offerman

Oh yes i absolutely loved watching those forecasters with the magnetic symbols. wish they would bring that back for a cold spell forecast.

Agree, best to be cautious.

Nice sensible post there Nick. I always read and respect what you write. You have good knowledge and are realistic well balanced as well.

Completely agree, whilst so much money has been spent on these, they can assist to a point but they are not definitive in their accuracy and have been wrong on so many occasions, especially when coldweather is concerned, but they have been correct when wind and rain, and quite often protecting warmer weather is concerned in summer.

That’s a good point . unfortunately, this is a common occurrence. I’ve been around so long to witness this time after time. our weather can come from four notable directions however, the most common of these is west or south-west. This makes predictions so far out so fickle and subject to change even in short time frames sometimes.. it’s extremely difficult to get Easterlies as a rule of thumb . Northerlies used to be fairly common and would easily cover the whole of the UK even down into France and northern Spain. nowadays, it does seem harder for these to penetrate so far south. The models don’t struggle at all to Prog this multiple times during every winter, but the differences these often get water down as the days leading up to the initial target approach. and the culprit for the change is the expansion of the Hadley cell. This has been a key blocker and deflector of cold, which often then dives down into northern and central parts of Europe. this is just a fact of our unfortunate location on this island, but also the ever-changing high-pressure systems which do become stronger and more stagnant as time has gone on, and the years have passed. we may get some cold middle of January and it could be one of the rare occasions when all the talk of cold weather approaching could come true. my advice is just cautious because I’ve fallen into the trap so many times before of getting excited at the prospect of cold, but often can get forecast even by the pros only to be watered down and then missing us. it could be we just end up with dry cold-ish. Weather not exceptionally so, but would be a welcome break from all the wind, rain and floods and misery for so many. they could be other chances to come as winter is in its early days still. I know the Sun gets stronger, particularly in March and April, but I even remember and also not that long ago. Heavy snowfall in March which could stick around for awhile despite the Sun and then he snowfalls that could last a day or two on the ground in April not that that’s what we particularly want for longevity, but could still be a little bit of fun if that happens. so who knows, we may get one or two cold spells before the winter has passed. unfortunately, the weather is just a complete lottery and supercomputers can only do so much in their predictions which has become more and more difficult with the changing weather patterns and blocking patterns which often establish at this time of year, but not always in the correct place for us to bring in the cold weather, but still not impossible. good luck for cold and snow, lovers like myself. but don’t be disappointed if this mid January cold spell does not materialise as it will not be the first time and not the last that this time has happened and if it does happen let’s all enjoy it and be glad of it. i’ll be more excited when we get into the 4 to 5 day timeframe of any deep cold charts, but even that can change, but it’s more of a certainty and looking at day 10 and beyond.

I wish everyone a very happy christmas. im currently in germany and yesterday at 297 asl had heavy unexpected snow and managed to get out with my boy for dome snowball fights before very heavy rain csme in and melted all the 15cm that fell yesterday. i wish you all a merry christmas happy and healthy new year and of course some snow to those that would like some

Ive lost count over the years this has happened . It seems hsrder thsn ever id say to forescast

I don’t want to clog up the boards, but just echo and earlier post I made to Matt for you as well Sparky and anyone else that has been through this recently or within the last year or longer. Love peace and healing to you and everyone.

Hi Matt, I am so so sorry for you and your family with the loss of your dad. Nothing accounts for the loss, but it’s good he passed peacefully with family around him. I really understand you and I can say that to you as I lost my mum one year ago just before christmas so first proper Christmas without her is going to be extremely tough. it sounds like you have a good family to all be around at that time so you will have people you can talk to remember the good times as well. I also lost my dad like you before Mum two years prior. I also lost a very close friend through suicide this year and currently sister has terminal cancer. we have to remain positive and I always try and be grateful and thankful for the lovely times, I had with Mum and such a close relationship. I know what you will also remain positive as well. I’m not sure how old your dad was but as time goes by you remember more and more of the good times. My mum had so much suffering. The nurses said it was absolutely awful what she had so in a way it was best that she went as she was just existing not living and in tremendous pain and there was nothing they could do about it. I did everything I could looked after her 24/7 was her carer as I was with Dad. And it sounds like you have been a great son to your father Matt. so my heart felt deepest condolences to you all from the bottom of my heart mate x

Thank you for those simulations, as they are brilliant to watch on a larger scale. How do you find these?

maybe so, but you make an important point at the end of your post about the fact that it’s harder to shift and that’s exactly what seems to have happened. In my opinion.. Great post and thank you for the link to the article.

I have noticed that as well on my trip to Spain over the years, far less thunderstorms and rainfall in general. And even when there have been low pressure systems over the country, there was actually no evaporation to suck up clouds to deliver rainfall and storms that was actually stated in the news. It was so dry, even with low pressure there was no moisture around..

So I have a question regarding Dec 2010 charts. What made those northerly and north-easterly incursions, so strong and persistent for so long? how come the Atlantic could never break it down, and also high-pressure systems, such as azores, Iberian and Euro slug never were around to stop the cold December happening, but instead where much much further west and south in the Atlantic. how come it seems so rare to get a high-pressure moving down from the Arctic or backing westward from South Siberia into Scandinavia. is it because of the warmer seas keeping the weather more mobile stronger, Atlantic systems, stronger, high pressures caused by warmer waters? thanks

Thanks Blue, as I have also been emphasising these high-pressure systems, which have been such a pain in southern blocking of cold northerly flows instead just deflecting them. Excellent post.

In my opinion, it’s the problem that we always encounter with the potential looks good such in this case is the high-pressure that often presides to our south-west, but in this case is migrating to the south of the UK. This then just deflects more mild subtropical flow up which counteracts the potential code northerly that would have happened. Should the high not have been there. It looked nice set up with low pressure over Scandinavia. High pressure over Greenland with some really nice deep cold coming down between Greenland and Scandinavia. The issue definitely is the powerful Hadley cell that migrates into an Iberian high. This is the bug bear and winter preventative for our island at the moment, but also over so many years. if we can get this to move, I have indicated this will allow a nice northerly flow to become entrenched. The weather patterns of the Atlantic are just to Mobile at the moment. In my opinion, there’s too much fluidity. Scandinavian high-pressure systems are very rare in delivering a good Northeast or easterly blast for us back in the day, they did seem to be more common than current years.

Hi Pressure, is too much in control for my liking and always too close to our south-west. That’s not allowing the cold to flood south. we need that high to go more mid-Atlantic and not elongated, but vertical opening floodgates, and at the moment I can’t see that happening on the latest runs

This is often the problem, we need that high to our south to either move far westward or migrate northwest or northeast to bring in the colder weather

Absolutely spot-on with that post

Nice post. I can also add and agree with you as I’ve been around even longer since the early 70s and I often remember cold snowy periods starting either on boxing day or just after and quite often Christmas Day could be fairly mild, sometimes frosty or rainy but generally, and I always remember Mum saying to me, it always seem to be the way that cold snowy weather could start on the 27th or 28th and run through the New Year period I don’t know why that is but I’ve seen so many occasions over the decades where that has happened and when they were forecast of a cold snowy Christmas, they were diluted right down nearer the time only to be delayed to the New Year. But to answer your question yes I would bite your arm off to have a nice week of cold snowy weather starting from the 27th or 28th through the New Year period.

And there’s the usual winter cold prospects killer . It’s either Euro slug, a high Iberian high but here we have huge strong, powerful Bartlett high. This will bring some really nice sunshine. Most welcome for so many including myself, but unfortunately the positioning of this high completely the wrong place for crisp, cold, snowy weather. Still got to be better than all the Wind rain, but we’ve all relentlessly suffered from the last couple of months. of course for me, personally I’d love to see some cold and snow as many of you do as well, but quite often this time of year we played by high pressures to ourselves and south-west. someone recently I was joking with back-and-forth about how the high-pressure comes up in the winter, but desserts us sometimes in the summer how it’s the wrong way round lol. Beggars can’t be choosers. you never know, we may get a nice set up a couple of points through the winter to give us a little part of our snow fix.

This is so far out and of course a lot of things can change and I normally take charts so far away with a pinch of salt but the reason I’m posting this screenshot is to show how there is no azores / iberian high around whatsoever which is exactly what you want for the cold to come down nicely and flood all the way down into France and beyond ( no hold ups just a clear path through the uk , and this chart looks like one of the old classic cold spell setups if it just can verify would be amazing!!

Was just having a little joke

Formula 1

I expect Bradford and Avon probably will get flooded from this as well

Agree with you to a point, but there have been occasions where the Teleconnections don’t apply to our local at times stubborn weather patterns.