offerman

Hi Jacob The only problem for people south east of Wales, Northeast, Somerset, Wiltshire area with snow coming in from the north-west is quite often the Welsh mountains, suck the life out of any moisture, and they get a dumping, and we get residual cloud and the odd flurry.

Excellent post . Well explained.

Hi Downburst, can you reply back to me what Nick said about what’s interesting come the end of the month? I wonder if that will involve Christmas Day itself or like the old days I remember getting colder after boxing day and sometimes a snowy New Year just would never happen early enough for Christmas generally.

And magnetic symbols

Hi james I just made a post a few minutes ago, and after that I carried on reading through the thread, then came across your post and thought crikey how our minds and experiences have witnessed the same disappointments. really like your post as it is true. Unfortunately for the past two decades, it does seem to have been like this on so many occasions. I think what I struggled to understand is why there is always this breakdown when initially it’s looking really good for some cold snowy weather. I wonder what the reason is for all of the models to show such great wintry weather but near enough every time gets broken down, I wonder why the pattern keeps repeating itself, and why the same mistakes by the modelling systems keep happening. I find it intriguing and of course frustrating for snow and cold fans like me. what I do find encouraging so far is that there is no massive stagnant as yours, high or Euro slug which has so often been the cause of just relentless mild winters. I often use the slider with each set of output charts and I fast forward and rewind and fast forward. Then you get to see the bigger picture as opposed to just on a single frame. it just shows you how fluid the atmosphere and all the micro weather patterns mixed into the larger continental influences and Atlantic influences all mix and mash together. there is always high when it does appear it’s not there for long and gets shunted along towards into the med and I have noticed some more tilted heights that then follow behind and more mid-Atlantic which is a great sign. Because once you get those stagnant heights they can be hard to shift. Of course, I wouldn’t complain if we had a nice stagnant Scandi or Greenland high. we do need a good solid blocking high mid-Atlantic linking up to the north and north east of the UK. At the moment. Atlantic does seem quite mobile and powerful at times especially when you move the slider and view the charts in fast forward motion you can see, it’s a constant conveyor belt of mostly low pressures coming off the eastern seaboard over to our neck of the woods. We are entering into a small period of some good blocking, but as has been the case that has brought us a lot of rain during October and November. More mobility will return by the looks of it after this cold spell and those pens are quite hard to shift and just block all of a sudden. but a good start to winter with some cold weather, incoming, even if dry. let’s just hope we can get some of the cold that is built up to our north and east, filtered in over us through the winter at times, if we can.

Hi John unfortunately, I’ve been around for quite a long time and I’ve all too many times seen so much potential to be just watered down on a daily basis towards the event. I’ve always learned to take these long-term charts just with a pinch of salt. That has been the occasion where it’s actually changed for the better when things hadn’t looked so great and then it changed so much into the favour of coldie snowy fans. as you rightly say, though, we’re not even officially in winter at the moment, so a really good start even if we just get the cold dry weather, you mention, will still make it feel that festive feeling. Who knows these charts could improve, and it could be one of those rare occasions when it goes in our favour. One thing is for sure we have seen the yo-yo effect with daily output charts and forecasting.

Absolutely agree with you, and I didn’t mean it in the way it was taken. All I meant was the initial extensive snow chances on Thursday were progged for the south and I was just merely stating that that no longer looks to be the case. If someone from Scotland was talking about their snow chances that had diminished then that’s fine with me. Good to know what’s going on in their part of the world as well is the way I look at it.

Shame South is to miss out on what so many had said, would be a Thursday snow event. never mind, it’s really early days in the season. Sure there will be plenty more chances to come. we may get some showers popping up that turn into troughs, marching their way from East to west.

Andy, How much rain has fallen in the last three or four days in our area as it’s absolutely chucking it down again this morning as it did through the night and then yesterday with the streamer from the Bristol channel right across our area. We must’ve had between 2 to 3 inches on guessing with the volume of rain that’s come down for the prolonged length of time.

Absolutely spot on, I was thinking that and even now there’s hardly any wind out there.

The winds here, don’t seem to have been as severe as I thought they were going to be. I thought the winds were going to be at their most severe during the early hours. but when I’ve looked at the radar and the low pressure system, I think we are in the lull area of the low pressure currently I have a feeling the wind could pick up again during daylight hours later this morning as it looks quite slow moving. stay safe everyone as it looks like it could be quite bad as all the outlets have alluded to previously.

Certainly was last night!

Yes, it was rain, literally for two minutes quite big raindrops much to my surprise!!

I haven’t been on the thread much for awhile, so not sure what you’ve been through Somerset go but hope you’re on the bright side of things now moving forwards.

Now the Sun is finally shining funny day!

Talk about a day of 2 halves!!

Heavy rain shower now!! Couldn’t make it up! Budgie loving it though just went to bring him in but hes loving it

Hope you get well soon dorsetbread.

Well I’m down there tomorrow at sandbanks with my boy so can’t wait.

You can see off in the distance clearing which is directly south, so I’m assuming on the south coast they’ve got a lovely sunny clear day. this cloud is not showing on the radar

Thought it was to be a clear warm day today. Clouds all day today so far!

Sorry Dorset. Yes , Dorset in to NE Somerset in to Wilts

Do you think those storms currently off nw france could teach us ?

Just steady rain here despite the blacks on the radar.

Definitely getting much darker hair like it could kick off at any moment feeling