offerman

Thanks for the update Jo

Crickey, look at all that snow in the channel and over northern France, if only that was another hundred miles north the whole lot.

Yes Southampton in South Hampshire got some today i saw a photo from earlier and had nice covering.

Only had few flakes on off here but will done to all that receive a good covering.

the amount of times I’ve done that over the years you’re not alone, putting the security light on for that reason. You have a really nice garden by the way. You just give me the biggest laugh when I see your name, come up Frank Trough absolutely brilliant! No snow here at the moment chance of a few flurries later

Can see the odd flake or two here out the window . Mc?

Forecasting, cold and snow is extremely difficult in this country so much so that now they’ve decided to employ two presenters at the same time hopefully this will double our chances

Nice one Fromey, none here back in Frome.

Unbelievable, how those deep purples make it all the way down into northern and central Germany as well, absolutely frigid temperatures if that comes off

Thanks for posting that animation really love watching these. At the end of that run, notice how there is an injection of exceptionally cold air over and off the coast of Norway. and it then moves from a north east Lee direction towards the south-west direction so maybe that lot can also give further impetus and prolong the cold, even deepen it to a point as well long way off, but who knows that’s what that animation appears to show to me the potential

I wish all those purples and blues to the notheast over scandi and Siberia would move our way as that’s cold and unsettled not just cold . Low pressure

Hi Continental climate I couldn’t agree with you more about our little island is the worst place in the whole of the northern hemisphere despite us being quite relatively far north. When you look at Canada all the way across the Japan other places we have to be one of the worst places for cold weather in the winter. You get places much further south than us that get more snow and cold weather.

Completely agree andy. Good post.

Morning Ali, But on this chart the purples and blues have not yet made it to us so can you explain to a novis please why is this a big upgrade? Thanks

Good post Frosty. But the fact of the lack of Greenland and Arctic Heights is allowing Iberian and Hadley cells to expand as everything is out of kilter if you had an expanding Greenland high and Arctic high, this could balance things out, and probably reduce the constant influence of the resource, and Iberian Heights. so good post from you as to look at it from that direction of the lack of the Heights in the north. I guess the way I could summit up is look at it like a pair of scales. On the left side, let’s go it, Greenland Arctic Heights and on the right side let’s call it, Iberian , Hadley cell azores. If we reduce the weight on the left side, then the right side will be the dominant factor. so thanks for your post. Good information that Adds to the reasoning of the high-pressure systems dominance to our south, which I sometimes post about. I guess the next thing we could look at is, why are the Greenland and Arctic Heights so much less dominant than they were previously, and also as someone mentioned earlier, there is no consistency on a day-to-day basis. is this down to a disrupted or broken current polar vortex or is this something else?

Completely agree with you there, whether wizard it seems that the computer models and super computers put in historic data and come up with weather charts/forecasts but what they can’t count for is the increased strength and stubborness of these HPs which have such a dominant effect on our weather, even when they are not direct but to the south and south west. it’s very difficult for forecasting as that is all it is whether we do what it wants to do, and as someone mentioned that the Arctic is in such a state at the moment of inconsistency there are no really cold, strong drivers coming from there and went up against powerful mild weather types guided warmer ocean temperatures and stronger Iberian and is high-pressure systems. Then it often gets watered down.. this is what we are up against now, and it’s gonna be taking quite some time before these changing weather. Patterns can be put into super computer data where they become historical is going to take time for that to be taken into account. when that happens, then we will get more accurate charts coming through as they will have built up enough data from now onwards of the changing patterns. So there should be much less of the inconsistencies that we see in the charts. Examples called cold pressure chance only to be watered down should become much less frequent as they can take into account all of the changing data that’s happening at the moment.

Absolutely Matt , well pointed out, and of course that’s going to have an influence as well and dilute any cold air. i’ve noticed this on the pressure charts over the years where you can see cold pools of air coming down in parts of the Atlantic. That seems to get diluted so quickly and as you rightly say about the water temperature being warmer than normal This will, of course have that detrimental affect of warming this cold air significantly faster than normal.

Excellent post and completely agree, especially in your first paragraph in comparables to the 1980s cleaner setups. we are seeing the subtropical HPs become larger and more dominant in orientation more static influencing our weather types. So now than ever. although they were Aries about more freshwater, melt water entering the Atlantic disrupting, the Gulfstream last potentially leading the UK to colder winters, as there would be a much less west based dominance this has not really materialised as of yet as the Atlantic often dominates. I even remember high-pressure systems coming down from the north, and whilst sometimes there was no snow, we had freezing temperatures overnight -15 below freezing in a day severe frost that would last all day just under a cold high-pressure system. we don’t even seem to get cold high-pressure systems anymore, coming down from the north or north east residing over us. A lot has definitely changed without a shadow of a doubt, but unfortunately that’s just leading to more mild wet and windy winters really.

I agree any your Atlantic comment. It’s still as powerful as ever and of course it driven on by the Jet Stream and very strong blocking highs to the S/Sw so much of the time. All of the often deflected cold away from our shores on the European continent.

Completely agree with you. I only learned the hard way after doing exactly the same for many years, but then eventually the realisation was F1 D10 etc all too far out 4 to 5 days more reliable timeframe, but even that can go wrong at that. Short range. of course, the charts could flip back into the favour of a more prolonged cold spell but unfortunately more often The case is things will get watered down nine times out of 10 near the time.

Be good if those blues and purples from the northeast reach our shores.

Currently large amount of rain falling over my location. The pressure show this quite nicely but imagine if this was cold and snow which is what happened in 2018 where we had 31 cm of snow from a set up similar to today in terms of orientation and stagnant pivoting low. this could be quite possible again, looking at the pressure charts from earlier today for many parts of the country. If the cold weather comes off with the models that are currently progged from earlier.

Hi lukeless, I completely agree with you, 100%. These charts look like a snow winter wonderland for us, but we need to see these models at a much shorter timeframe. I would be much happier to see these at day four or five and then less I have seen such potential progged before over the years only to change nearer the time, so really hoping that this time round all these cold scenarios can stick. what is good so far is the each model run it’s not flip-flopping but now seems to be showing the potential of cold so the consistency of the runs is quite a nice thing to watch and hopefully bodes well for everybody.

this chart for me is the absolute pinnacle if this could verify. you have a beautiful tilted high-pressure system tilted in an north east lead direction, sat over Greenland, going up into. Svalbard. Then you have a tilted south-western north east low pressure system sat right over the UK and into Germany and Poland, giving a constant feed of cold and snow picking up moisture of the north sea as well feeding those heavy snow showers into wider areas of snow and troughs from the east I have seen this set up once before I’m sure it was in 90s definitely seen it in the 80s but in the 90s I remember Francis wilson forecast saying when they expected it to break down and it just went on and and then it extended up and the weather was coming all the way from Siberia all the way down in a South Wesley direction from Siberia to hit the UK was incredible

I hope you don’t mind, but I thought I would actually rotate one of these charts to focus on our part of the world. As so many times it’s always focusing on America and we actually live in the UK. Just makes it a little bit clearer to me, at least when I can see it directly how it affects our shores and not over in America. I am definitely being swayed more towards the cold by the consistency of each model run that comes out, pointing more towards the cold as opposed to any southern high-pressure blocking ruining this .first we have a temporary smaller high-pressure over the northern north Sea, bringing in temporary, quite cold air from the east for a couple of days before that moderates and gets Above, but we may see surface cold, lingering before what looks like potentially cold north, north east 2010 type looking charts, bringing inwhat looks like very cold air. still early days and things can change as has happened in the past, but consensus is definitely pointing now more towards deep, cold lasting for at least a week possibly longer. exciting times, but will be even better to see this verified with those type of charts at day three or four for me.