spring snow showers on a north wind.  I only went because I knew I would see falling snow!!!!!  21c arrived the follwing week.

    If my thoughts are right a traditional summer beckons with three fine days and a thunderstorm so something for everyone

    Yes it does seem that the weather has been a bit more seasonal down here lately. Overall a colder winter and in particular i have noticed the delayed appearance of many of the spring flowers and those that are out staying out for longer in the cooler conditions. As a gardener i do not relish the thought of further frosts at this time of year however the onset of northerlies often mean you have crisp clearner air with good visibility and sunshine between  the showers (Must be particularly noticeable in scotland) . I often remember as a child in 60/70 s experiencing 'wintry' showers in April/May. Almost like chunks of ice falling from the sky!. Anyhow some warm weather to look forward to first hopefully before the onset of the colder air if it arrives. All in all very springlike....

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, stodge said:

    The GFS 12Z OP keeps the signal for something rather colder for Easter.

    image.thumb.png.d458b7f7c4b6154097ba11ba9df46232.png

    The key is the small LP which forms close to the Azores - this forces ridging further to the west and eventually north west creating heights over Greenland and allowing the trough to drop to the east of Scandinavia and sending a cold arctic blast south and west over north west Europe.

    image.thumb.png.79545838180ad4a6f60e573eebd8a298.pngimage.thumb.png.7e2b464ce3a90e1e79334f7386a57531.pngimage.thumb.png.8e25699e62c56fd8b80ed5c0a1060d08.png

    We know northern blocking is most prevalent in April and May and this evolution is far from unusual at this time of year as spring is the time of conflict between warmer and colder airmasses.

    Yes that interplay between warm and cold airmasses can be seen well on the later part of gfs 12z run

    image.thumb.png.5f2889180bb55f8288ec00db5e91132f.png

    Quite a mixture there. 

    Also should be some interesting skycapes in any northerlies that do occur at this time of year. Showers can be lively shall we say...

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    It's miles into FI though. How come you never mention the prospect of warmer conditions within the reliable time frame?

    They may be question marks still over the evolution from the weekend onwards but it does seem we will import some tropical maritime air for a time.

    Sunshine levels very much up in the air still dependent on the final setup.

    The GFS looks the pick of the bunch this morning with the possibility of 20C in the south still there.

    It is in FI and yes there is some warmer weather on the way which i am looking forward to. Apolpgies if i havent referred to the warmer spell however working outside it does interest me when a colder signal is shown for a while although i am aware this will probably change and is very much in line with this time of year. Be interesting to see how it develops....

     

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Paul said:

    The GFS gets updated to the V16 version today from the 12z onwards. 

    More info here:
    https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20_gfsv16.0_aac.pdf

    Thanks for that Paul. A bit too technical for me but in summary am i right in thinking that this new version will be of a higher resolution and able to deal with more variables and scanning more layers of the atmosphere?  In practice resulting in an increase in accuracy?

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