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minus10

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    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The op is the high resolution run of the model. It takes into account more smaller scale effects. The control has the same starting data as the op but it is lower resolution. The rest of the ens are also lower resolution however their starting data has been tweaked to reflect the variable state of the atmosphere. If the op and control runs are close then you can have more confidence that variations in output are not due to resolution...BUT...ecm has been upgraded so now all the ens have the same resolution as the op..including the control which has become a de facto op...this intended to increase the accuracy of the model...hope that makes sense... 


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4970000

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Have noticed growing trend for high pressure over or around uk at t300 or so on gfs..

    Last 4 gefs..

    gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(39).thumb.jpeg.047dc994d7a0a9f2da3196af65a9fe03.jpeg

    gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(40).thumb.jpeg.dbe471a1b1096e1324f93d84be0fe442.jpeg

    gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(41).thumb.jpeg.f14f6982f6e99ab8dd40cacc82619e45.jpeg

    gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(42).thumb.jpeg.cf1c1b25061bef1a9029233fb3f5de88.jpeg

    ...the op erratically leading the way however the mean pressure also edging up..

    ...mild by day but fog/ frost at night perhaps cloud permitting..

    gfsnh-0-300(11).thumb.png.0144cef4f07fc597aaf7148c2d7a4ada.png

    ...not in the best position but could mean a drier spell towards last third of the month...

    ...not sure if anything can come of it though...

    ..looking at anom animation the higher pressure tends to build or drift north east with another area moving in from the Atlantic..

    animexe2.thumb.gif.9fa2085f7b9745c8fc43e1fea2644d11.gif

    ...maybe this can evolve into something more useful...maybe not..be interesting to see extended eps to see if supported...

    ...well i have to clutch at some straws! 🤣...

     

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The op is the high resolution run of the model. It takes into account more smaller scale effects. The control has the same starting data as the op but it is lower resolution. The rest of the ens are also lower resolution however their starting data has been tweaked to reflect the variable state of the atmosphere. If the op and control runs are close then you can have more confidence that variations in output are not due to resolution...BUT...ecm has been upgraded so now all the ens have the same resolution as the op..including the control which has become a de facto op...this intended to increase the accuracy of the model...hope that makes sense... 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just looking at the various latest ens they all show round about the same thing for t300..

    gensnh-31-5-300(9).thumb.png.8b9f09cb79d9a9298fb92f4568c469d6.png

    eps_z500a_nhem_51(1).thumb.png.76275f8eab3ef60384076317e82e896d.png

    gem-ens_z500a_nhem_51.thumb.png.27d44c18c17b1c5277244503b3378166.png

    ...the Aleutian low Urals/Barent sea core heights combo of sorts...and although heights also shown to the south west i would think this is the pattern we need to keep seeing to weaken the pv and lay the ground for potential future developements..

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ec 0z control (op) looking to find winter again in later stages...with a few cold ens in support..wide spread though reflective of mean hugging LT mean..

     

    ens_image-2023-12-03T115839_681.thumb.png.5db01e633606566f7c85ceb7ef7b8188.png

    ..will hopefully see this downward modelling in 850s ens increase in the extendeds in line with the drivers becoming more favourable as outlined in the informative posts of MattH , Catacol and others above...no guarantees of course but hopefully in a better position re drivers than last year...

    • Like 6

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Slidergate '17 said:

    Heavy again. Ridiculous event. Easy 5 inches laying now. Possibly more.

    Just dipping in from south east..wow..envious ( in a nice way)..what i find odd is just looking at latest met office video and presenter stated that showers 'perhaps' turning wintery over north western hills...and there was no reference to their own amber warning...not knocking met as i think they do a good job in general but this latest video forecast seems way out with what is going on...

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the 6z gfs  and 0z ec ens for Madrid you can see that while there is a modest increase in pressure the ops from both gfs and ecm are at higher end of the pack later on...

    gfs-madrid-es-405n-35w.thumb.jpeg.ad6ea3faccafc20ab5d0a1731d6d5a28.jpeg

    ecmwf-madrid-es-404n-36w.thumb.jpeg.b0b38999498b9bd6d3314f4d53fe55df.jpeg

    ...with 850 temps..

    ens_image-2023-12-02T133220_899.thumb.png.4db01184c6ab4d4865c689c1ca92ebce.png

    ens_image-2023-12-02T133112_858.thumb.png.d4e79ac899c66340bf7c60535f152eba.png

    ..while both are showing means above long term averages it is again the ops that are outliers ( the control on ec being the effective op)...so someway to go yet before we will no whether this...

    gfsnh-0-300(10).thumb.png.c36fc6d6c447ac751de88fe3f832e6dc.png

    ...will become reality...the ec clusters that Mike posted earlier showed many different options...

     

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GEFS 6z mean at T240 is quite markedly worse than the 0z mean in terms of getting the high building to our N:

    IMG_7883.thumb.png.15c033f24bd66ba18747df4ec09d758d.pngIMG_7865.thumb.png.de46af9cc227b26a9ca090655b1900aa.png

    Yes quite a shift or 'correction' this morning with the block being modelled further east....and with the exception of the two posters above ..😀.. this is definately not what we want to see creeping into the runs..

    gfsnh-0-300(9).png.3703c00925fe8fb04915b6d646edcde9.png

    • Like 10

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well the signal for the developement of a blocking high over north west Russia has been present on a number of Ecm runs now...

    animstk6.thumb.gif.c0d5949cade5d1b65413f1b327f3a50e.gif

    ...just watch how it evolves and extends west..

    animoyq2.thumb.gif.71a6a919d52f98bd655d3a1e5172f2a2.gif

    ...the vortex at this time displaced to other side of hemisphere..

    ECH1-240(21).thumb.gif.08271b24289e6fb4e9ca3bbe26330048.gif

     

    ...even gfs12z toying with the idea of more scandi based blocking later in run..

    gfsnh-0-330(4).thumb.png.e66cfe8628bc1db9da90b85b65d41e4f.png

    ..so obviously it could and still (and maybe will ) come to nothing but perhaps the ops are sensing something re favourable drivers returning ?...

     

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