minus10
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Posts posted by minus10
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Heavier rain now but lightning died off...still activity coming in from the East though ...
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Drizzle with lightning....
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Lightning bit more frequent now...missed last night so heres hoping...
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Hammer yes pretty rare this eastery direction...wind on the ground is wsw but the thundery air still above
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Year distant rumbles from cell just to the east of Hertford...
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Bit of a cluster developing..few more distant flashes
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Flash from cell developed sw of Bishops Storford....
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Well after the mixed bh weekend where there will be rain about but also some sun to be had the signal from the gefs for settling down next week still strong from the 0z this morning...
..quite a pronounced high there..
..although no heatwave there is scope for low twenties in favoured spots i would think..
..the op going for higher pressure lasting a bit longer...
..as usual orientation crucial...ecm 0z op while also showing the high its placement not as favourable..
..although south western areas would do ok temps generally bit lower..gfs 850s and ecm..
...nice to see high pressure on the charts after what seems ages...while the upcoming bh may well be disappointing for many areas ( as per bh usual it seems) ..we can hopefully look forward to some fine or better weather after for at least a while with the usual caveats of hp orientation to be confirmed...
...misty here this morning but the air feels warmer and...kinder...have a good day...
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Well although models differ wrt bank hol weekend with ecm0z not looking that great..
..by day 10 they are both in the same ball park...
...warm south easterly...lets hope this doesnt stay at day 10..
.although op is almost an outlier at 850 there are a fair few runs looking warmer now helping to push the mean up a bit..
..reduced rain here after this week hopefully
..today should feel a bit warmer ...in fact next few days down here...thats not difficult though...
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Although some way off i think the gefs mean pressure for 9th May looks promising this morning...
..high in a better position to allow more of a warm up and importantly drier conditions..
...allowing the heat to build further south too ..
..together with the ecm0z op..
..as others have stated good signs as far as they can be this morning...has to be better than what we are enduring now...a distinctly chilly drizzly 6 deg here this morning...
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Penrith Snow yes it would be if it was January ...
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Remarkable level of similarity between Gefs, Eps and Geps 0z for 850s..
...reasonable level of certainty i think for the remainder of April then the trending back to average temps (or even above ) for beginning of May..not completely dry although hopefully less rain than what we have been encountering...
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The 12z gefs 2m temp anom switch is certainly quite stark over the continent from the 20th in particular..
..we go from this..
..(uk already below average)..
...to these..
..notable that nw Scotland and Ireland modelled to recover to above average temps for a while with more Atlantic influence perhaps...
..these tranlate into mid to high single digit temps over the continent and the uk according to gefs ..i should imagine there will be quite a lot of cloud around but where the sun does get through it could push temps into double digits depending on topography / wind direction etc..some frost also being modelled mainly over the continent again...particularly Germany , Switzerland , Eastern France and the Alps...uk according to the model mainly escapes frost...well i hope so anyway from a gardening point of view...i understand that French vineyards are already using fires to keep the worst effects of the frost away....
...more to come i should imagine..
..by 29th April the colder anom is reducing and becoming less potent...
...uk still hanging onto little below average temps...lets hope May will warm up although i get the feeling this weather pattern will be quite stubborn for a while..todays sun here in wgc felt lovely...enjoy any sun you get in next week or two if you can...
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WYorksWeather gefs 12z showing a clear 5 wave pattern which as i understand can stay around for some time...
...this was referred to in latest met 10 day trend as potentially a self sustaining pattern...problem is the uk is not in the best position if the pattern evolves as moduled keeping the cooler north easterly theme...at least the sun is getting stronger and the nights getting shorter still...as others have said this is not untypical for spring...
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Working outside yesterday was a case in point...one minute when the sky cleared and the wind dropped it felt like early summer...next the gusts returned and the big shower clouds moved in it was suddenly late winter/early spring again..
..fairly clear consistent signal now shown by eps 0z 850s for below average temps for probably rest of April..
...ens showing reasonable certainty with restricted spread..
..what is also certain is the spell of higher pressure from the weekend for 3 or 4 days...
...although from a south eastern point of view would like to see it a bit further east perhaps..
..should be able to look forward to relatively drier weather and yes..in any sunny breaks should feel pretty decent with less wind...
...longer term ..yes..that north easterly...
..for eastern/south eastern areas risk of cloud/dull/drizzle/ showers but still chance i say to see some sunny breaks...more chance further west...
..rainfull distribution also shows that south western areas will fayre best for driest weather perhaps..
..but for all areas should be drier than has been of late so that has to be an improvement..
...all in all could be better however i think there will still be some decent weather to be had..certainly some good gardening weather..(watch out for frosts though)
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Rain/ Hail squall but no lightning...think the sweet spot in Cambridgeshire...
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From a gardeners perspective yesterday was a lovely day for cutting grass....warm but not too warm...DRY..
....breezy and yes...that gold disc in the sky was out...allbeit a bit hazy at times...good day for working...actually felt like late spring/early summer...well after today which should also be good here in the south east i am desperately looking for any signs of more of this..not that promising from the gefs0z..
..Looking towards the end of April and cooler and maybe cloudy with brighter breaks with some rain seems to be on the cards..
..geop anoms showing that block to the north west..
..good example of the 5 wave pattern there with the trough to our south east and north or north easterly air flow possible..as indicated by the mslp anoms..
..both at 850 hpa and 2m temps wrong colour of average..
..this translates to a very uninspiring temp on the ground..
...however in any sun i would think it would be a bit warmer than what is shown..particularly dependent on topography location and wind direction with south western areas favoured..
at least we wont have much rain ??
...well...not quite as much rain..again south western areas favoured...
..crucially from gardeners point of view will there be any frosts?
..with the exeption of couple of outliers i would say we would hopefully avoid a frost here in wgc although if the wind falls light it could be a close run thing..
..this signal for below average 850s pretty consistent to varying degrees over the models now and the gesf mspl showing why for the 26th..
...however looking on the more positive side the Atlantic looks stonewalled as @Mike Poole stated earlier and it wouldnt take a lot to tweak that high to have more influence over the uk and thus reduce the nne wind flow ...longer days..growing strength of the sun...enjoy the spring and make the most of any brighter/ drier slots if you can...have a good day...
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Disappointed with all the cloud...i was under the impression it would be quite a sunny day today...latest sat not that encouraging in that regard though....
..air feels warmer though....
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Be interesting to see where this gfs12z op lies in the ens ??
Ouch.....
...has been hints after the higher pressure spell in the south later next week of a north westerly as next ridge moves in but this must be the extreme edge of the envelope...
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Allseasons-Si sorry to hear that ....did wonder where you were..hope your OH is not suffering too much and that her situation can improve..certainly could do with an improvement with the weather..looks more promising ..all be it temporary with increasing hp influence to the south on the gfs 18z..
..resulting in a warm up..
...but more importantly a dry up...how long for though is the question...
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Yes more encouraging gfs12z run for warmer and drier weather towards mid month....
..mean 850s a healthy plus 5 for almost 5 days and the op/ control north of that at times..
..mean pressure now upto 1025mbs..
..both geo potential and mslp anoms showing more of a traditional weather pattern ..
...resulting in a more traditional nw se rain distribution..
...and somewhat warmer temps..
...this is a trend that has been increasing for a while now so...here's hoping for some good drying weather ...
ecm....
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Well happy Easter everyone...hope you have a good Easter Sunday if you can..was hoping for a bit of sun today...but dull and gloom so far..yesterday was a lovely day with some decent sun and nice to see that blue sky again..
..as for the models...sadly no change really in this very unsettled weather pattern with the 'trough sandwich' extending from the west/south west over the uk at times with consequent run of low pressures moving in to influence our weather...
...even at day 10 the trough still much in existence as per gefs 0z ..
..as a result lot more rain for most for next 10 days at least..
...France, Low countries and particularly north west Spain/Portugal also getting significant rain although notably most of the Med significantly drier..
..although wet it does look as so it will warm up a bit ..
Gefs 2m temp anom for 6th to 11th April showing positive anoms extending from the south over much of the uk..so in any sun it should feel quite warm actually..
..what is also noticeable about the next 10 days or so is the higher levels of certainty for this weather pattern in the ens..
Gefs 0z
Eps
...grim really but just got to hope like yesterday that those drier and warmer days become more frequent between the downpours...
..have a good day...
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well another dull morning to wake up to..10mm more rain having fallen during the night...over 45mm of rain just in the last 3 days here !...
Are we still on course for some more settled weather...?..yes as others have stated looking better for next week...after the bank hol of course..
Latest gefs mspl goes from this on Monday..
..to this by Wednesday...
...rise in pressure pretty certain now..
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...orientation not though which will determine how settled and warm it will be..however temps above average looks a fair bet according to gefs 0z 850s mean heading into mid May and beyond..
...also noticeable the rise in minema over the period..
..so while the week after next is still uncertain re wet/dry hopefully there wont be any shocks now re colder temps again..
..indeed the gfs control going for the heat later in the run..
..trough over spain and wrap around of warm air to the north..like current set up however further south..
..hoping the easterly 'rain' train terminates soon as ground is like putty and difficult to work with when gardening..so...drier weather...bring it on..cant come soon enough..have a good day and good weekend if you can...