offerman
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59 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:Plus heavy showers develop their own cold pools which in marginal situations is enough. P.S
Sorry you had to through that @offerman, the world throws everything at all the best people. My mum for example survived cancer once a couple years ago but got it again in the liver last year, she's going for clinical trials sometime later this month so hopefully they go well.
Thank you so much for your kind words. I am sending you ,your mum ,and family all the love , positivity possible that she is ok.
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42 minutes ago, Bricriu said:Jesus that's awful stuff to be going through. I am sorry. I don't mean to sound flippant but i hope this thread is providing some light relief, if that's possible at all.
Thank you Bricriu, no you don't sound flippant at all and yes it does help bring light relief in a strange way all things considering going on.
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3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:Folks are missing the bigger picture again regarding temperatures. Those temps will fall hard under areas of Snow...yes they will edge back up again in clearer breaks,but under clear skies and snow cover at night,they will readily plummet! There is no science behind it! As long as we encounter snowfall then we are good to go.
Hi Matt just to quickly say I hope you’re okay since the last time we cross paths as you were going through a tough time before Christmas as was I.
I can’t believe such a bad set of circumstances.as you know I lost mum end of November and a friend at the same time.
I then had a close friend commit suicide during the Christmas break.
just recently my sister diagnosed with most probable terminal cancer.
and another friend who I’ve been helping out for years with his laptop has terminal cancer in the lymph.
doesn’t feel like I’ve been living in a real world if I’m honest.
but I hope you’re okay and things improved for you as I know you had a tough time.
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Just now, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Folks are missing the bigger picture again regarding temperatures. Those temps will fall hard under areas of Snow...yes they will edge back up again in clearer breaks,but under clear skies and snow cover at night,they will readily plummet! There is no science behind it! As long as we encounter snowfall then we are good to go.
Just to also add onto this what Matt said I found an astonishing set of circumstances during the first two weeks of December in our favour in my location.
my son said to me daddy I hope the snow doesn’t melt too quickly and I said with a little bit of luck in a dream scenario we will get clear skies at night to freeze up the snow had fallen and then we will get cloudy skies in the day to help it stick around and not melt under sunny skies. and lo and behold that’s pretty much what happened for two weeks had about an inch of snow or just over and it stuck around for two weeks. so even in March this could definitely happen if we can get some cloudy days will help preserve snow on the ground and as Matt alluded to clear skies at night with refreeze it.
if we can get some really cold temperatures in first before the snow the ground can harden up as it did in December and it takes longer for the ground to warm up so effectively a freezer be low any snow thst falls too that’s preventing a subsurface melting process. It’s dangerous relying on a little bit of luck there’s not too much direct sun as it is higher this time of year.
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4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Sobering chart.. despite the eye candy synoptic pattern and uppers between -5 and -10 we find ourselves with highs around 4 and 5 and struggling to gey below 0 overnight if at all.. why is that? If its not time of year?
Much stronger sun this time of year, longer daylight hours.
Also, most if not all weather apps are notoriously terrible at forecasting temperatures.
for example, The BBC in particular my show 6 or 7 for a daytime temperature only for it to be actually three or four deg c.
The same can be said in summer you can always add on two or 3° quite often for BBC temperatures they say 21 when it actually gets to 24
I found most apps absolutely terrible when it comes to temperature forecasting.
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Yes, can you send the link to that please.
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56 minutes ago, danm said:
The problem we could have - and why I tend to be less keen on late season SSW's - is that we do develop some level of high latitude blocking, but not in a way that advects deep cold over us, which is absolutely needed in March, with rapidly increasing solar energy, if we are to get what most of us want - snow that sticks around rather than melting immediately or turning into a slushy mess within a few hours.
The high lat blocking that does or could develop as a response to the SSW could then lead us to a very cool and wet Spring, as the jet stream stays south of it's usual location. I'd hazard a guess and say that this outcome would be what very few of us would want.
So with a mid/late Feb SSW, you need all the cards to fall in our favour, as they did in 2018, to deliver something special. Otherwise you run the risk of a halfway house that leads to a cool, damp, miserable Spring. It's all or nothing,. Give us something special, or sod off entirely and let Spring commence.
Great post.
i’d also like to add it depends as well on how strong the Iberian high will be to allow of the potential cold weather to flow down and squeeze the high.
if however the Iberian high is too strong it could squeeze up and you could have the old fashioned battleground somewhere over the UK between a cold from the north and the milder air from the south.
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5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
So.. where are we?
We can be fairly confident now I think that high latitude blocking is likely, led in part by tropical convection & resulting low amplitude +AAM & favourable wave-breaking helping to essentially "pull down" the negative anomalies from the stratosphere into the troposphere.
Very strong signal for Scandinavian blocking (BLO+) followed by a retrogression signal (NAO-), i.e high pressure moving westwards towards Greenland. This broad pattern evolution seems "nailed on", as some would say. What we need to try & figure out now what type of -NAO pattern we're going to find ourselves in.
The initial Scandi block doesn't look likely to be far enough north to advect deeper cold into the UK so anyone looking for cold is going to have to hope retrogression is more favourable. There are a lot of solutions on the table and a west based -NAO remains a real possibility, ironically the speed of downwelling from the next stratospheric warming may result in a more west based NAO vs perhaps a slower evolution.
There remains no significant signal for deeper cold being advected into the UK from any source, whilst temperatures seem likely to be a little below average late Feb & through into early March, the wait for something more "significant" continues.
Honest accurate post . So whilst i love the snow and wish we had some more it’ll be nice to have some sunshine although feeling chilly in any wind.
Maybe a few flurries in the wind could pop up if is cold enough.
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On the GFS charts i notice very deep cold potential appears but s the days have progressed only the ocassional cold frame or two makes it to D7 from F1. As we move in to D 5 i noticed that dissappeared and the deep cold potential keeps getting pushed back in to the final frames of FI.
why does GFS do this on multiple occasions only to water it down and keep sharing in FI.Thanks
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On 13/02/2023 at 08:40, Frosty. said:
I like P19!….actually there are a few very good perts in there, perhaps there’s something for coldies to look
forward to around the turn of the month?! 
Just a shame that the sun is getting much stronger come start of March. If only this was December or January.
Saying that though i do remember times in March when it was soo cold there air was thick soup like and with deep cold seems to create a cold haze deflecting some of the strong sun.
if it can remain cloudy then even better then clear overnight as happened in December for two weeks where i live. Cloudy days clear cold nights with sub zero ground preserving the snow for two weeks.
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1 hour ago, andymusic said:
The weather has a habit of balancing out - so safe to say all this "calm" and high pressure weather that we are getting now could well balance to very stormy weather which if it falls right could be a cold easterly with a storm hitting the cold freezing weather leading to blizzards and drifts of snow - that's my crystal ball outlook and I'm sticking to it as the models are still making us wait for the results of the ssw!
You could all be right Andy. Let’s hope for a nice colder period with some snow to finish off the season. Would love to get out there again with my son sledging.
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1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:
At this stage it's too early for any impact to be showing at the 500hPa level of the troposphere as even the furthest reach of the latest GFS is only out to the 28th Feb. The SSW at 10hPa is forecast to occur on the 15th February and expectations are that it will likely take several weeks to filter down and impact the troposphere. In fairness to Nick, his article does make this clear. But hopefully we will start to see some interesting model output by the end of this coming week.
A look at the Sudden Stratospheric Warming next week and what implications this may have on our weather a few weeks later. There's not guarantee that it will bring the Beast from the East like 2018 as suggested by the media, but it may increase the risk of a spell of cold and wintry weather into early March.
........So, there is no Beast from the East with snow and ice indicated in the model output out to 16 days, for now at least, so probably not for the rest of this month. But we will be monitoring the downwelling of the reversal to see if it reaches the troposphere, but based on current GFS forecast analysis of the atmospheric winds, I wouldn't expect any impacts of next week’s SSW event until early March if the reversal reaches the troposphere.
Thank you blessed. Yes that’s true and the last effect and agree to be fair to Nick too.
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Nothing cold in the forecast charts if gfs is anything to go by even if the headline alludes to colder weather potential.
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21 hours ago, TN9 said:
what makes me sad is the old ... and three years nearly now.. ye old west Pacific high ,good old excuse is la nina , its influence spirals every where...do they know ..whats the azores high secret ?...it doesn't need la nina or el nino ..its there never too far away ,it takes no notice of Pacific affairs ..maybe buffeted slung in to Europe at times but she's always there no need for bigger picture
Great post.
I was talking the other evening in a post of mine about how high pressures are extremely strong and slow moving through southern Europe Iberia and The Azores high. Any high pressures that come down from Northeast Canada below Greenland are a lot more mobile and Zip across when we would prefer those to be more stagnant to allow colder streams of air from the north or north east.
no can you believe just for posting that that I got my post removed even though I was talking about pressure charts .
let’s see if they remove mine again and keep all the other ones on here that are talking about high pressures! -
12 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Yes, ECM day 10 quite amplified. Maybe, just maybe something is afoot.
Afoot of snow hopefully ….
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3 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:
Still a solid signal for a mid Atlantic high in the next 7-10 days. Question is whether it can make a decent attempt at ridging northwards alongside a southeasterly push of trough energy into Europe.
Spot on Kasmin. Let’s hope it can ridge north as these days this type of setup often struggles to ridge north soo let’s hope this time will be different.
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2 hours ago, dr weather said:
My brother lives there. He says they didn't get anything other than heavy localised flooding.
Thanks DW
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Looks like us here in N/E somerset we’ll just miss out on this lot.
good luck to those of you that are in the main batch looks like you will get quite a covering.
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Channel islands must be taking absolute paste of snow right now. Just imagine if that system was over southern England like 2018 would probably get another 31 cm of snow out of that
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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:
Yes I remember December cold spell and understand why it was mostly dry. Thickness wasn't low and no wind were the reasons given, we have both of those things in our favour now. Still bone dry for most inland places. Getting ridiculous now. No doubt the second it becomes too warm for snow after Friday we get soaked again.
Didn't you know English interior when cold is concerned -twinned with Atacama !
When Mild twinned with Bangladesh !-
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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
The S storm is back!
BFTP
If only that mid-Atlantic hi on your chart could extend further north and link up with the Greenland high. And then migrate north east. That would allow that deep pool of cold air to properly flood down and be sustained as welL.
at the moment that high-pressure in the Atlantic looks to be quite mobile compare to lower latitude high pressures which are much more stagnant the Azores high the euro slug example. when we get a high mid Atlantic it’s quite difficult to get a stagnant one but if this could do that and link up migrate north east that would be fantastic for everybody for fans of cold and snow.-
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5 hours ago, MJB said:
Yes but you most certainly don't need a SSW to form a HP , that can float across the UK at anytime , once in situ it's a question of wait and see.
Just pointing out that even without a SSW we can still be ok
Whilst I agree with you about how precious can float over us one thing that has changed I find over the last 10 to 15 years is that even the high-pressure systems seem much more mobile and less static.
they seem to drift over but keep on going rather than sit on order us in the winter time. obviously in summer this is a different situation where they can’t set on us thank goodness to give us nice prolonged warm periods of weather.I have also noticed that quite often high pressures that look like give him potential from a Scandinavian perspective of that slip down into the eastern bed drawing up warmer winds as opposed to setting more in a horizontal position or tilted position to give us colder conditions.
Scandinavian or Siberian high pressures do seem much less common to deliver cold to our neck of the woods.
contrary to my statement about how precious drifting over or to the north or north east of us being mobile high pressures on the country the high pressures such as Hadley cell Iberian high and euro slug are much more stagnant and extremely persistent and hard to shift despite the telekinetic‘s on the other side of the planet which are often discussed as being the key drivers to Allweather which I often disagree about this due to our more localised European high-pressure phenomena more so in recent years.
as I mentioned before after looking at a run then slide the bar right across all of the timeframes and back again and forward and back and you can clearly see the patterns that I’ve discussed earlier in this post.
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2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:
See the ever present limpet short wave low close to the Norwegian coast is becoming a feature too when ever we get some sort of Scandi High, interesting also how the isobars seem to follow the contour of the coast rather than go westwards (probably due to the large difference in temps from land to sea) as per 222z on tonight's ECM op run...thoroughly depressing.
Fantastic post/ point of which I noticed happening in recent years as well.
it does seem such a small little feature but can really block the easterly which I could remember with the flow I suppose all the way from Siberia right across over to us and rarely were there any small low features like this does seem to be relatively new feature over the last 5 to 10 years. not that winds from this direction I’ll come in anyway but if there is a hint of a high-pressure lead into a potential easterly the short wave often knocks on the head diverts it. -
3 hours ago, Catacol said:
Shooting from the hip at those who try and make sense of what drives our weather is probably not the way to go. Nobody I have seen try and come up with an analysis ignores the reality of Hadley Cell movement and the increasing dominance of the sub tropical high pressure belt. It is a known context. And clearly there is more we need to do to try and comprehend what impacts the Euro High specifically. For many years data and forecasting has looked almost entirely at the Pacific- and for good reason. The Pacific drives the Rossby Wave pattern that most obviously impacts the major centres of Western population namely the US and Europe. But little to no time is given analysing what is happening over the Atlantic or perhaps over the African continent. Do research papers exist that target the Euro High? I haven't seen any. Perhaps we will start to see some soon.
Those who use teleconnections and who you identify as "ignoring" the Euro High context presumably also include NWP output itself which also got it wrong. As did the Met Office. Sometimes a forecast is a bust because it is a bust - because we are yet to know enough to forecast accurately beyond 5 days.
But to try is better than not to try. There are no prizes for raising the white flag and having a chip at those who got it wrong.
Excellent post Catacol.
I also mentioned once before I saw a program on the BBC and I just can’t remember what it was called. But they were discussing particularly strong magnetic areas subsurface that could affect above the surface creating strong high-pressure systems. So it looked like it was the InnerWorkings effect in the outer above sea level synoptics. There were about six identified around the planet and the Hadley cell was one of them.
it does seem like an invisible force field when strong telekinetic‘s spoken about which in the end I just like a soggy teabag in texture when it comes up against a high-pressure systems . These high prices just seem to want to constantly deliver mild southerly or south westerly wins with low prices that get caught up in the flow just to keep reverting .
sometimes it’s a big sways of cold air coming down from Canada or the western side of Greenland and it’s freezing cold right down into the Atlantic and as soon as it sweeps towards us just as it’s about to hit us on so many runs I noticed that it takes a sudden directional change to go from south-west to north-east due to the effect of the euro slug.
if anyone wants to know or see the effects of the high-pressures ( despite kinetics) then place your finger on the slider bar , in my case I have an iPhone and if you scrub that bar all the way to the end and back again do that quite a few times you’ll see like a timelapse of the weather systems ebbing and flowing but the general trend is look at how much the high-pressure systems have in controlling majority of it most of the time either deflecting low pressures or guiding them right over the top of us but the general trend of directions are more often the same and any cold potentials are just that they often get water down or dematerialise.
once Euro highs become established it’s extremely difficult to get rid of them summer or winter. same goes for the placement of the Hadley cell Azores high,Iberian high.
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Looking forward to the next set of charts coming out this afternoon.
this from net weather set a potential is definitely there judging by this paragraph.
” Into the middle to the latter part of next week, some significant snowfalls are possible in the southern half of Britain as frontal systems push in from the south-west and collide with the cold Arctic air mass. Rain is most likely in southern coastal counties of England, but on the northern flank of these systems, precipitation is likely to fall predominantly as snow. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England are expected to remain cold and sunny, with some snow showers for northern Scotland and some scattered snow showers breaking out elsewhere during the daytime.