minus10

March 28

Cloud 10 yes the difference clearly shown up on the 850s between the north and south..

...as well as snow there would be a lot more rain with that set up...just what we dont need....

March 27

The soaking continues ..

Gefs 0z showing total prec from 27th March to 12th April...anything from 50mm to 100mm or more countrywide...

..one consulation is quite a lot of it will be warm rain...particularly further south..

..animation 2m anoms shows that with a couple of exceptions where colder air attemps to move in it will be fairly mild...indeed warm in any sun...

850s also showing this..

...with the orientation of the trough promoting south west winds ..

..just suffecient higher than average pressure to the north west to keep the trough locked in at that positive angle ..

...another 11mm rain last night, 62 mm so far this month here in wgc after February 's record breaking 120 mm..cant remember a period where rain has been so incessant..

...yesterday morning was lovely ..warm sun on my back , clear blue skies...really felt like Spring /early summer...maybe we will have a bit more of that over the Easter weekend however next few days of volatile weather to get through first...looking forward to some interesting skies though..

March 24

Sherry yes...at the top...

...large uncertainty by then though, however the mean is somewhat higher so maybe the op is leading the way...

March 24

Well week to 10 days of grotty or interesting weather coming up...depending on your opinion...certainly potential for some vigourous convection should the stronger sun show itself..actually feels quite warm out of the wind in the sun...

..any evidence of northern blocking becoming well established as we go into April?..

Well...favourable MJO...fairy amplified phase 7 and 8..

...and coming to the end of a major SSW..

...even after recovery vortex remains weak at 10hpa..

..will these translate into that northern blocking..?

..Certainly initially blocking looks to take hold to the north west..however what about longer term well into April..?

GEFS 0z doesnt think so...

...if anything higher than average heights to the south being modelled..

...of course looking longer ahead is always fraught with risk however if this were to be correct () then maybe we can look forward to the weather becoming a bit warmer and drier as we go deeper into April..

2m temp anoms warming up...

...however still a lot of rain to get through by the looks of it according to GEFS 0z ..

...if anything the eps is slightly colder on the mean 850s into April compared to Gefs..

..so while not the best from a dry warmer perspective there perhaps is a bit of hope on the horizon...according to the Gefs.....will need to keep a watch on that blocking response to see if, when and where it sets up as that is crucial....

@Cambrian...i think i will continue to be wearing my gardening beanie for now...looks better than my sun protector anyway !

March 20

Lovely to see the sun...actually feels quite warm out there...giving those spring flowers a boost...Magnolias particulary good this year...but. .make the most of it if models are to be believed although still some sun at the weekend but cooler and of course.. showers...

March 16

Notable that this is the second gefs 850s run where the mean has dipped lower than it has been for some time around 24th...as it has been fairly rock solid in following the long term average recently...

...pressure ens not enthusiastic about raising pressure over the uk with the run wanting the Atlantic trough to dig south..

...leading to higher pressure capping the uk to the north as illustrated on the anoms...

...for those...including myself wanting a more prolonged warmer and drier spell this isnt the best...however just one Gfs run...just have the nagging feeling that the current ssw will have an impact that is not wanted as we head into late March/ April..hope i am wrong unless it works for us in a drier and warmer sense...

March 12

Hands up...who is fed up with this rain???..another washout this morning...as for the sun...l presume its still there...somewhere...

March 10

Well if its dryer weather you are looking for i think the 12z gefs is looking reasonable...

..the accumulated precip until 25th showing an improving picture with a return to more standard fayre with the north west south east distribution of rainfull..

...also temps look reasonable with average to only a degree or so below average for 850s by the last week of March..

..which results in actual average to above average 2m temps given time of year...

...on a broader scale the gefs not really showing any dramatic response to the current ssw if its (poleward) blocking you are looking for.. (yet)

...current predicted height anoms showing mild to warm for the uk i would think...

..benign and fairly warm in the south as is shown on the gfs op 12z..

...of course it could still change for the end of the month...with the ongoing ssw, however really hoping now that this being modelled is the way forward..

..the ens mean show next week warmer then back to lt average or just below which at this time of year is pretty reasonable...less rain spikes to..

..after todays Mothering Sunday washout i really hope for warmer and drier weather...the cold weather ship has sailed as far as i am concerned and i am a coldie ...also as a gardener really do need to see some drier weather at least as the ground is still saturated around here and in the south generally.. ..hope springs eternal...

March 10

Well i must say what a miserable mothering Sunday...dark , dismal, wet and cold....really hope we can have a major pattern change to something drier and warmer soon...not counting on it though...happy mothers day to all those busy mums out there...try and enjoy despite the weather...

March 8

Crazy spread...from +14 to - 13 850s !!

March 4

Rain All Night yes now in zonal wind reversal territory...

...expect to see some eractic model runs turning up...perhaps....

March 3

Mike Poole Thats just crazy...1 minute.....not expert in this but dont current model runs take a few hours?..this AI has the potential to revolutionalise the way modelled forecasting is produced...i should imagine far less computing power is needed although the AI still needs the input of traditional nwp runs..historical to inform its continual learning...but will there come a time when that is not required ?...

March 3

Incredible...wettest February since records started in 1856 here in the south according to the met..

..also much warmer than average more broadly..

...my own very untechnical rain guage recorded 120mm rain for February or 110mm upto 28th as this year is a leap...well over twice the average for this area..and another 22mm so far for March..

..weidly woke up to a frost and mist this morning ....

...ground is so saturated though...as others have said desperately need period of dry weather...with some sun would be nice...as a gardener sodden ground makes usually enjoyable work very challenging...

..am i hopefull?..well a good start would be to see elimination of those rain spikes on the model runs...

....mmm...oh well there is another SSW on the way apparently...

...interestingly the latest ecm zonal wind chart keeps winds reversed from about 5th to 29th of this month...maybe enough time to promote some blocking that will enable drier weather to take hold...lets hope so, particularly for gardeners and growers..

February 29

Cheshire Freeze

..yes looking closer at the uk gfs0z it is a very wet picture for sw areas and pretty wet from north Wales down to London for next couple of weeks..

..no wonder with this being continually being shown on gfs..

...as i alluded to yesterday the position of the blocking high failing to prevent the atlantic trough from coming up around the base to south western areas..

..those precip spikes keep appearing..

..ec maybe bit drier but fair few rain spikes on the ens..

...the drier spell many , including me are hoping for still not looking certain...

February 28

Well clear signal for the scandi high this morning...gfs,ecm and gem 0z

..even in the means..

..problem is the previous hoped for drier picture not looking so secure now as with this pattern throughs are moving ese around the block with potential for more unsettled and cool weather..

...rain spikes keep appearing later in the runs..

...Pressure ens not indicative of longer periods of dry settled weather either..although significant uncertainty later on as you would expect...

...lets just hope it is not going to be miserable March...

February 25

Another trough dropped down and nowhere to go on the gfs 12z...

February 24

Dramatic difference in ecm0z and gfs6z day 10...

..whats going on??

February 23

Gfs keener to bring in the block from the ene...6z..day 10

...although chilly in.any wind with perhaps frosty nights it should feel nice in the strengthening sun...and best of all..should be dry ..

...ecm still not so keen presently..

February 22

Main thing of concern down here in the south is the amount of rain...another 12mm here today...thoroughly miserable day...ground beyond saturated...

...so far this month here as recorded by my highly untechnical rain guage we have had 106mm...and eight of the last ten months well over 60mm rain has fallen..

..hoping as per gfs 12z fi that this will allow some drying out..

...however accumulated prec charts for day 10 gfs and ecm still show south and west catching lions share of the rain..

...and a very wet France, particularly the south and northern tip of Iberia...

...some hints at higher pressure according to the ens..

....although as seems to happen a lot lately with the gfs op it is an outlier later in the run.

..all a bit tenuous....

...no longer interested in cold now...just want some dry or at least drier weather to be able to get out into the gardens....

February 15

Dennis looks like you have been left on your own mate !

...good for you...keep flying the cold flag...

..edit see @Rain All Nightbeat me to it....

February 15

LRD wasnt suggesting you were mate..

February 15

LRD yes..take your point...i have probably been as guilty as others at taking pressure anoms too much at face value..need to use them in conjunction with other charts....

TIdbits has mslp contours and anomalies..

..this illustrates your point nicely with the low to the south of Greenland..however would be good if there was a chart that showed height anomalies together with mslp...i am not aware of one but i may have missed it...

February 14

12z Gesf's 850s showing the lessening of the cold signal for the last week of Feb or so...

...although still represents a cooler than average period nothing exceptional...although op and control dipping later...

..the pressure shows the the op to be at lower end eg trough further south than the mean ...

...mean more in line with the way ecm has been going...

...not very encouraging for the last chance saloon for cold...

...the anoms still showing an atlantic ridge towards end of the month..

...trough to the east and over north eastern Canada but what jumps out at you is the trough over the Aleuticians..bit of a monster and responsible for real cold over that area...

...the amount of above average temps over Europe and Eurasia is quite incredible by late February..

...the Tropical Tidbits animation of temp anomalies over the hemisphere really shows the problem with getting cold in from a uk point of view..

850s

2m

..the real cold is being shunted east over siberia and round to the Aleuticians and although the Atlantic ridge and trough over our part of the world is bringing sonewhat colder air it seems to be being watered down over time..

..the main takeaway though is just the amount of warmth in the atmosphere over our side of the hemisphere..very hard i think to get any meaningfull cold with this situation..and time fast running out...