minus10

February 13

daz_4 they are 2m

temps....here's the uppers..

February 12

Gefs 12zstill continuing with the colder conditions for last week of February..

Slightly earlier the mean going below the long term average today..towards 22nd Feb..

...its quite incredible though how different the 12z op is ..just continuing with that raging vortex to the north west..

....and now as others have stated the ecm too..

...although promise in the extended per the clusters...

...the long and winding garden path ??...

February 11

The gefs 12z still showing the colder pattern for last week of Feb..

this is what i am checking now to see if this stays in the modelling or gets put back/watered down etc..kind of last chance saloon really..

...looking at the 850s 12z today compared to yesterday for when the mean drops though the long term mean to get an idea whether this is remaining or being pushed back...

...berween 22nd and 23rd still seems time slot for this...however we shall see...interesting ecm 12z though..

February 10

Does seem like endlessly chasing the pot of 'cold' at the end of the rainbow...

Gefs 12z still wanting to cool down for the last few days of Feb..850 anoms

...homing in on Europe..

...note how Scandi going into the freezer again..what a winter they have had...not a million miles away distance wise but the difference couldnt be more stark ...

...nw height rises and Scandi/ European trough still being signalled the cause of the modelled cooldown..

...trough position not perhaps completely ideal but hey...would be an improvement on current synoptics...

..north westerly to northerly i would think...

...we really need to see this signal not pushed back any further and if possible moved forward a day or five...encouraging that the ec clusters that Mike analysed also show quite a lot of nw blocking / heights so ...come on...one last push .....to get that cold at the end of this very long rainbow..

February 10

Gfs 12z showing nice retrogression of heights from the east to the west/ north west in second half of run...with the scandi/ European trough digging down...

February 9

Well looking at the anomalies it seems there is still a reasonable signal for those height rises to the north west later in the month..

Gefs6z/eps 0z

...basic pattern similar on a broad scale with a split vortex?..more of a trough over scandi down to Europe on the Eps..

...this height rise also shown on yesterdays cpc anoms..

..what does this mean for the airmass temp though..looking at 850 temp anoms for gefs/eps for the same time..

...seems that eps is more bullish with both the heat extending up into Siberia, heat over Greenland and Canada and also colder for the uk in general..

..looking at the surface...2m temp anoms..

...generally more heat around on the eps but also colder for most of the uk...interesting...as we know good broadscale synoptics often dont lead to colder air at 850 or indeed the surface but certainly on the anoms this colder signal for the uk is one we need to see gain traction..although overall it seems fairly tenuous when you consider the amount of heat also being shown..

...one last point...the last 4 gefs runs..

...ops aside...first sight they dont look that good however look closely and you can see the mean ever so slowly decreasing..back towards long term average and a bit below...also couple of ens hitting -14 850s in the latest...so if we are looking for trends then maybe this is a positive sign...fully understand that the situation is not good at present for cold with the many let downs...just trying to find evidence of more positive trends that could still deliver...

February 7

Looking at the gesf anoms 0z you could be forgiven for thinking that this is a good chart with blocking to the north west later this month..

...however all is not what it seems...it seems...i think as others have stated the blocking signal is there but it is not in the right place for the uk..too far north to be effective for cold. The trough underneath allowing milder air up from the south...

..the gefs mean also shows this...

More like an artic high ..while the op shows a meaty vortex again for around this time..only the op i know but talk about insult to injury!!

..in addition gfs op has been been at the higher end of the pack for a number of runs now with the mean also getting higher...

...this looks like a trend unfortunately...

Even the eps are milder...

..the EPS anoms (only going out to t270 at present on Titbits) also showing that north west hight rise but again looks like it will not be effective for delivering cold to the uk if it goes the same way as gefs..

..so although from a macro hemispheric perspective it may be going the way as dictated by the main drivers it seems as ever in the uk if the pieces dont fall right it wont make any difference...still can change of course and I really hope it does as would love to see a bit of proper cold before spring...but somehow i just feel it is slipping away...

...noticeable again this year the Daffs are up and out in some places...ground temps warmer than they should be...of course March colder snaps still likely and will cause problems for the flora...

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5032526

February 7

Looking at the gesf anoms 0z you could be forgiven for thinking that this is a good chart with blocking to the north west later this month..

...however all is not what it seems...it seems...i think as others have stated the blocking signal is there but it is not in the right place for the uk..too far north to be effective for cold. The trough underneath allowing milder air up from the south...

..the gefs mean also shows this...

More like an artic high ..while the op shows a meaty vortex again for around this time..only the op i know but talk about insult to injury!!

..in addition gfs op has been been at the higher end of the pack for a number of runs now with the mean also getting higher...

...this looks like a trend unfortunately...

Even the eps are milder...

..the EPS anoms (only going out to t270 at present on Titbits) also showing that north west hight rise but again looks like it will not be effective for delivering cold to the uk if it goes the same way as gefs..

..so although from a macro hemispheric perspective it may be going the way as dictated by the main drivers it seems as ever in the uk if the pieces dont fall right it wont make any difference...still can change of course and I really hope it does as would love to see a bit of proper cold before spring...but somehow i just feel it is slipping away...

...noticeable again this year the Daffs are up and out in some places...ground temps warmer than they should be...of course March colder snaps still likely and will cause problems for the flora...

February 6

Mike Poole It was interesting watching the met deep dive earlier where Aidan stated that the sudden change in the modelling of the low from taking it southeast to stalling it over the uk/ moving it north was resulted from a small increase in the modelled development of the low way back in the Atlantic which then resulted in it becoming larger and extending its influence of mild air thus displacing the cold air further north...again minute changes upstream resulting in huge changes downstream..thus effecting the surrounding synoptic response too...have to say that the gfs saw this a few days before the ec/ ukmo...is it better at picking up developments in the Atlantic...really shows how complex and sensitive the weather processes are...

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5032175

February 6

Mike Poole It was interesting watching the met deep dive earlier where Aidan stated that the sudden change in the modelling of the low from taking it southeast to stalling it over the uk/ moving it north was resulted from a small increase in the modelled development of the low way back in the Atlantic which then resulted in it becoming larger and extending its influence of mild air thus displacing the cold air further north...again minute changes upstream resulting in huge changes downstream..thus effecting the surrounding synoptic response too...have to say that the gfs saw this a few days before the ec/ ukmo...is it better at picking up developments in the Atlantic...really shows how complex and sensitive the weather processes are...

February 6

Well here we are again...snowlines ..20 or 50 miles north/south ......

...however gfs 6z fi interesting as others have said it does show the pattern change as highlighted by the seasonals and the anomalies...

....that R word again...RRRet...so although the next day or so still uncertainty abounds maybe this is one of those occasions where fi is more certain than the immediate...well...a little...perhaps ?..

February 3

Thats more like it!!

...yes in la la land but how often do you see a chart like this from any model ?

....nice to look at anyway...

February 1

Like the Gefs, the Eps showing clear signal for the trough also..

..uncertainty after but a general rise in pressure..

..solid dip in 850s also ..

...however on the rise later in the run but as Mike showed on the clusters large uncertainty by then..

...so a cold trough looks a good bet..how cold and type of precipitation and location still to be decided...

February 1

Pretty strong signal for the trough next week on the gefs

..also note the op and control in tandem for this period on the 850s..

..look forward to the eps later..

January 29

Gefs 12z there is a reasonable signal for colder later in run...op there isnt...

January 21

Well dont know how strong but the gusts really sound like they mean business here now in wgc...right next to a wood so sounds like freight trains..

January 21

Latest ukv..12z..

..based on that would have thought blanket amber however there must be other issues at play...

January 21

20 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Amber Warning extended to nearly all the UK. Never seen that before..

Interesting that the London area , parts of central and eastern areas only left out of the amber...what is it about this part of the country that would result in the winds being somewhat less strong given that parts of cambridgeshire are in the amber. .also given the large population of the London area and home counties which is as i understand is taken into account for the warnings...

January 21

Yes widespread wind event later today...wouldnt want to be travelling up or down the country later...

January 16

Signs of the north eastern amplification on the 12z gefs..

January 14

Well have to say that looking at this fax its a pity not more could be made of this set up for midweek snow in the south..

..three seperate frontal systems to the south !!...yet we will struggle to get a flake....although not if the bbc app for London is to be believed..

??

...return to mild has been well forcasted however very strong signal of this on the 0z eps

..vortex looking strong and robust for last week of February..its amazing how quick it has devoured the Greenland high...

...the anoms show some amplification at the end of the month but as currently shown it wont benefit us for cold..

...indeed could get quite mild for a while..although if the high anom keeps moving north it could then be more favourable for cold...

..so yes disappointing really as was hoping for more...however cold week coming up with some frosts and somewhere in uk will get snow. Got to hope that the favourable drivers kicking in again for late January / February as predicted do promote blocking in the right place for delivering cold and snow to the uk...not an easy task...enjoy what you can...

January 10

Wow...i think...

January 9

Looking at 12z 850 ens gfs, ecm and gem..

..what strikes me is how smooth the ecm ens are compared to the other two...smooth = cleaner?

...also how proportionately less milder ens there are in the period prior to the rise in the ecm op

...this looks a reasonably good signal in my opinion for cold at least till the 20th or so...

..like the cluster of ec ens with or below the mean in this period...

January 9

Yes the op is way up together with the control..

...good cluster below the mean ..

..is this a resolution issue with the gfs op..?..no because the control (lower res) is with it...so the last two runs showing the gfs op and control at the extreme warm end of the envelope..could be right of course..cant see it being maintained though unless the lower ens move up in future runs.....be interesting to see where the 12z ecm op and control is ..say...on the 18th..both high res as are all the ec ens...

January 8

Pretty good 12z eps so far ..flatlining op/ control and cluster below mean..

Sign In

Forums

Blogs

Gallery

Events

Learn About Weather and Meteorology

Community guides

Posts posted by minus10