offerman

MP-R I was thinking exactly the same earlier I looked at the pressure charts saw the high-pressure that looked very close by and yet there’s this astonishing amount of rain so close, so I refresh the charts, thinking that I was looking at an old set from a few days before or something but it refreshed and showed the same set of charts. So a great observation from you MPR as I thought the same. Still chucking it down very heavy rain since 5pm

Absolutely chucking it down here for the last few hours! Floods will no doubt be prevalent once again on soddened ground from ahead heavy rain through last week and huge amounts the weeks prior to that. Looks like lots more to come the next week or so aswell .

Andy Bown I was thinking the same Andy Have had many hours of heavy rain here in Frome as you probably have over there and it’s still going now we must’ve had between one or 2 inches of rain and the weekend looks like there could be more rain so flooding looks increasingly likely on top of already saturated ground and surface water from the last bouts of rain

Hotspur62 I feel that it’s higher pressures, more stagnated topography of these, forcing up milder winds from the south and south-west, so the pressure charts often resemble in reality very similar patterns to our Southwest, and these are particularly strong in recent years and a hard to shift out of the way So I’m not sure when these long-range forecasts come out they are looking at certain drivers for sure whether they include these recent stagnant high-pressure systems. Well that I’m not so sure of. if you turn a standing fan on, and it’s blowing cold air with no obstruction in the way, but if you put a wall in the place of the flow, this will disrupt this colder flow of air, and if you have a strong wall with a strong, counteracting driver behind it. This will inevitably. Prohibit the colder, incursions and certainly any longevity, but make it very difficult to get any cold in place The wall is equivalent of the high-pressure systems that we have encountered through most of this winter to our Southwest Also, just to add to my last post, the fact that there has not been any particularly strong Arctic high-pressure systems as well, but also they seem to have been many more smaller disturbances, and as we all know, it only takes one small disturbance in the far north to disrupt any potential flows south, plus there’s also been warmer sea temperatures as well, so the warmth has been exacerbated still further from our Southwest.

That ECM until summer then northery or easterly blasts take place

E17boy I have also been banging on about this for sometime that these high-pressure charts to our south and south-west are stronger and more dominant than ever, which practically every time seems to obliterate any cold that get modelled in any forecasts. Of course you get the odd blast that does make it through occasionally. What I have noticed as well, putting aside the Iberian, and as high is that there seem to be more smaller disturbances in any colder potential flows often disrupting the chances of cold, so combine that with the high-pressure systems to our south, and it is more often than not against our favour, especially nowadays

Quite a lot of rain, the last 4 to 5 hours or so and lots more to come looking at the radar which is going to increase flood warnings again due to high River levels from the last load of rain so state looks like being even more rain than today so looks like severe flood warnings will be on the way back unfortunately so be careful out there everybody this week

TillyS well said things always, keep getting pushed back on the charts. Like you say when the charts are far out such as 10 days or even further, just take with a pinch of salt 5 to 6 days can start to be taken seriously, but even that subject change completely agree with you about your last decade comment with the lack of Easterlies . That ECM what Exceter said?

jules216 good obersavations there jules about SW russian airmass. We do need some good deep cold to tap in to. if LP can stick around and in the correct trajectory then this could help sustain a small easterly NE flow for short topography lockin of cold . Any further cold would be short live as most likely transitionary snow before Atlantic takes control.

KTtom I think that’s the longest weather front I have ever seen!

cyclonic happiness morning cyclonic Thank you for your post that’s absolutely incredible. There are definitely some strange anomalies on this small island !

MP-R excellent point, which I have also made before I’ve seen this over Germany, where snow showers can make it across the whole country and yet that’s only land, but here they just seem to fizzle out or any bands of snow quite often fizzle out it’s really

@WYorksWeather great post wyw. good point, and also the fact that you mentioned that actually looks like increasing and not decreasing is a good observation. It seems to me that telekinetic has less of an effect, when we have such strong local anomalies, which often deflect revurbations from further afield!

@Kasim Awan hi Kasim Yes i noticed this as well. Send to be a stubourn pattern and often wins out. So unless this dilutes to or south then currently there’s no chance of any longevity of cooler weather. Southern heights far too strong at present. All the talk was Feb 5th -10th cold which does not look likely to me. Things could change of course but not looking likely at this conjuncture.

@ANYWEATHER agree completely . It’s a setup unfortunately that has differed is this winter so far. Cold potential but either stubbourn heights to our south or too much mobility mid Atlantic preventing cold sinking south and holding but instead mobility returns. Any cold at present too far out and of any verifies will require dispersion of azores/iberian heights and also a nice mid Atlantic/greeny or scandi block.

@damianslaw nice post, Damien, I do agree that 5 6 day timeframe starts to become more semi reliable timeframe, but as we know, even that can be subject to change during this time, but at least five or six days out is more of a guide. It’s better to be cautious, and at the moment, take it with a pinch of salt, and any further out than that with regards to a cold spell as we’ve seen so much already shots and forecast flip-flop on a daily basis. Because the Arctic has been in such a mess with no large sustained, weather patter to be the guider of a More, certain outcome. The weather patterns are much harder to predict and what I have found looking this winter, as there has been so many more smaller areas and pockets of disruption, and all you need is one of those in the wrong place to disrupt the whole colder potential. that’s one thing, I’ve noticed that’s changed over the recent years, whereas before I remember you may have a large north, Atlantic, mid Atlantic high extending up Linking into a Greenland high driving down, Nally went straight from the Arctic all the way through the UK down into France. when you look how far any colder air reaches it struggles to get down over the whole of the UK, but it has made it on occasion this winter, but there was always seems to have been southern blocking, or the orientation of any highs have not been sustained, but have contained more mobility to them so you have a brief northerly blast with usual coastal wintry showers East West and North, but there’s been no chance of topers because the high has been forced in across and then passed us allowing one Southwest lease to come back in . The weather patterns are very mobile. This winter has lacked static structured patterns to them. what will February bring? Let’s wait-and-see, but at this conjuncture. I’d say it’s too far out and as you rightly pointed out five or six day is when we can, then start taking it more seriously and bring it into the semi reliable timeframe

Just read the next monthly forecast from Netweather. Will be really interesting to see if the synoptics play out. Will be nice to have some calmer dryer weather for a change for all of us. if high-pressure does take control will be good to see some nice dark, clear, starry nights. Will be interesting to see how long any Greenland high will sustain, and with pressure forecast to drop over scandinavia in some of that period could be quite chilly too.

Hi Mapantz, thank you for posting model/specs. Much appreciated Will do pm soon

had some extreme wins here in the last 40 minutes. I think they must’ve been associated with either a squall line or something as that was really windy. would be interesting to see the gusts for this neck of the wood for the last 40 minutes or so. it’s tied down a little bit, but still really really windy as I’m typing this, I just heard another intense gust stay safe out there guys, if anyone has had to venture out There’s also been a tremendous amount of rain, the last couple of hours as well. I’m wondering if there would be as much as 40 to 50 mm as it was quite intense for a long period of time

There is going to be more serious issues with floods. I suspect with river levels still high from the last load of rain, the ground still saturated and the ice melting that had frozen a lot of the flood water previously now thawing out. looks like at least two more serious falls of rain and lots of wind on Tuesday and Thursday on top of what’s falling down tonight as well

Hi Mapantz can you tell me make and model of your torch please as it looks brilliant coverage.

As you say the METOFFICE are not updating anything in the south, most likely cause we’re highly unlikely to get any precipitation at all, and if we do it may not be disruptive. there were a couple of posters that alluded to sudden updates, and I can vouch for those as they do happen couple years ago around breakfast time. There was a sudden red warning that was put out around Bath and north east Somerset, just in a small area but that literally came out of nowhere within about a half hour period.

Hi MIA thanks for your post again and brilliant. It is as the last ones you put out as well and thanks for the corrections. I think you made an interest in point about overblown Lows as well and that’s a classic example of why can’t they update the algorithms /systems with data that would then output are more realistic option . it will be great when we see the day when they can put in place, what you have suggested, and correct the software.

Completely agree with that post. GFS or any charts that Far out are going to be so difficult and near on impossible to create a forecast from that. It’s difficult at the best of times, even 10 days out let alone that far. Quite right, which unfortunately has become larger, stronger, more dominant and stagnant combine that with the shift north of the subtropical belt as well. ( someone posted the link not long ago to back this up about the shift Northwards)

Hundred percent agree with you Nick I think that’s exactly the case even in short time frames we’ve seen this a lot before.