Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

minus10

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,378

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Posts posted by minus10

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Phew !... 🥵...hard to keep pace with the threads and all that is going on..

    Nice set of ensembles..

    Gfs, Ecm and Gem..

    ens_image-2024-01-08T132501_392.thumb.png.1df9f3b7c8ba6eb3b1b7609c11198420.png

    ens_image-2024-01-08T132534_921.thumb.png.15959194e662b3a121b88eadd47571ee.png

    ens_image-2024-01-08T133034_806.thumb.png.65e2f64aaab8d9977f9022a08732d518.png

    ..the amomalies still look solid for Ingham day...(15th)

    Gfs, Eps , Gem

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_28.thumb.png.62f6e829dfb600ef066ef64a3aff595f.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_31(2).thumb.png.e64477a14647e0db432748e88aa5b129.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_31.thumb.png.eab31ec7f89f96a3cc3c1452ee20b55d.png

    ..and i saw some snow grains this morning to boot...

    ..feels proper cold out there..home made soup day for sure..😃

    ..right...now ...must check the radar..

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

    I don't think we have seen so much data come together to support the trend to a notable cold spell.

    Everything from weakening zonal winds in the Stratosphere to all the operational runs supported by the ensembles are all pointing in this direction.

    Hopefully I haven't jinxed it but is quite remarkable to see this level of support.

    Yes i dont think i remember a time when so much data is pointing in the same direction now in support of  turning colder...incredible ensemble modelling in particular...

    Cant add much else...with just the hope that it all 'hangs together ' for next few days ..

    Will just leave these...they speak for themselves..

    ens_image-2024-01-03T204956_472.thumb.png.cb93e8aaf9656377576ab71ddec92244.png

    ens_image-2024-01-03T204936_354.thumb.png.b2c73244a6b75d1e1b1f97e095d7c348.png

    ...love the vibe on the forum tonight..

    istockphoto-1455226511-612x612.thumb.jpg.c2ebd20c5b6c51eb0a75dafd43d21558.jpg

    ..hopefully....🤞

     

     

    • Like 9
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well i looked at some of the earlier posts in the early stages of gfs12z run and they were quite sobering so came off for while...then went back on later and saw this..

    animzgr1.thumb.gif.b4708aad41ac41a629e5a19b40e7bbfd.gif

    ...lovely movement in the yellow blob retro to Greenland...amazing greenland high being modelled..

    gfsnh-0-324(3).thumb.png.a69fb4c9cb89ad0a9d1f7a4376e5ce6a.png

    ..its there on the mean ...

    gfsnh-0-324(3).thumb.png.a69fb4c9cb89ad0a9d1f7a4376e5ce6a.png

    ..lovely charts...getting closer...

    gensnh-31-1-276.png

    • Like 10
    • Insightful 1
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All good so far for the general theme of turning colder...

    ens_image-2024-01-02T120307_024.thumb.png.b15f1b7565b9ec574cfb75be10a7354c.png

    ens_image-2024-01-02T120332_058.thumb.png.c18cc5e97c167215abdd3416b095b0bc.png

    ens_image-2024-01-02T121245_038.thumb.png.5f4da3edeb2fa203aed97b8fe2243646.png

    ..the double dip showing nicely in the eps, geps and gefs..

    Anons still look strong for mid month..eps and gefs..

    eps_z500a_nhem_55(2).thumb.png.28dffb92cc8f9ebb9c204806e7af0596.png

    eps_mslpa_nhem_55.thumb.png.96fc1c2463760e5383763886751cc075.png

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52.thumb.png.d145eb9c926a68c3bae2b02994dac68d.png

    gfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_52.thumb.png.348a8f7926d56b58ba30b1b6ab1739f8.png

    ...and thats a pretty good gefs mean for 14th January...

    gensnh-31-1-288.thumb.png.8d85fbd60b4eb7453231a344556fb319.png

    ...so broadscale looking good...finer details still tbc...

    In the short term..eg today as well as the copious rains i will have to batten down the hatches here..

    Screenshot_20240102_121543_Chrome.thumb.jpg.5ee53406040721b39b4a677acfd01ad4.jpg

    ..stay safe ..

     

    • Like 10
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Oh man stop it my IBS is startin to play up again as im getting nervous after that run from the icon!!im just farting away right now lol and on the edge!!!!need gfs to improve asap!!!!!stilll trying to hold it down from my end wary of being let down again but we are still in it somehow!!!!gfs running👀......

    Too much info....🤣

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    They say getting winter into this country is now impossible!

    I tell you what's even more impossible! Getting some positivity and patience into this forum on the....wait for it 31st December!

    It's gradually becoming colder...surface cold will most likely come into play here..beyond that the situation perhaps gets more exciting!

    New years resolution....I must have a little more patience...no more Amazon shopping I'll walk to the nearest warehouse and get it myself...yeh it might take longer..but the outcome is still the same...the goods arrive in the end...😉

    Much love as always.

    mogreps850london.png

    mogreps850birmingham.png

    mogreps850leeds.png

    Mogreps are definately 'getting down'...thanks Matt for all your great uplifting posts throughout the year...hope new year is better for you..

    ..well despite details still to be ironed out it still looks like 6th or 7th it starts to turn colder...looking further ahead towards mid month  the signs of colder than average weather remain..

    Eps 500 0z anoms..

    eps_z500a_nhem_54.thumb.png.a9bb1691a68f5c2d5b36870083d938af.png

    ...showing considerable area of above average heights to nw and below average heights to the east from Baltics to med.

    looking deeper...at the mslp and anoms it still shows plenty of HP stretching up to the pole and low pressure trough to the east..although conditions on the ground will vary according to actual synoptic patterns...

    eps_mslpa_nhem_54.thumb.png.aadb1856e98253cb91a2fe09ab6e56d1.png

    the 850 temp anoms also show quite a large area of colder than average stretching from the Baltics and east down to the med and of course covering the uk..

    eps_T850a_nhem_54.thumb.png.f0a11f1f9c31319f98f1aebd3a371ab2.png

    Wanted to post the gefs but for some reason the download froze...anyway point is i think once the colder than average weather arrives it will be with us for at least a couple of weeks if not longer..actual details will eb and flow and of course how cold and whether there is snow..however this is a better position to be in than a bog standard zonal westerly going on for weeks...

    ..finally just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year..hope those that are suffering can look forward to better times...and a thank you to all posters on here for making this forum as good as it is..the ups and downs all part of it...also thanks again to the educational posters ..you know who you are..i have learnt a lot but still of course..learning..

    ...have a good evening...☕️🍷🍻

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53 (2).png

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    0z Ens anoms still solid with nw higher heights signal for the 7th..

     

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_33.thumb.png.b8db9e563e4cde0b63869b372940fa84.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_33.thumb.png.6a2d95089c75449c165fa0b5649cd742.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_34.thumb.png.3a28c3a129c3f0fb28168dfb6efb867b.png

    ...and a little later even stronger with more emphasise on lower than average heights over Europe/ Iberia..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_49(2).thumb.png.648879a52661533cf49b8a38c12b70b0.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65(2).thumb.png.10fc5ea7fd5ef0d566d619ca53b3edb4.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.1c3bcb6d2f232d79252d5e4e8466b680.png

    Eps looking particularly strong for the heights and the trough...

    Ensembles still.looking fairly solid for at least a colder spell..

    Gefs 0z and 6z so far..

    ens_image-2023-12-30T115854_224.thumb.png.8e67106cebf2bbd82b227995d3052ae2.png

    ens_image-2023-12-30T115912_546.thumb.png.49af06df1440653965237d5a580779c6.png

    Ec 0z.

    ens_image-2023-12-30T115820_032.thumb.png.138076065e28eb0f82124341dcc030a9.png

    ...good to see the ensemble signal staying strong and with the better ecm op this morning....looking more promising but still some time to go..so..steady as she goes...🤞

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Checking in again on ens anoms for 7th..

    Gefs, Eps, Geps 0z

     

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_38(2).thumb.png.59b5e8b6aea930cc579b5a164db66798.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_37.thumb.png.4414e14906785c3ea54be29505736a07.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_37.thumb.png.c1c462362f57f496bf85ab5090a33f9a.png

    ..signal for higher than average pressure to nw still there..just get the feeling that it is getting a little put back..geps keen on troughing which is still to clear at this time..

    ..eps ensemble graph still showing a more bullish colder turn from 6th or so this morning..

    ens_image-2023-12-29T091918_156.thumb.png.930fe057abc9d31474ee2902635f4dbf.png

    Gefs mean also lower than average...

    ens_image-2023-12-29T100439_597.thumb.png.f8b6eaba9b74906e97e7546f899df5ee.png

    ...as others note the ops and means looking to go the way perhaps of a uk high...so change of sorts still likely..cooler or cold?..drier?..hopefully..we will see..

     

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well interesting that ukmo is keen to push in hp wedge from north east...won to watch perhaps..

    ukmonh-0-132.thumb.png.b795e5ace154275c2e1510a12921ba96.png

    ukmonh-0-144.thumb.png.c6f777a742782f56587abdce37afb2cd.png

    ...meanwhile we end up with a uk high on the gfs..... it is not a bad position to be in..

    gfsnh-0-360(3).thumb.png.80531e9b7b09294f5a930af060578360.png

    ...opportunities to build north east..as for once Iberia high not an issue...

    ..gfes 850s looking reasonable..

    ens_image-2023-12-28T180610_018.thumb.png.8e53ba8a0d46ae7c6c10443e497ebc10.png

    ..certainly going for the rise in pressure ..

    gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(47).thumb.jpeg.05a8754e46e89099bc384c6072d84c63.jpeg

    ..so all in all not a bad place to be..a work in progress and facinating model viewing...ecm next

    • Like 3
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    While the ops are more changeable than the weather (er 🤔),..

    gfsnh-0-384(14).thumb.png.105780893c2af69c3241784c93063a8e.png

    gfsnh-0-384(13).thumb.png.7f6944eee2c6a2a5656dba1f2a264b91.png

     

    the ens anoms still with the higher than average heights to the north west pattern for January..

    Gefs, Eps , Geps 0z..7th Jan

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41(2).thumb.png.e4fedcaf8d7d2df9571e7d89c8e0f5c5.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_41(3).thumb.png.069913679c574c1769a37c2cd335fdb7.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.59dc5cc9e5da08d5766ed23cf0e3c00f.png

    ...this ens signal has been consistent for a number of days now and although it doesnt guarantee full on winter it is i think significant of that pattern change once we get into January proper...

    ..indeed Eps 0z even stronger a further few days on..

    eps_z500a_nhem_61(10).thumb.png.bfa0a9739806959a5a357704f4d304c2.png

    ..looking at this 850s chart eps also showing pretty strong signal for downward trend ..

    0z

    ens_image-2023-12-28T122036_790.thumb.png.9b513f12b12ccde562db6f3d6805b321.png

    Gefs not as strong however mean still colder than average which is better than being warmer than average..

    6z

    ens_image-2023-12-28T122105_211.thumb.png.1f396a607d650ff625af8aaab87c2703.png

    ...factor in the background situation as very well explained by our more experienced posters then ..still all to play for as i see it......

     

     

    • Like 10

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Busy in here this morning...🥵Looking again at the geo height anoms as predicted for January 7th..

    Gefs, Eps, Geps 0z

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.a87d2f4070721a3cc24f459212d20010.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_46(3).thumb.png.37764289b65455a62d8ddb8c84189634.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_45.thumb.png.c01d48730fabba4213542a563cac4f01.png

    ...signal for height rises still good with gfes strongest...also noticeable how the European trough is getting more pronounced now...gefs showing lower than average heights over Iberia too..

    ..no other comments as others have covered this well ..interesting to note though signal increases for gefs and geps a few days later..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(5).thumb.png.c178cd404029950c0d9bbbe847c990c5.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65(1).thumb.png.9f22ab43180fb9ca49f3b4de40907861.png

     

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    Wet but maybe mild into the New Year. I can't view my normal data as I'm currently in hospital with Covid my symptoms are potentially life threatening,  I'm just comfortable at the moment and having oxygen I'm struggling to breathe. 

    I keep looking at the charts occasionally,  I've heard chat of a cold mid January fingers crossed 🤞 

    24010109_2512.gif

    So sorry to hear that....i know what it feels like having breathing problems...wish you a speedy recovery...take care and keep looking at those charts if you can 🙂

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...