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minus10

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Posts posted by minus10

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Supacell said:

    I do have waterproofs but didn't have time to put them on as the storm was already coming in fast when I pulled up. So I get thoroughly drenched 😂. It's part and parcel of the job though.

    I was very tired when I got home. I was diverted a couple of times trying to chase the storms that popped up around Oxfordshire. Never caught them, but resulted in me getting home at 5:30am 🥱

    Have a well deserved rest...well possibily until Thursday...🤫

    • Like 4

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Supacell said:

    Here is my video from the storms on Sunday night 🙂

     

     

    Well gotta hand it to you @Supacell you have some stamina..i would have been a nervous wreck driving in  that wondering where the next flooded patch will be...presume you have waterproofs (and camera too 😀)...great video...watching it i felt as if i was there and needed to dry out too..you must have been tired when you got back home though...hope  you manage to get some good shut eye... 😀

     

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Supacell said:

     

    It could easily come to nothing but in all honesty I think the risk is worth it. This is quite likely my last real storm chase of 2023.

    My gut is saying somewhere along or east of a line from Brighton to Cambridge. Question is how east of this line. Last year on October 23rd I head to Essex as this area looked primed, but the storms erupted northwards to my west through Luton, Milton Keynes etc. I don't want a repeat of that.

    You mention October 23rd last year. That was by far the best storm i have witnessed for many years...it had everything...frequent lightning, continuous rolling thunder, wind, torrential rain and hail...

    This was the radar of the approach that evening..

    Screenshot_20221023_171152_Chrome.thumb.jpg.02bf0e025cec5542da9816c613d6f5e6.jpg

    ...the storm front didnt weaken like most, it kept intensifying for quite a while as it moved north..goes to show that quality storms can occur in October if the conditions are right..as for tonight...well ...

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by minus10

    Yes upto 24th/25th good agreement from gfs/ecm 0z of much more changeable and unsettled weather from tomorrow..

    ens_image-2023-09-16T095314_738.thumb.png.c259b51f549761d14c333e01f34d8fb0.png

    ens_image-2023-09-16T095245_921.thumb.png.de71cbc470089ee994fe108a24a57a42.png

    ..the mean and the op almost as one for this time...

    ...and while temps will generally be a lot cooler still warmer at times towards the south east. 

    gfs-1-108.thumb.png.fe22fde2802b36b7f42c6e3282c9fdd6.png

    ...although displaced from our shores the heat is still not that far away over the spain and the near continent during this time...

    gfs-1-234(1).thumb.png.09c9708b9c62b437417c0cd142c69a0e.png

     

    ...what with the tropical systems causing additional uncertainty i think the weather will get interesting and lively at times as we go through the second half of september...

     

     

    Could contain:

    • Like 6

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

    Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms 😭

    It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales. 

     

    Looking at that wxchart...precious little for the south east as things stand...btw...sorry for sounding silly but what is radar feflectivity exactly and how does it differ to precipitation rate...thanks..

    • Like 1
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