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offerman

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, danm said:

    Having being model watching now for a good 20 years, despite some substantial steps forward, the same maxim is true today - anything beyond 4 or 5 days is to be taken with a big dollop of salt, particularly when it comes to scenarios that could lead to proper cold and snow in the UK. So many pieces of the jigsaw need to fall into place for our island, that you are relying on each one of them to hold firm. Often if even one piece of the jigsaw fails to hold, the whole pattern can collapse, or get watered down. It's the price we pay for living in a temperate, maritime climate unfortunately. 

    I've lost count of the number of times us on here have chased a cold spell for it all to get washed away with a few consecutive runs. Unless it get within 4 to 5 days at the max, the advice is not to get too excited. 

    However, there are sometimes those exceptions where the cold spell does arrive and we get some good snowfall. It's what keeps the hope alive!

    Excellent post . Well explained. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    This will be the first below average rainfall month following 4 pretty hefty anomalously wet months. Very happy on that front. December starts dry and frosty for at least a week, in fact many days never getting above 3c, even then only an hour. Chance of snow and even if on the mountains, I can drive.

    Nick F points out the interest we can have for end of month period. Won't be long before that may or may not be coming into view. Plus surprises aplenty always pop up in the interval. Like this shot of cold.

    And I'd be suffering hyberbolics if I'd forgotten my thermals at 450 m in this weather too. So sympathies there 😉

    Hi Downburst,

     

    can you reply back to me what Nick said about what’s interesting come the end of the month?

     

    I wonder if that will involve Christmas Day itself or like the old days I remember getting colder after boxing day and sometimes a snowy New Year just would never happen early enough for Christmas generally. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Back in the early days of internet weather we didn't have precipitation type charts, we had Wetterzentrale and had to painstakingly look at every possible variable, whether or not there was any actual precipitation around was often one of the last things to be looked at! 

    Kids these days.. 😜

    And magnetic symbols 😉

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, James1979 said:

    You can definitely make it up, it's happened multiple times every winter for the last 2 decades of being around this forum, its why I gave up getting into the models over a decade ago. Past a few days, stopped clock, etc, etc.. same in summer re storms. 

    Hi james
    I just made a post a few minutes ago, and after that I carried on reading through the thread, then came across your post and thought crikey how our minds and experiences have witnessed the same disappointments. really like your post as it is true. Unfortunately for the past two decades, it does seem to have been like this on so many occasions. I think what I struggled to understand is why there is always this breakdown when initially it’s looking really good for some cold snowy weather. I wonder what the reason is for all of the models to show such great wintry weather but near enough every time gets broken down, I wonder why the pattern keeps repeating itself, and why the same mistakes by the modelling systems keep happening. I find it intriguing and of course frustrating for snow and cold fans like me. 
    what I do find encouraging so far is that there is no massive stagnant as yours, high or Euro slug which has so often been the cause of just relentless mild winters. I often use the slider with each set of output charts and I fast forward and rewind and fast forward. Then you get to see the bigger picture as opposed to just on a single frame. it just shows you how fluid the atmosphere and all the micro weather patterns mixed into the larger continental influences and Atlantic influences all mix and mash together.

    there is always high when it does appear it’s not there for long and gets shunted along towards into the med and I have noticed some more tilted heights that then follow behind and more mid-Atlantic which is a great sign. Because once you get those stagnant heights they can be hard to shift. Of course, I wouldn’t complain if we had a nice stagnant Scandi or Greenland high. 

    we do need a good solid blocking high mid-Atlantic linking up to the north and north east of the UK. At the moment. Atlantic does seem quite mobile and powerful at times especially when you move the slider and view the charts in fast forward motion you can see, it’s a constant conveyor belt of mostly low pressures coming off the eastern seaboard over to our neck of the woods. We are entering into a small period of some good blocking, but as has been the case that has brought us a lot of rain during October and November. More mobility will return by the looks of it after this cold spell and those pens are quite hard to shift and just block all of a sudden. 
     

    but a good start to winter with some cold weather, incoming, even if dry.

    let’s just hope we can get some of the cold that is built up to our north and east, filtered in over us through the winter at times, if we can. 

     

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, John88B said:

    Not the most inspiring runs overnight for those of a cold persuasion but we do have a few days of cold weather nailed on and plenty of time for the models to take a turn for the better👍

    Anyway it's still not even officially winter yet!

     

    Hi John

    unfortunately, I’ve been around for quite a long time and I’ve all too many times seen so much potential to be just watered down on a daily basis towards the event. I’ve always learned to take these long-term charts just with a pinch of salt. That has been the occasion where it’s actually changed for the better when things hadn’t looked so great and then it changed so much into the favour of coldie snowy fans. 
     

    as you rightly say, though, we’re not even officially in winter at the moment, so a really good start even if we just get the cold dry weather, you mention, will still make it feel that festive feeling.

    Who knows these charts could improve, and it could be one of those rare occasions when it goes in our favour. One thing is for sure we have seen the yo-yo effect with daily output charts and forecasting. 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

    We don't all live in the 'South' old bean 😁👍 as you were...

    Absolutely agree with you, and I didn’t mean it in the way it was taken.

    All I meant was the initial extensive snow chances on Thursday were progged for the south and I was just merely stating that that no longer looks to be the case. 
     

    If someone from Scotland was talking about their snow chances that had diminished then that’s fine with me. Good to know what’s going on in their part of the world as well is the way I look at it. 

    • Like 7
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Beeb have gone with further South but said if further North then it's a snowy story, but think South it is 

    image.thumb.png.00a93e2052110f46ebe30e430e882315.png

    Shame South is to miss out on what so many had said, would be a Thursday snow event.

    never mind, it’s really early days in the season. Sure there will be plenty more chances to come. 
    we may get some showers popping up that turn into troughs, marching their way from East to west. 

    • Like 4

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Andy, 

    How much rain has fallen in the last three or four days in our area as it’s absolutely chucking it down again this morning as it did through the night and then yesterday with the streamer from the Bristol channel right across our area. We must’ve had between 2 to 3 inches on guessing with the volume of rain that’s come down for the prolonged length of time. 

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The winds here, don’t seem to have been as severe as I thought they were going to be.  I thought the winds were going to be at their most severe during the early hours. but when I’ve looked at the radar and the low pressure system, I think we are in the lull area of the low pressure currently I have a feeling the wind could pick up again during daylight hours later this morning as it looks quite slow moving.

    stay safe everyone as it looks like it could be quite bad as  all the outlets have alluded to previously.  

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Somerset girl said:

    A beautiful day here today,  23.6C sunshine and warm despite a slight breeze. 

    I went to a doggy birthday party , my daughter's dog who is just gorgeous is 3 today.  It was in a special dog paddock with obstacle course,  paddling pool and hot tub . 

    He had his doggy pals who were all brilliantly behaved were having a fab time just being able to run around and be dogs  and I saw all, four of my lovely children . 

    Feeling better in  myself today and I've decided to get some decent vitamins as my long term meds apparently deplete key vitamins that food alone won't restore . 

    Thanks for your support on here it does help just to get it out of my head. 

     

    Going to maybe go to the coast tomorrow and have a little stroll . 

     

    Hope you feel better soon @Dorsetbred. 

    I haven’t been on the thread much for awhile, so not sure what you’ve been through Somerset go but hope you’re on the bright side of things now moving forwards. 

    • Thanks 1
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