minus10
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Posts posted by minus10
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1 hour ago, minus10 said:
Not much to say about the 12z GFS run apart from no plume potential as such. Op at lower end of ens towards the latter stages....typical spring patten ....
Just realised the ens are from 6z: sorry.
This is the 12z ens i should have posted.
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Not much to say about the 12z GFS run apart from no plume potential as such. Op at lower end of ens towards the latter stages....typical spring patten ....
Just realised the ens are from 6z: sorry.
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7 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:
Happy Spring Equinox! Whoopee, more daylight than darkness from here on. And a week Sunday (the 28th) we spring forward so sunset not until around 19.30.
Not too bad a start to the day here, fairly bright through thin cloud and barely a breathe of wind. Hopefully a few breaks during the day; good to hear Blazerblue already enjoying a sunny spell.
Yes BW, it feels like we have turned the corner on winter and now spring is officially here. The spring flowers out in all their glory and staying out a bit longer it seems because of the cool weather. Just need to get rid of this annoying cloud/gloom. At least the days are getting longer and helped by clocks going forward next weekend. Gardens are all springing into life. Speaking as a gardener and a lover of the outside I always feel that if you get a certain combination of weather conditions this is the best time of the year...
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Oh no, shirley not gfs ???? (Jff)
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Plume anyone?
Gfs 0z shows potential thundery spell for beggining of April. Long way off but nice to see these set ups being shown...
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So nice to have a dry day all day after the wet days here in the south east. Was able to work all day outside. Looks like although it will turn more unsettled next week high pressure never far away and warm up being guggested later in the period.
Time for a beer i think.....
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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Ppn totals back this up - with your traditional NW/SE bias taking hold:
Not much in the E/SE corner, pretty wet in the NW.Thats good after this week which was far wetter here than i thought it was going to be. Hopefully today will be dry.
Latest ecm has a dryer and hopefully warmer picture , at least for first half of next week..
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What is the GFS 12z playing at?
Its ok , its only an outlier....
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Horrible miserable weather at the moment. Thank goodness for the spring flowers which really seem to like the cool weather...
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Yes, looking at the radar it looks like a repeat performance of yesterday with more rain!. So much for a dry week. Yesterday afternoon was fine after i had decided to stop work. Just cant wait for some genuinely dry weather to occur. Having said that the sun has just come out.
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GFS 12z hinting at a warm up for beginning of April, however at the moment I am not going to take it (too) seriously.
The cold blooded reptilian creature is taking aim at central Europe......
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Looking at the bbc forecast they totally underestimated the area of rain now effecting the se. Even net weather on the homepage talked about 'patchy light rain effecting east anglia' i can confirm here in wgc that it is not patchy light rain. ... Another wet day in the gardens...
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What is going on. For a supposedly dry week it is turning out to be pretty wet!!!
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Ecm 12z...well, cool, mainly settled and ...meh....
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Interesting that the 6z gfs op has HP from around 20th to 28th. Then a clash of the air masses is shown with with cold N/Ne air meeting warm SSE air.
Could result in some interesting weather if it was to verify however very unlikely. Both control and op are cold outliers on the GEFS..
Still interesting watching how these various scenarios come and go....
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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Still the odd run or two going bonkers, but on the whole an average outlook in the offing.
Next 10 days either bone dry or minimal ppn across almost the entire UK.
Yes the fact that it will (hopefully) be predominately dry is the best thing now, especially for those of us that work outside. Ground is still sodden in many places.
Ecm 0z brings back cool easterly again for a while at day 10...
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32 minutes ago, suffolk lady said:
Lovely bright start to the day 7am blue skies loads of sun, going downhill now still have sun but lots of heavy cloud around luckily my front room has 2 big windows so have warming effects in here from early morning till early afternoon unless sun goes in of course. quick update my other half is home but slow progress with antibiotics reducing swelling and infection plus still a lot of pain as well, he is pottering around insisting on doing his cooking as well im rather unsteady with hot pans etc
Hope things get better for you and hubby now SL. Once the weather warms up that should help
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Heavy shower after heavy shower here in stevenage . Thought it was going to be mostly dry today. Just seems a narrow line of activity where a weak front is lying with either side dry....
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35 minutes ago, Singularity said:
I'm glad it's mid-March and not mid-February... just imagine the toy-throwing that'd be underway following this embarrassing flip from ECM today!
The 00z run had -12*C 850s across the middle third of the UK for a time. The 12z barely gets the -5*C isotherm across the southeast.
Reminds me of 'That ECM' but toned down of course.
Quite a shift east of the cold air with the high centred much further west on the ecm op 12z. No incremental change here. Be interesting to see whether some middle ground is reached in the next few days or is this a new signal...
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58 minutes ago, suffolk lady said:
we are in a little town called leiston about a 5 min drive to sizewell beach very lovely area but when that wind blows of the north sea ouch
The latest gfs still showing the requirement to wrap up well for those on or near the E / SE coast at the end of the week. Cold feel over whole of South East I would think.
An upside of the cool/cold weather is that it has slowed down the growth of the spring flowers such that those that are not yet out are on hold while those that are out are staying out longer..
Stay warm SL and all you east coasters...
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Hope you are having a nice day SL. Where you are on the coast i should imagine it will feel cold at the end of next week if that NE happens. I suspect you are used to that though...
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A rather dull morning after early sunshine promise.
Just to say Happy Mothers Day to all the mums out there...
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The gfs op 6z also pointing in that direction although not as severe as the coldest air is further south east.
Still quite a bit of uncertainty after with some scatter in the ensembles...nothing too severe though..
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Model output discussion 10/02/21
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by minus10
0z gfs following same theme as yesterdays 6z at the very end ( jff)....