[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

One (last?) blast of winter for the south and east if this was to verify from the ecm 0z, should imagine it would feel quite bitter, especially on the east coast....

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Spring....?

Definitely a roller coaster ride on the 12z gfs...

Sorry to hear that about your Dad JS. I am sure you help make him laugh and feel happier just as you do us and that is the greatest gift. Stay strong....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

After a cool bleak period for many , particularly in the east over next week or so the gfs 6z now showing signs of warming up in the latter stage of March which will feel very nice in gentle SE wind.

The Gefs 6z  ensembles support this with a gradual climb in temps. The mean heading back towards 0 degrees with the operational at the top towards the end .

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Cold theme maintained by latest ecm. Particularly on the 18th and again on the 22nd where cold air comes in to the south East. The HP seemingly stuck to the west thus allowing activity further east. The amplification of the jet heading north in the Atlantic being maintained. With the amount of cold around to the north in this period it will need quite a shift to get the warmer air back. However as we know spring can still give us many surprises....

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

As a result of that shift it stays cool to potentially cold for the rest of the run...

Just goes to show these shifts earlier on can have fairly big consequences for later and the 'feel' of the weather. I fear that if this verified dull cold and damp weather would be the order of the day. Not what most of us want. Still plenty of cold air around with any mild incursions limited. Of course this could change however this is a signal that is still showing. As is said often on here, more runs needed....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Quite a shift northwest with a more rounded high pressure on the gfs 12z compared to the 6z thus allowing more of the cold in around the eastern flank.....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Yes cool is still the main theme for the next week or so. GFS 6z run maybe not as cool as previous runs with a chance of something warmer by 24th March...

 

However turns colder again towards the end of the run...

Still variations on a theme...

Happy birthday for Thursday Jordan. Struggle to remember when I was 22 as it is quite a while ago.....Enjoy your day whatever the weather.  

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Not nice on this day. I would imagine raw NE wind with cold rain or maybe sleet showers.....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

 

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM ends with this...

...a possible northerly?

these northerly and easterlies keep on cropping up on the models,...will we get one last hit?

stay tuned.

Yes Allseasons,

This ecm 12z reminds me of the gfs 6z with the same progression.

 

You do get the feeling that something is stirring re it turning colder again. The signal has been fairly consistent albeit variations on the theme....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

 

1 hour ago, Irishman in Yorkshire said:

Pretty normal and (thankfully) average model watching for early Spring. It shouldn’t be warm this early in the year. Good to be experiencing average climatic conditions. A temperate, oceanic climate is what we live under, and in early Spring that means cool, variable conditions with a strengthening sun to occasionally make it feel warmer. Weather as it should be...and glad of it. 

I understand what you mean IIY, spring is a period where we used to have a moderated warming over March/April. I think that nature would prefer it that way as the spring flowers out now are lasting longer than they would if it was really warm. Unfortunately I think climate change is resulting in more dramatic swings, although spring has always been an a volatile time as well. It seems from the models that any dramatic warm up has been eroded with if anything a noticeable cooling off. GFS 06z shows this in the last half of March. This could cause problems for gardeners/growers but could mean an extended spring which may not be a bad thing, although clag off the north sea at this time of year is certainly not the type of weather most people want. Interesting model watching again.....

 

 

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Yes the uninspiring theme continues if you want warmer weather. The gfs 0z run colder than ecm, even at 240 hrs . Later in the run it has colder air amassing to the NNW again. Seems no easy route to warm on this run whereas with the ecm seems more favourable to turn milder after 240hrs. Various options still on the table i think. Windy here in wgc this morning but not as windy as i thought it was going to be......

 

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Still mainly anticyclonic from 18z gfs however noticeable that the cold air to the NE over central Europe/Scandinaviour more or less remains in place from 17th or so to the end of the run when it starts to push back west. No sign of any real warmth yet over the uk from this run...

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Settled yes with high pressure but not particularly warm on the latest ecm out to 240. Orientation of HP still in doubt it seems....

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 hour ago, suffolk lady said:

real change from yesterday wet and windy here now will be fun tonight as that is when we will get strongest gusts so forecast says, looks like it will be time to have topped up flask and torch to hand in case we have joy of powercut. hubby still in hospital awaiting scan and on painkillers talk of it being an infection caused by his long term catheter chance he could be sent home with meds late today or tomorrow depending on scan result, thankyou all for good wishes much appreciated

Completely different day today. Its like back into winter, cold and wet. 

Sorry to hear about your husband SL  I wish him well, and also you and your family  . Tough times.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Now the 18z gfs is introducing cold air from the N N/W, again in FI though. Is it going to be a cold end to March?..

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Must admit the gfs12z is a strange one. Coolish easterly from around 17th to end of run. Although more likely statistically I always feel it is not a particularly good thing to have at this time of year, although in any sunnier spells could feel reasonably pleasant. Also the ever present threat of cold air again to the NE in the latter stages. Although FI it keeps appearing.....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Yes..just when we are looking forward to some fine warmer weather after the stormy bit the gfs and ecm give us prospect of NE 's..

 

 

As others have stated it is all about where the HP locates however this is a reminder that colder weather is not yet off the table.....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Just wonder what the next frame would have shown.....

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

41 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

Took my vaccine jab on saturday and been quite unwell from the side effects, but i rather take the side effects then risk actually getting a virus that can kill me.

I also took a pic at Folkstone where the vaccine building was.

 

Yes i had a jab on Saturday. Astra Zeneca in the morning and by the evening had really bad flu like symptoms that lasted all night. Feel better now but didnt expect that. Lovely view in your picture. Nice to see the sun. Not really seen it here in Hertfordshire  much over last week or so.

Re stormy spell upcoming this week. Curious as to why the met office haven't  issued any warnings for Wednesday/Thursday yet as this stormy spell has been signalled for some time now. Maybe they will this morning......

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Surprised there arent more weather warnings from the met office re wind Wednesday and Thursday yet? This has been signalled for quite some time now. Maybe they will be issued this morning. After a long quiet spell it will definately be a noticeable change...

Edit: they have now been issued. 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

After the stormy interlude gfs 12z is indicating an anticyclonic warm spell followed by an anticyclonic cool spell. The theme is there, just how it plays out is still to be finalised...

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

The calm before the storm. Seems increasing confidence of a wind event of some kind this week , Wednesday and Thursday mainly. Different to what we have been used to. I expect there will be some tree debris around as nature has a way of clearing out the old, dead and weak growth prior to new growth in a few weeks or so... 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

12 hours ago, minus10 said:

Forget toying. Its decided....well for tonight anyway...

yes this morning shows the constant volatility with the gfs going from a northerly on yesterdays 18z to a westerly on 0z to now a warm south easterly on 6z. This is a signal that seems to be growing however a colder snap cannot be ruled out yet. The wind this week will be the issue.....

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Gfs 18z toying with the idea of plunging us back into the freezer from the north....

 

Forget toying. Its decided....well for tonight anyway...

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Gfs 18z toying with the idea of plunging us back into the freezer from the north....