offerman

Just read the next monthly forecast from Netweather. Will be really interesting to see if the synoptics play out. Will be nice to have some calmer dryer weather for a change for all of us. if high-pressure does take control will be good to see some nice dark, clear, starry nights. Will be interesting to see how long any Greenland high will sustain, and with pressure forecast to drop over scandinavia in some of that period could be quite chilly too.

Hi Mapantz, thank you for posting model/specs. Much appreciated Will do pm soon

had some extreme wins here in the last 40 minutes. I think they must’ve been associated with either a squall line or something as that was really windy. would be interesting to see the gusts for this neck of the wood for the last 40 minutes or so. it’s tied down a little bit, but still really really windy as I’m typing this, I just heard another intense gust stay safe out there guys, if anyone has had to venture out There’s also been a tremendous amount of rain, the last couple of hours as well. I’m wondering if there would be as much as 40 to 50 mm as it was quite intense for a long period of time

There is going to be more serious issues with floods. I suspect with river levels still high from the last load of rain, the ground still saturated and the ice melting that had frozen a lot of the flood water previously now thawing out. looks like at least two more serious falls of rain and lots of wind on Tuesday and Thursday on top of what’s falling down tonight as well

Hi Mapantz can you tell me make and model of your torch please as it looks brilliant coverage.

As you say the METOFFICE are not updating anything in the south, most likely cause we’re highly unlikely to get any precipitation at all, and if we do it may not be disruptive. there were a couple of posters that alluded to sudden updates, and I can vouch for those as they do happen couple years ago around breakfast time. There was a sudden red warning that was put out around Bath and north east Somerset, just in a small area but that literally came out of nowhere within about a half hour period.

Hi MIA thanks for your post again and brilliant. It is as the last ones you put out as well and thanks for the corrections. I think you made an interest in point about overblown Lows as well and that’s a classic example of why can’t they update the algorithms /systems with data that would then output are more realistic option . it will be great when we see the day when they can put in place, what you have suggested, and correct the software.

Completely agree with that post. GFS or any charts that Far out are going to be so difficult and near on impossible to create a forecast from that. It’s difficult at the best of times, even 10 days out let alone that far. Quite right, which unfortunately has become larger, stronger, more dominant and stagnant combine that with the shift north of the subtropical belt as well. ( someone posted the link not long ago to back this up about the shift Northwards)

Hundred percent agree with you Nick I think that’s exactly the case even in short time frames we’ve seen this a lot before.

Hi Malarkey, unfortunately they don’t at the moment. this is something I mentioned recently about due to the change in the weather we can’t rely on algorithms from whether patterns from the past as much because the weather now seems to behave in a different way and pressure. Pens have changed a lot with more stubborn high-pressure systems to our south and Southwest, and sometimes stubborn, low pressure systems, even as well, I’ve noticed but much has been controlled by high-pressure the Azores, high Iberian, high Bartlett high, and Euro slug there was a fantastic poster recently called midnight, ice age. He has a vast amount of experience with working in the industry, and he said the problem is that the software needs updating. Here was his post.. “You can have all the modern technology you want, you are trying to predict the future, that's simply impossible on a scale you're asking for I am afraid that we are now getting to the point that it is now the errors and assumptions in the software are causing the greater errors. Until you get those sorted out you will just magnify the errors, and end up with even more chaos. Spoken after 40 years in the software industry. MIA

Hi Andy , I can see your point. I don’t jump on anyone personally all I tried to do was when all this started to be flagged up as a possibility in the early days, I just said to air with caution. For some of the members that have been around long time like myself, we’ve seen it happen all too often before things get watered down longevity decreased. Then, as this was mentioned to be more of a certainty and nailed on because supposedly all of the ensembles showed this myself and others were just saying be cautious as it can all change as it was quite a long way out as this has happened, multiple times before. I certainly wouldn’t lambast you or anyone as to be honest, nobody knows and that is the fact the super computers don’t know half the time, especially as the weather is even more unpredictable now than ever. I just like to try and save this appointment for a lot of people as it’s horrible feeling when everything is pointing towards cold. Weather only need to be let down so I always try and air on the side of caution until much nearer the timeframe. They certainly nothing wrong with discussing for some people like to discuss stuff that’s so far out which is fine as create discussion and I guess what the threads for models discussion, but a lot of people including myself have the child within us of cold and snow excitement. I always just felt it was better to wait until it seems much more of a very high probability within a few days as opposed to a week away or 10 days and More where so much can change has has been proven so many times. nothing gets nailed on in my opinion, especially a week out, despite what all the ensembles would say, and then GFS came along to show either a breakdown or mild weather, more unsettled which seemed to pick up on that. unfortunately, it seems to me that the only thing that forecasters some super computers can nail on is wet and windy weather when we are zonal. winter weather is so fickle and difficult to protect as the weather literally can come from any of the four directions north south east or west, especially at this time of year, although rare from the east but can happen. that’s the issue with being an island next to a giant ocean.. so all I say to save disappointment is when weather charts start showing cold, 12 days out 10 days out just be cautious. Nothing is nailed on even at a week out.

Funny how they have said it’s going to get much colder from Sunday and yet today and this week has gone. Seems like it’s been much colder than what is coming

I do agree with you. It does to me look like zonal and possible dry are times of the Bartlett comes far enough up to influence otherwise it will be back to Wet n Windy not what we needs with Thames and many other rivers levels so very high due to recent high rainfall totals

You’re not the only one ,myself and many others have always expressed a little caution so far away. Just the nature of our location, and also the very fickle nature of the weather now more so than ever.

Echoed my thoughts, as when all the ensembles recently were pointing to cold prolonged period of weather, the GFS was the first one to start indicating a breakdown and getting earlier and earlier on in the period this has done the same thing on several occasions has been the first one to model or breakdown, and then the others start falling in line with it

Unfortunately, with the chance, this happens all too often again, it always gets water down and longevity shortened

Good luck to you all down on the south coast. You’ve had some good luck recently with snow, the other day, Salisbury, Downton and many other areas. looks like you could all get hit quite nicely again down there so good luck

Excellent post it seems this happens far too. Often the charts are just so unreliable that far out. Can’t even be an indication as they are so topsy-turvy even in shorter time frames of 5 to 6 days can be so inconsistent, let alone nine days or above completely agree with you.

Fantastic post highlighting improvements that can be made with modelling charts. Absolute pleasure reading your posts backed up by all that experience. Thank you for your input

Brilliant post, and thank you for confirming all your experience in the industry as that is gold to me and the fact you have acknowledged about the changes and also what needs to be done to prevent this happening so much i.e. software issue.

You are not wrong at all this is become a much more common feature on the pressure charts. I’ve discussed this recently and another couple of others. have also agreed and a couple of posters I’ve been really informative of putting links in with more detailed information and pattern changes that have occured with the subtropical area moving slightly further north, and also the increasing intensity and size in these high-pressure systems

Thank you Blast, finally found the MetOffice charts

Hi Blast, Can you post a link for me please to that graphical chart UKMOffice chart. Thanks

Hi Northwesr snow ; are these charts you posted from UKMO ( Ukmetoffice) ? if so can you post a link to these please. I asked recently someone kindly responded but gave me a link to fax charts from the metoffice. Can you give me a link please to the other charts ( the graphical ones you have posted from the metoffice- UKMO) thanks

Could you post a link for me please where i can view these met office charts. Thanks