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offerman

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Posts posted by offerman

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

     MP-R I was thinking exactly the same earlier I looked at the pressure charts saw the high-pressure that looked very close by and yet there’s this astonishing amount of rain so close, so I refresh the charts, thinking that I was looking at an old set from a few days before or something but it refreshed and showed the same set of charts. So a great observation from you MPR as I thought the same. 

    Still chucking it down very  heavy rain since 5pm 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Hotspur62

    I feel that it’s higher pressures, more stagnated topography of these, forcing up milder winds from the south and south-west, so the pressure charts often resemble in reality very similar patterns to our Southwest, and these are particularly strong in recent years and a hard to shift out of the way

    So I’m not sure when these long-range forecasts come out they are looking at certain drivers for sure whether they include these recent stagnant high-pressure systems. Well that I’m not so sure of. 
     

    if you turn a standing fan on, and it’s blowing cold air with no obstruction in the way, but if you put a wall in the place of the flow, this will disrupt this colder flow of air, and if you have a strong wall with a strong, counteracting driver behind it. This will inevitably. Prohibit the colder, incursions and certainly any longevity, but make it very difficult to get any cold in place

    The wall is equivalent of the high-pressure systems that we have encountered through most of this winter to our Southwest

     

    Also, just to add to my last post, the fact that there has not been any particularly strong Arctic high-pressure systems as well, but also they seem to have been many more smaller disturbances, and as we all know, it only takes one small disturbance in the far north to disrupt any potential flows south, plus there’s also been warmer sea temperatures as well, so the warmth has been exacerbated still further from our Southwest.

     

     

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     E17boy I have also been banging on about this for sometime that these high-pressure charts to our south and south-west are stronger and more dominant than ever, which practically every time seems to obliterate any cold that get modelled in any forecasts. Of course you get the odd blast that does make it through occasionally. What I have noticed as well, putting aside the Iberian, and as high is that there seem to be more smaller disturbances in any colder potential flows often disrupting the chances of cold, so combine that with the high-pressure systems to our south, and it is more often than not against our favour, especially nowadays

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

      @Kasim Awan hi Kasim

     Yes i noticed this as well. Send to be a stubourn pattern and often wins out. So unless this dilutes to or south then currently there’s no chance of any longevity of cooler weather. Southern heights far too strong at present. All the talk was Feb 5th -10th  cold which does not look likely to me. Things could change of course but not looking likely at this conjuncture.  

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

      @ANYWEATHER agree completely . It’s a setup unfortunately that has differed is this winter so far. Cold potential but either stubbourn heights to our south or too much mobility mid Atlantic preventing cold sinking south and holding but instead mobility returns. 
    Any cold at present too far out and of any verifies will require dispersion of azores/iberian heights and also a nice mid Atlantic/greeny or scandi block. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

      @damianslaw nice post, Damien, I do agree that 5 6 day timeframe starts to become more semi reliable timeframe, but as we know, even that can be subject to change during this time, but at least five or six days out is more of a guide. It’s better to be cautious, and at the moment, take it with a pinch of salt, and any further out than that with regards to a cold spell as we’ve seen so much already shots and forecast flip-flop on a daily basis. Because the Arctic has been in such a mess with no large sustained, weather patter to be the guider of a More, certain outcome. The weather patterns are much harder to predict and what I have found looking this winter, as there has been so many more smaller areas and pockets of disruption, and all you need is one of those in the wrong place to disrupt the whole colder potential. 
    that’s one thing, I’ve noticed that’s changed over the recent years, whereas before I remember you may have a large north, Atlantic, mid Atlantic high extending up Linking into a Greenland high driving down, Nally went straight from the Arctic all the way through the UK down into France. 
    when you look how far any colder air reaches it struggles to get down over the whole of the UK, but it has made it on occasion this winter, but there was always seems to have been southern blocking, or the orientation of any highs have not been sustained, but have contained more mobility to them so you have a brief northerly blast with usual coastal wintry showers East West and North, but there’s been no chance of topers because the high has been forced in across and then passed us allowing one Southwest lease to come back in . The weather patterns are very mobile. This winter has lacked static structured patterns to them. 
     

    what will February bring? Let’s wait-and-see, but at this conjuncture. I’d say it’s too far out and as you rightly pointed out five or six day is when we can, then start taking it more seriously and bring it into the semi reliable timeframe

     

     

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just read the next monthly forecast from Netweather. 
    Will be really interesting to see if the synoptics play out. 
    Will be nice to have some calmer dryer weather for a change for all of us.

    if high-pressure does take control will be good to see some nice dark, clear, starry nights. 
    Will be interesting to see how long any Greenland high will sustain, and with pressure forecast to drop over scandinavia in some of that period could be quite chilly too. 

    • Like 3

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 17/01/2024 at 16:34, Mapantz said:

    It's actually a bike light offerman. You can check it out here: 

    Untitled-12.jpeg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Magicshine MONTEER 12000 - Magic Shine UK

    MAGICSHINEUK.COM
    ✔ Max Lumen: 12000 LM ✔ Battery Capacity: 14.4V/10,000mAh (144Wh) ✔ Max Runtime: 121hrs ✔ Max Throw: 360m ✔ Floodlight with cutoff line & Spotlight: Support ✔ Waterproof: IPX6 ✔ Charger:...

     

    I'm quite qualified when it comes to high intensity flash lights though, so if you're after something in particular, drop me a message. 👊

    Hi Mapantz, thank you for posting model/specs. Much appreciated 👍 Will do pm soon 

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted


    had some extreme wins here in the last 40 minutes. I think they must’ve been associated with either a squall  line or something as that was really windy. would be interesting to see the gusts for this neck of the wood for the last 40 minutes or so.

    it’s tied down a little bit, but still really really windy

    as I’m typing this, I just heard another intense gust

    stay safe out there guys, if anyone has had to venture out

    There’s also been a tremendous amount of rain, the last couple of hours as well. I’m wondering if there would be as much as 40 to 50 mm as it was quite intense for a long period of time

     

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There is going to be more serious issues with floods. I suspect with river levels still high from the last load of rain, the ground still saturated and the ice melting that had frozen a lot of the flood water previously now thawing out. 
    looks like at least two more serious falls of rain and lots of wind on Tuesday and Thursday on top of what’s falling down tonight as well

    • Like 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by offerman

    21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    The METO not mentioning  the southern region isn't that surprising, pretty much all the models they use mainly are in the 'southern' camp, UKV is south, ECM Op is relatively  south, probably about 80-85% of the ECM ensembles are south or just clip with a tiny amount and UKMO GM is south.

    I'm sure they are keeping a watching brief just incase, especially as at the moment its a bit of a low risk high impact situation but the weight of all the global model output is still pretty strongly towards it remaining in the channel, if only by a little. History would suggest thats the most likely outcome as well.

    The fact there are small margins is why though it will still be watched, probably more than its probable 10-20% risk would normally warrant.

    As you say the METOFFICE are not updating anything in the south, most likely cause we’re highly unlikely to get any precipitation at all, and if we do it may not be disruptive.

    there were a couple of posters that alluded to sudden updates, and I can vouch for those as they do happen couple years ago around breakfast time. There was a sudden red warning that was put out around Bath and north east Somerset, just in a small area but that literally came out of nowhere within about a half hour period. 

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Can I make this clear.. this is not quite the intended gist of my post.

    They do not automatically increase just 'errors'. They increase the total amount of data (Including errors), this has the result that it increases the volatility of the output data (a larger envelope if you like). The overall effect will be more of a more chaotic output.

    We are already seeing this with the models overreacting to some sorts of signals, particularly in a 'stuck' pattern where a small difference here and there can produce a totally opposite outcome.  We also see overblown lows very frequently.......   My gut  'feeling' is that this will happen more frequently if we just add in more computing power.

    We will at the moment benefit more by sorting out the software glitches, than by spending many millions on hardware. Its the balance really which is important moving forward.

    Midlands Ice Age   ( i don't only post at midnight?)

     

    Hi MIA 

    thanks for your post again and brilliant. It is as the last ones you put out as well and thanks for the corrections. I think you made an interest in point about overblown Lows  as well and that’s a classic example of why can’t they update the algorithms /systems with data that would then output are more realistic option .

    it will be great when we see the day when they can put in place, what you have suggested, and correct the software. 

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Paul said:

    If you're looking for a realistic answer, the only one as far as I'm concerned is that a gfs chart at 384 hours isn't a useful guide for that time . So, therefore attempting to extrapolate that to make a forecast for another month is impossible/pointless.

    Completely agree with that post.

     

    GFS or any charts that Far out are going to be so difficult and near on impossible to create a forecast from that. It’s difficult at the best of times, even 10 days out let alone that far.

     

    6 minutes ago, joggs said:

    The pain of so many winters,the Iberian high🤢

    Quite right, which unfortunately has become larger, stronger, more dominant and stagnant combine that with the shift north of the subtropical belt as well. ( someone posted the link not long ago to back this up about the shift Northwards) 

    • Like 2
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