offerman

January 9

2 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Snow warnings this morning for #ChannelIslands. Orange for Jersey and Yellow for Guernsey from Jersey Met.

Also Orange warnings over the far north of France from MeteoFrance for Snow/Ice

Radar from yesterday evening included (image3&4). There are issues with mixed-state precipitation for the radar, and as always, the imagery does need some interpretation. It's worth switching between Weather ON/OFF to find the heavier prep. and what might be 'noise'

Thanks for the update Jo

January 9

Crickey, look at all that snow in the channel and over northern France, if only that was another hundred miles north the whole lot.

January 8

7 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Looks like the southern tip of South hams is in line for some snow. Rare event!

Yes Southampton in South Hampshire got some today i saw a photo from earlier and had nice covering.

January 8

Only had few flakes on off here but will done to all that receive a good covering.

January 8

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I turned my security light on so I could see my snow grains

the amount of times I’ve done that over the years you’re not alone, putting the security light on for that reason.

You have a really nice garden by the way.

2 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

no, exactly! that's why the azores low can do one and stay well out the way.

You just give me the biggest laugh when I see your name, come up Frank Trough absolutely brilliant!

No snow here at the moment

chance of a few flurries later

January 8

Can see the odd flake or two here out the window .

1 minute ago, jtay said:

We have a flurry.

Mc?

January 8

23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

TV forecasts now also following the models for next week.

All systems go.

Forecasting, cold and snow is extremely difficult in this country so much so that now they’ve decided to employ two presenters at the same time hopefully this will double our chances

January 8

13 minutes ago, fromey said:

Light flurry’s here in Bath

Nice one Fromey, none here back in Frome.

January 7

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Unbelievable mean!

Unbelievable, how those deep purples make it all the way down into northern and central Germany as well, absolutely frigid temperatures if that comes off

January 7

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Lovely run from the ICON, but it looked different to recent output to me, here’s an animation, we pick up the story at T90, watch the UK high:

It actually sinks, and the height rise into Greenland is exclusively from the WAA from Canada.

Thanks for posting that animation really love watching these.

At the end of that run, notice how there is an injection of exceptionally cold air over and off the coast of Norway. and it then moves from a north east Lee direction towards the south-west direction so maybe that lot can also give further impetus and prolong the cold, even deepen it to a point as well long way off, but who knows that’s what that animation appears to show to me the potential

January 7

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And it gets better ️️ let’s hope the GFS follows this !! Look at that NH

I wish all those purples and blues to the notheast over scandi and Siberia would move our way as that’s cold and unsettled not just cold . Low pressure

January 7

Hi Continental climate I couldn’t agree with you more about our little island is the worst place in the whole of the northern hemisphere despite us being quite relatively far north. When you look at Canada all the way across the Japan other places we have to be one of the worst places for cold weather in the winter. You get places much further south than us that get more snow and cold weather.

January 7

42 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

"Houston we have a problem"

You don't have to be a depressed pessimist to see things are trending the wrong way, the ENS are underwhelming and the ECM op a shadow of what was promised a few days ago.

Polish it as much as you want but you won't make the models shine, yes still plenty of time for upgrades as the cold spell is still a week away but we need to see the trend reverse soon.

If it is to go TU then I would rather it be now than at +72 which has happened in the past.

People look at upstream developments in the Pacific but for me it's Iberian Heights that's the issue, the drought in Spain is now serious and unprecedented with little sign of a change anytime soon.

Andy

Completely agree andy. Good post.

January 7

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very nice

Big upgrade

Morning Ali,

But on this chart the purples and blues have not yet made it to us so can you explain to a novis please why is this a big upgrade? Thanks

January 7

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Key difference is the lack of Greenland high due to issues over the pole and Greenland the outcome is higher heights over Iberia.

the outcome is not the cause, it’s not the Hadley cell expanding its other factors

Good post Frosty. But the fact of the lack of Greenland and Arctic Heights is allowing Iberian and Hadley cells to expand as everything is out of kilter

if you had an expanding Greenland high and Arctic high, this could balance things out, and probably reduce the constant influence of the resource, and Iberian Heights.

so good post from you as to look at it from that direction of the lack of the Heights in the north.

I guess the way I could summit up is look at it like a pair of scales.

On the left side, let’s go it, Greenland Arctic Heights and on the right side let’s call it, Iberian , Hadley cell azores.

If we reduce the weight on the left side, then the right side will be the dominant factor.

so thanks for your post. Good information that Adds to the reasoning of the high-pressure systems dominance to our south, which I sometimes post about.

I guess the next thing we could look at is, why are the Greenland and Arctic Heights so much less dominant than they were previously, and also as someone mentioned earlier, there is no consistency on a day-to-day basis.

is this down to a disrupted or broken current polar vortex or is this something else?

January 7

14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Key difference, Iberian heights, it’s always the same, the models can be far too overzealous in removing them at times

Completely agree with you there, whether wizard
it seems that the computer models and super computers put in historic data and come up with weather charts/forecasts but what they can’t count for is the increased strength and stubborness of these HPs which have such a dominant effect on our weather, even when they are not direct but to the south and south west.

it’s very difficult for forecasting as that is all it is whether we do what it wants to do, and as someone mentioned that the Arctic is in such a state at the moment of inconsistency there are no really cold, strong drivers coming from there and went up against powerful mild weather types guided warmer ocean temperatures and stronger Iberian and is high-pressure systems. Then it often gets watered down..

this is what we are up against now, and it’s gonna be taking quite some time before these changing weather. Patterns can be put into super computer data where they become historical is going to take time for that to be taken into account. when that happens, then we will get more accurate charts coming through as they will have built up enough data from now onwards of the changing patterns. So there should be much less of the inconsistencies that we see in the charts. Examples called cold pressure chance only to be watered down should become much less frequent as they can take into account all of the changing data that’s happening at the moment.

January 7

4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Dont forget, the N. Atlantic itself is around 2.5c warmer than normal.

Absolutely Matt , well pointed out, and of course that’s going to have an influence as well and dilute any cold air.

i’ve noticed this on the pressure charts over the years where you can see cold pools of air coming down in parts of the Atlantic. That seems to get diluted so quickly and as you rightly say about the water temperature being warmer than normal This will, of course have that detrimental affect of warming this cold air significantly faster than normal.

January 7

5 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

I know this isn't a CC thread, but one wonders why models go for nice, clean, 80s style blocking at mid range only for excess energy and shortwaves to scupper it all.

A warmer world with more 'energy' has to be the overriding teleconnection here, making it harder for HLB to occur.

Still, we've got a cool and dry week coming up and some Eastern areas have had short term upgrades. The UK will probably have a transient slider event next weekend before the Atlantic comes back, hopefully no as wet as December!

Excellent post and completely agree, especially in your first paragraph in comparables to the 1980s cleaner setups.

we are seeing the subtropical HPs become larger and more dominant in orientation

more static influencing our weather types. So now than ever.
although they were Aries about more freshwater, melt water entering the Atlantic disrupting, the Gulfstream last potentially leading the UK to colder winters, as there would be a much less west based dominance this has not really materialised as of yet as the Atlantic often dominates.

I even remember high-pressure systems coming down from the north, and whilst sometimes there was no snow, we had freezing temperatures overnight -15 below freezing in a day severe frost that would last all day just under a cold high-pressure system.

we don’t even seem to get cold high-pressure systems anymore, coming down from the north or north east residing over us.

A lot has definitely changed without a shadow of a doubt, but unfortunately that’s just leading to more mild wet and windy winters really.

January 7

4 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

NOPE.

"...overriding previously understood..."

THE ATLANTIC

Nowt's changed on that 'front'.

I agree any your Atlantic comment. It’s still as powerful as ever and of course it driven on by the Jet Stream and very strong blocking highs to the S/Sw so much of the time. All of the often deflected cold away from our shores on the European continent.

January 5

11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

People will never learn, this is the UK and we can never celebrate until the cold spell is in our backyards. Something always goes wrong, especially looking at charts 10+ days away.

Let’s hope the models are just having a bit of a wobble, but we’ve seen this so many times before. Solid agreement run after run, then it slowly starts to unravel.

Completely agree with you.

I only learned the hard way after doing exactly the same for many years, but then eventually the realisation was F1 D10 etc all too far out 4 to 5 days more reliable timeframe, but even that can go wrong at that. Short range.

of course, the charts could flip back into the favour of a more prolonged cold spell but unfortunately more often The case is things will get watered down nine times out of 10 near the time.

January 4

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9, what an amazing chart. apart to get it head on from the Arctic

Be good if those blues and purples from the northeast reach our shores.

January 4

Currently large amount of rain falling over my location. The pressure show this quite nicely but imagine if this was cold and snow which is what happened in 2018 where we had 31 cm of snow from a set up similar to today in terms of orientation and stagnant pivoting low.

this could be quite possible again, looking at the pressure charts from earlier today for many parts of the country. If the cold weather comes off with the models that are currently progged from earlier.

January 4

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Very nice!..my only concern there are such far out..we need to start seeing some within the 192-216 range..the gem was excellent,never really letting go of the cold..I think the ECM delays things..let's hope the ens are great

Hi lukeless,

I completely agree with you, 100%. These charts look like a snow winter wonderland for us, but we need to see these models at a much shorter timeframe. I would be much happier to see these at day four or five and then less

I have seen such potential progged before over the years only to change nearer the time, so really hoping that this time round all these cold scenarios can stick.

what is good so far is the each model run it’s not flip-flopping but now seems to be showing the potential of cold so the consistency of the runs is quite a nice thing to watch and hopefully bodes well for everybody.

January 4

this chart for me is the absolute pinnacle if this could verify. you have a beautiful tilted high-pressure system tilted in an north east lead direction, sat over Greenland, going up into. Svalbard. Then you have a tilted south-western north east low pressure system sat right over the UK and into Germany and Poland, giving a constant feed of cold and snow picking up moisture of the north sea as well feeding those heavy snow showers into wider areas of snow and troughs from the east
I have seen this set up once before I’m sure it was in 90s definitely seen it in the 80s but in the 90s I remember Francis wilson forecast saying when they expected it to break down and it just went on and and then it extended up and the weather was coming all the way from Siberia all the way down in a South Wesley direction from Siberia to hit the UK was incredible

January 4

7 hours ago, Uncertainty said:

Cansips, for January 2024, 10 months ago:

Cansips, June 2023

Cansips, today:

What a phenomenal forecast. The seasonals have absolutely smashed it. It’s easy for them in a 2019/2020 (eg mega zonal) paradigm but predicting blocking that far out is hard.

The 46 has also done pretty well after some early wobbles.

Peitao Pengs analogues have also done really well

The cfs is and always has been garbage, here’s an effort from august that it persisted with up until a few weeks ago. All this has done is throw doubt and apprehension into the mix. Fortunately, most of us were able to see past it.

So there you have it. The long awaited early 2024 blocking is upon us. Weather forecasting is hard, but if you listen to the signals, experts, telecons (EQBO, late Nino moving modoki, weak strat, mjo p1, fading iod, major +EAMT) and the models (if they show a really strong, consistent picture) then it is possible to go beyond ‘Fantasy Island’ and into the future. Read back through this thread and the winter preview thread. We called it. Great job folks.

And so it begins…

I hope you don’t mind, but I thought I would actually rotate one of these charts to focus on our part of the world. As so many times it’s always focusing on America and we actually live in the UK.
Just makes it a little bit clearer to me, at least when I can see it directly how it affects our shores and not over in America.

I am definitely being swayed more towards the cold by the consistency of each model run that comes out, pointing more towards the cold as opposed to any southern high-pressure blocking ruining this

.first we have a temporary smaller high-pressure over the northern north Sea, bringing in temporary, quite cold air from the east for a couple of days before that moderates and gets Above, but we may see surface cold, lingering before what looks like potentially cold north, north east 2010 type looking charts, bringing inwhat looks like very cold air. still early days and things can change as has happened in the past, but consensus is definitely pointing now more towards deep, cold lasting for at least a week possibly longer.

exciting times, but will be even better to see this verified with those type of charts at day three or four for me.

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