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minus10

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    This is a really great mean from the gefs, there should be another great set of cold runs in the graph later

    gensnh-31-1-126.png

    Yes...what sticks out for me is the way the means are almost leading the way for cold...if that makes sense..

    ens_image-2023-11-22T104804_629.thumb.png.fa5f313e56426265842b696bd09b44bd.png

    ens_image-2023-11-22T104824_811.thumb.png.fb488edb925e66017032ab2790eed4b4.png

    ...both the 0z gefs and ec above show this..its not just the op being an outlier with the rest of the ens being nearer the LT average...they are down there too!..

    ..with these from the 0z anoms for 1st December..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_39(1).thumb.png.31c51b6aa5c26e389919840ddc801afb.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_39.thumb.png.43398bef7e052464170732401930e6ba.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_39.thumb.png.6d245c5cbf034bd200c650491ff65ebc.png

    ..seems a fairly consistent and strong signal for colder weather ..however we know that things can ( and probably will) change but ...hey ...great model viewing at present..

     @Allseasons-si  .....sorry to hear that mate...was wondering where you were at a time like this ..glad to hear you are feeling better..

     

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well as others have said i think its clear whatever else happens the set up with higher than average pressure over the Atlantic and lower than average pressure to the east will provide colder than average conditions with frosts...dependent on cloud cover caught up in the pattern....until beginning of December at least.

    Gefs 6z/ec 0z 500 means / anoms..

    gensnh-31-1-240(15).thumb.png.3fc8d43cc82a10d214e4529533609a23.png

    gensnh-31-5-240(21).thumb.png.a26862b848121955a5304adfe28483a0.png

    EDH1-240(13).thumb.gif.fd9f8bbda3b7af0090ac6f4e4c78ba0f.gif

    EDH101-240(28).thumb.gif.8a2b5bf1d3e13d9b18b1640fdda2b790.gif

    Gefs 6z/ Ec 0z 850 anoms..

    gensnh-31-6-240.thumb.png.bb224062a86b3ba224e09c534fc996b1.png

    EDH100-240.thumb.gif.9a19dcea6dc770acb4815f189472ca4c.gif

    ..this can also be seen with the NOAA anoms...(yesterday)

    610day.03(3).thumb.gif.4502e9ba43b70ee5b41597763a503b66.gif

    ...it will be nice to have some more seasonal drier weather..spoiler i suspect being the cloud drifting down from the north on the eastern side...hopefully this wont be too much of a problem...looking forward to doing those autumn gardening jobs now..😀

    20231121_124020.thumb.jpg.2356de219a3b249b1b460ae2b4a91bb9.jpg

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