Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

minus10

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,378

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Posts posted by minus10

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Todays check on the ens height anoms modelled for 07th Jan..

    Gfes, Eps, Geps 0z..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53(1).thumb.png.52cec973d981509af19c4290b0dc2a3c.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_53.thumb.png.ca38f3fefd37e36dfdc0aae1206e79d9.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_53.thumb.png.ed4e34c5a75f4cc861bba7fd7dadd721.png

    Gefs still the clearest i think re the distinct signal for the height anoms towards Greenland, Eps is more diffuse although core is still shown to the south of Greenland..

    ..going on a couple more days the signal if anything intensifies for Gefs and Eps..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(4).thumb.png.c74465c4055f17e7ba582be48ddd90a3.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_61(9).thumb.png.834702809b62205a55a0384d8ea3cb1e.png

    ..so basic signal still largely intact i would say although the eps /ec is showing that it is certainly not clear cut yet...things could still evolve the wrong way for cold as others are saying as this is still some way ahead in weather terms but, while being realistic, i will continue to have hope..which is what you need ..particularly at this time of year..

    ..would just like to add my best wishes for a happy Christmas and 2024...credit to posters like @MATTWOLVES 3 who despite all they are having to contend with still manage to remain positive and provide positive vibe to others on here. This forum is so addictive and provides a nice relief from lifes' 'issues' that we all have to contend with...caring for sick elderly people and people with mental health issues is tough as i only know too well ..

    ..lastly thanks also to the posters who give up their time to explain the complexities of the atmosphere in easier terms...and it needs to be easy for me to understand 😄..it is much appreciated and i realise i still have much to learn..

    Have a lovely Christmas day if you can...

     

     

     

     

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Another look at the 0z Gfes, Eps and Geps forecast for 0z on 7th January..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57(1).thumb.png.55d8031ced0974d95b5916b45c82d6f1.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_57(1).thumb.png.a48221755201cfd433627d795012fcde.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_57(1).thumb.png.0d2ae945a1ea4725ea924484d6fed2f4.png

    ...the Gefs showing the strongest and identifiable heights anom to the north west...also lower Iberian heights being shown on Gefs and Geps now although still only average...gefs and geps also showing the stronger lower heights to the east...variations as you would expect however basic pattern with the mid to north atlantic block i would argue is still being shown..onward..🤞

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    For patterns or trends i think this is the one i shall be watching everyday for the ens pattern as forecast for January 7th 0z to see if the currently modelled nh pattern can be held and even strengthened if we are to get better chance of colder weather in January..

    Gefs, Eps and Geps 0z 23 / 12

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61(1).thumb.png.fd96b5c0b2fc2f04a319945e3e9731d5.pngeps_z500a_nhem_61(8).thumb.png.a13bb00317130f5317d812e748fec2db.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_61.thumb.png.c8187a5b4832066b2c924c8264d521b1.png

    Eps appears to have the strongest North Atlantic height anomaly while Gefs has reduced the anomaly to the south/Iberia...all showing lower heights over southern Europe

    ...broadscale  pattern fairly intact though..checking in again tomorrow for 0zs

     

     

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well its only the gfs6z but....Is this the one??...or is this run a one off??

    ens_image-2023-12-22T142821_322.thumb.png.66ab1af81a1b68a1c90a1722bdfdbe23.png

    ens_image-2023-12-22T142801_888.thumb.png.1a48f780f99ce9939963601e1a4a1f44.png

    ...quite a downward change in the ens...

    ..much better NH pattern with this too..

    gfsnh-12-354(2).thumb.png.64113906575c229bdc453b6a72524717.png

    ..indicative of a pattern change?...too early to say but good to see all the same..

    ..will want to keep seeing this mean become a trend also...

    gensnh-31-5-360(2).thumb.png.173bddf55c94e9a0bd1c9363b1fccb85.png

    ..been very deflating of late if looking for cold..but maybe ...🤞🤞...onto 12zs

     

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The 12 z Anomalies and the latest Cpc 6 to 10 day which just about includes the 25th are..if my understanding is correct.. showing a stiff west north westerly on Christmas day with northern areas seeing some wintery weather in particular however further south couldnt be ruled out ...exposed north western high ground favoured ..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41(1).thumb.png.17a8694ee7602607d0651f6ab4377c12.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_41(2).thumb.png.f5ab8644ae9f6c2d3a0bb8b0d2e84c60.png

    610day.03(6).thumb.gif.ef440ff1332b740dd4e2609f93d2bd6c.gif

    ...of note is the height anomaly over Canada/ North America and also the Iberian height anomaly which is still plaguing the output....

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just to show the change that has occured in the model run suite in the last week..

    ..here is what i posted on 8th December for the Gefs and Eps forecast for  23 /24th December compared to the latest predictions..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(2).thumb.png.14021e92713177130fb66c2d2ba43412.png

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_38(1).thumb.png.53963a5315cb527a040ab7f08191b598.png

     

    eps_z500a_nhem_61(7).thumb.png.0cb7b2d3d4fedeaf0479a011582be472.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_33(1).thumb.png.a019e794690154832fcebf9856c760b2.png

    ...so even with general agreement for the basic pattern in the ens back on 8th December  ...of course its evolved...

    ...whats clear as others have stated is the failure to pick up the more extensive southern heights for extended period ens forecasts...let alone ops...so although some basic similarities in the hemispheric pattern, the increase in southern heights and corresponding increased horizontal allignment of the trough has made all the difference..now...we await for further evolutions......

     

    • Like 4
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Apologies if these have been posted already...gfs6z. Ecm0z, gem0z ens..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(2).thumb.png.6d591b805457830a57c21c109a6eb5ee.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_61(7).thumb.png.a06a46920f0b60f559cd99192d2d4f9b.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.25aa3f62548b7f3d7ff21223e29e4f9f.png

    ...now of course this is FI at the end of the runs ...start of Christmas ...sack of salt to melt the ice etc...however what struck me is how similar in the broad scale of things these charts are..as @Cambrian referred to in a.previous post a basic two wave pattern with the urals high and Aleutian low, Atlantic block and Euro trough...accepting it is way out in FI and things will change...the fact that more than one model is showing this pattern i feel bodes well for increasing chance of favourable macro synoptics to be present late December...given the teleconnective drivers being/becoming more positive for cold

    ...of course no guarantees...the ens could and will change and this pattern on the microscale may not fall right for us however if this general theme can keep going ...everyday increasing the chances further..... even the met may start to alter their assessment..as ever more runs needed....interesting model viewing times..

    Btw...thanks to the many posters on here explaining in more detail many aspects of the drivers and processes..very informative..

     

     

    • Like 12

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    Yes interesting to see the Gfs, Ecm and Gem 0z all showing the same basic pattern upto the festive period for 850s..

    ens_image-2023-12-07T104207_018.thumb.png.258e296282c784c599bb7edb2d196090.png

    ens_image-2023-12-07T104233_471.thumb.png.54c9e7a72d4e451e7b695940980459ed.png

    ens_image-2023-12-07T104256_472.thumb.png.f5ae542a9307b27481ddf09401cbe4ff.png

    ...so, as others have said, perhaps confidence growing  that after this wet period the strongly signalled high will dry things up but also warm things up for a while...but then...still with less confidence at this range there is a signalled cool down towards Christmas as the high moves to a position letting in cooler/colder air...from which direction still to be decided...one to watch..

    • Like 8
×
×
  • Create New...