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offerman

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Posts posted by offerman

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Just you wait, Azores high upgrades will be few and far between come the summer… 😅

    That can sometimes be the case that it seems like it just influences at the wrong time which we all wish for. in other words bugger off in winter and please come home to the UK in summer. Beggars certainly can’t be choosers with our weather on this island.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Jacob said:

    Looks like the PV stopped existing yet we are still getting westerly winds and mild-ish weather lol

    Unfortunately, that is the result of a Hadley cell, which these days do seem to be larger and more influential and at times stubborn to shift. You can have a Mobile train of weather systems, but that doesn’t always involve the high-pressure and the systems just ride over the top of it dragging in the moulder south Westerly or Southerly winds. 
     

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    AXE

    I had the BT AC2600 before. It wasn't bad, but I needed 4 nodes as they weren't very powerful. I bought 3 of the new ones, but really, I only needed 2, as the coverage is fantastic. I can even get 200Mbps from 50m away. It was easy to set mine up, as the first node is backhauled to the router via ethernet, and then I turn the Wi-Fi off on the router. I plugged the other 2 nodes in and they connected within two minutes, without having to do anything.

    I used to use an TPlink Archer AC2600 was good but, as ever improving Routers and WIFI Categories emerge is an ever improving situation ( unlike our weather right now!) 

     

    200mbps from 50m is excellent. 
     

    I was using routers with AP static IP and the same range leaving the host on the DHCP static IP on extended AP routers.  Only one issue I had was one of the rooms used to be a garage but was converted into a bedroom and electrical circuitry was extremely temperamental would regularly drop off on the home plug and the speeds were terrible I think because the ring circuit must’ve been slightly different to the original loop.

    that sounds great though with what you have now.

    I have had so much going on in personal life for such a long time now and still ongoing, but when things settle down and I get my brain back into gear, I will look into the mesh option as well. 

     

     

    8 minutes ago, fromey said:

    Currently -2c and it’s raining! Freezing rain!!

     

    I did go outside and check earlier but haven’t been feeling too well. Been on the sofa a lot but will go and poke my head out the front door just out of interest.  

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    Installed my new WiFi 6e mesh today. I can pretty much get my full fibre speed over WiFi now.

    Screenshot_20231202_161652_Speedtest.thumb.jpg.da2735948147d74de38b98e7db444098.jpg

    Very thick fog here. 1.1°C

    Nice about Mesh. Is that on AC wifi or higher? 
    I recently installed the TV and the Wi-Fi was shocking on TV despite me being on a very fast fibre line so ended up using home plugs which has done the trick. 
     

    I like the fact that mash will just not cross or hang onto one bar on an AP, but instead just instantly go to the nearest. 

    In another property, I was in previously, I managed to rename my Main router and the two APs I had, which were also routers not Wi-Fi extenders. I renamed the whole lot and set it up with the same SSD and encryption, and that worked a treat similar to a mesh and it didn’t try and hang onto the furthest route away, it was really good at the time.

    • Like 2

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, jethro said:

    Thick, freezing fog here, everything's very white.

     

    I was the post that I’ve just woken up, open the curtains and not sure if there’s been a very fine covering of snow. But after reading your post and seeing that it is foggy, it is just most likely frozen fog particles

    . grass does not seem to be so white, but the cars and the roads and plants are most definitely covered in the frozen fog. Absolutely beautiful to see though.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So far, it looks like the cold gets pushed out the way by Atlantic low pressure systems towards the middle part of next week.

    One thing the GFS charts are good at seems to be highly accurate with forecasting mild wet and windy and low pressure systems, but it struggles with cold SynOptics and often Waters them down in longevity of cold snaps.

    at the moment, it doesn’t look like we will get locked into any prolonged cold periods, judging by the charts, but there has been a lot of talk recently of a cold Christmas period leading up to New Year. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    There is speculation over the Hadley cell being more expansive than decades previously..This could explain the more Northern extent of the Azores High. Its definitely a factor we do not want being an hindrance this Winter. So many variables at play...so many things to go against us,but if we catch it correctly then significant cold and wintry conditions still remain a strong possibility.

    Thanks for your reply bud.

    I do agree with you that something has definitely happened with the Hadley cell RE its expansion it definitely seems to have played a larger part and also remember when it has migrated Eastwards to become the Euros slug which could be so frustrating at times for us all that like the seasonal. Completely agree about not wanting it to be a hindrance for this winter, and hopefully with much speculation that cold will play a bigger factor this winter due to Teleconnections and other factors with large high-pressure systems over the Arctic, and towards more southern latitudes outside of the circle so let’s hope we can get some decent winter weather. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    There's a bit more two it than that mate..we've had long periods over recent times when the Atlantic as been in slumber mode for weeks even months at a time. And if the Atlantic was the sole reason we wouldn't have experienced so many harsh winters of the past.

    Personally bar the Azores Heights around iberia looking a little strong to finish the run,I feel that cold air lurks with intent and I'm still not seeing the Atlantic at full steam ahead..it had know strong TPV to drive it...neither is there deep cold flooding out of Canada to fire it up.

    I look forward to the ec ens a little later.

    I agree to a point mate but as soon as an Azores high is place it  guides the milder SW’lys to our shores with or without strong atlantic depressions.
    Even mod atlantic highs are fairly fluid/mobile the flow and rarely does one sit mid Atlantic at the correct orientation to divert lows over the top with full blasting northerlies containing troughs and sometimes a polar low like days of old.

      

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

    Have held fire tonight in the hope ECM would keep enough blocking in place to make the Monday low a slider, but alas it wasn’t to be, with milder air now set to move north across much of the UK by Tues.

    What happens immediately after that will probably come down to whether the next Atlantic low phases, or the gaps remains wide enough for a wedge to drop south and turn it colder again, but whatever way you slice it a significant pattern change is now odds on.

    Atlantic is just far too strong most years tbh for any longevity of cold on our Island with the exception of Scotlands highlands. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, danm said:

    Having being model watching now for a good 20 years, despite some substantial steps forward, the same maxim is true today - anything beyond 4 or 5 days is to be taken with a big dollop of salt, particularly when it comes to scenarios that could lead to proper cold and snow in the UK. So many pieces of the jigsaw need to fall into place for our island, that you are relying on each one of them to hold firm. Often if even one piece of the jigsaw fails to hold, the whole pattern can collapse, or get watered down. It's the price we pay for living in a temperate, maritime climate unfortunately. 

    I've lost count of the number of times us on here have chased a cold spell for it all to get washed away with a few consecutive runs. Unless it get within 4 to 5 days at the max, the advice is not to get too excited. 

    However, there are sometimes those exceptions where the cold spell does arrive and we get some good snowfall. It's what keeps the hope alive!

    Excellent post . Well explained. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    This will be the first below average rainfall month following 4 pretty hefty anomalously wet months. Very happy on that front. December starts dry and frosty for at least a week, in fact many days never getting above 3c, even then only an hour. Chance of snow and even if on the mountains, I can drive.

    Nick F points out the interest we can have for end of month period. Won't be long before that may or may not be coming into view. Plus surprises aplenty always pop up in the interval. Like this shot of cold.

    And I'd be suffering hyberbolics if I'd forgotten my thermals at 450 m in this weather too. So sympathies there 😉

    Hi Downburst,

     

    can you reply back to me what Nick said about what’s interesting come the end of the month?

     

    I wonder if that will involve Christmas Day itself or like the old days I remember getting colder after boxing day and sometimes a snowy New Year just would never happen early enough for Christmas generally. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Back in the early days of internet weather we didn't have precipitation type charts, we had Wetterzentrale and had to painstakingly look at every possible variable, whether or not there was any actual precipitation around was often one of the last things to be looked at! 

    Kids these days.. 😜

    And magnetic symbols 😉

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, James1979 said:

    You can definitely make it up, it's happened multiple times every winter for the last 2 decades of being around this forum, its why I gave up getting into the models over a decade ago. Past a few days, stopped clock, etc, etc.. same in summer re storms. 

    Hi james
    I just made a post a few minutes ago, and after that I carried on reading through the thread, then came across your post and thought crikey how our minds and experiences have witnessed the same disappointments. really like your post as it is true. Unfortunately for the past two decades, it does seem to have been like this on so many occasions. I think what I struggled to understand is why there is always this breakdown when initially it’s looking really good for some cold snowy weather. I wonder what the reason is for all of the models to show such great wintry weather but near enough every time gets broken down, I wonder why the pattern keeps repeating itself, and why the same mistakes by the modelling systems keep happening. I find it intriguing and of course frustrating for snow and cold fans like me. 
    what I do find encouraging so far is that there is no massive stagnant as yours, high or Euro slug which has so often been the cause of just relentless mild winters. I often use the slider with each set of output charts and I fast forward and rewind and fast forward. Then you get to see the bigger picture as opposed to just on a single frame. it just shows you how fluid the atmosphere and all the micro weather patterns mixed into the larger continental influences and Atlantic influences all mix and mash together.

    there is always high when it does appear it’s not there for long and gets shunted along towards into the med and I have noticed some more tilted heights that then follow behind and more mid-Atlantic which is a great sign. Because once you get those stagnant heights they can be hard to shift. Of course, I wouldn’t complain if we had a nice stagnant Scandi or Greenland high. 

    we do need a good solid blocking high mid-Atlantic linking up to the north and north east of the UK. At the moment. Atlantic does seem quite mobile and powerful at times especially when you move the slider and view the charts in fast forward motion you can see, it’s a constant conveyor belt of mostly low pressures coming off the eastern seaboard over to our neck of the woods. We are entering into a small period of some good blocking, but as has been the case that has brought us a lot of rain during October and November. More mobility will return by the looks of it after this cold spell and those pens are quite hard to shift and just block all of a sudden. 
     

    but a good start to winter with some cold weather, incoming, even if dry.

    let’s just hope we can get some of the cold that is built up to our north and east, filtered in over us through the winter at times, if we can. 

     

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, John88B said:

    Not the most inspiring runs overnight for those of a cold persuasion but we do have a few days of cold weather nailed on and plenty of time for the models to take a turn for the better👍

    Anyway it's still not even officially winter yet!

     

    Hi John

    unfortunately, I’ve been around for quite a long time and I’ve all too many times seen so much potential to be just watered down on a daily basis towards the event. I’ve always learned to take these long-term charts just with a pinch of salt. That has been the occasion where it’s actually changed for the better when things hadn’t looked so great and then it changed so much into the favour of coldie snowy fans. 
     

    as you rightly say, though, we’re not even officially in winter at the moment, so a really good start even if we just get the cold dry weather, you mention, will still make it feel that festive feeling.

    Who knows these charts could improve, and it could be one of those rare occasions when it goes in our favour. One thing is for sure we have seen the yo-yo effect with daily output charts and forecasting. 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

    We don't all live in the 'South' old bean 😁👍 as you were...

    Absolutely agree with you, and I didn’t mean it in the way it was taken.

    All I meant was the initial extensive snow chances on Thursday were progged for the south and I was just merely stating that that no longer looks to be the case. 
     

    If someone from Scotland was talking about their snow chances that had diminished then that’s fine with me. Good to know what’s going on in their part of the world as well is the way I look at it. 

    • Like 7
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Beeb have gone with further South but said if further North then it's a snowy story, but think South it is 

    image.thumb.png.00a93e2052110f46ebe30e430e882315.png

    Shame South is to miss out on what so many had said, would be a Thursday snow event.

    never mind, it’s really early days in the season. Sure there will be plenty more chances to come. 
    we may get some showers popping up that turn into troughs, marching their way from East to west. 

    • Like 4

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Andy, 

    How much rain has fallen in the last three or four days in our area as it’s absolutely chucking it down again this morning as it did through the night and then yesterday with the streamer from the Bristol channel right across our area. We must’ve had between 2 to 3 inches on guessing with the volume of rain that’s come down for the prolonged length of time. 

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