[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Latest guidance calls for all snow, heavy at times combined with 25-45mph winds on Thursday for the entire Southeast (relevant warning issued about an hour ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-01&regionType=area ) and more of the same on Friday (relevant warning updated to expand Southeast a few minutes ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-02&regionType=area ) and the potentially more of the same on Saturday before milder air arrives (relevant warning issued a few minutes ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-03&regionType=area ).

Confidence:

Thu  -85%

Fri - 70%

Sat - 60%

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

New Warning just issued for Thursday!

Between 09:00 Thu 1st and 23:55 Thu 1st

There is potential for a spell of snow, which could become heavy in places, accompanied by strong winds, to move slowly north from Thursday morning onwards. Delays and cancellations to public transport are possible, as are delays to travel on roads; some stranding of vehicles and passengers could also occur. Some rural communities could become cut off. Interruptions to power supplies and mobile phone coverage are also possible.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A weather system is expected to move slowly north through Thursday, initially affecting the south east of the warning area before intensifying and pushing north across the rest of the warning area later on. As it comes into contact with the very cold air resident over the UK, it has potential to produce widespread snow, accompanied by strong to gale force winds. This warning has been updated to include earlier snowfall in the southeast, and to extend the area slightly further north. The confidence level has increased, whilst the impact level has been reduced - a separate, smaller area of higher impacts is catered for with an Amber warning.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

8.5cm in Singleton almost nothing between 11:30pm and 4:30am but coming down heavy now  

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

You made me freak the hell out earlier when you said it was over for ashford

Wrong you were ?

I said the opposite. I said winds are staying NE with showers moving SW while the convergence zone is being pushed further south than previously forecast.

Slight misunderstanding haha!!! ?

Instead of north Kent, estuary etc. all is going to be more SE.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Azores Hi said:

To be honest I wasn’t expecting much from this set up in Ashford, right on the SE side of the higher risk area and winds looked too Easterly for us out here further east.

However, wind direction is a bit more NE and showers seem to be lining up and I’m a bit more hopeful. Limited time offer though as winds are expected to veer more east then SE. Need to pile in those showers while we can, 0.5 Kentimeters in the last shower! 

Winds staying NE for about 12 hours so all good.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Wow! 1.5cm in 10 minutes!!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

Ok someone on here just said its not going to be snowing in their location - ashford

Is this true because i find this unbelievable

 

Need steve murr to give some clarity for expectations

 

Steveeeee!!!!!!!

Whoever said that has no idea.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Latest guidance is winds from the NE all night with bands moving SW, at times NNE moving SSW.

Convergence zone still happening but slowly being pushed south.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, A Wintry Mix said:

Why? is it because we are not going to get any lol

Because we are going to get hammered! Just got off the phone. Might well see a red later tonight for most of Kent over to Sussex.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

I saw it but for us (Singleton / Chart Fields) I expect that will scoot a little too far north don't you think?

Nope not according to MetDesk radar. We are in the bottom third of the band.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

For those who haven’t see what’s in the North Sea!!!!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

The warning for Friday has just been extended to cover almost all of us!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

of course some people are disappointed we finally have a true Siberian High and in 5 days the cold spell will be over

something has happened where low pressure from the S is able to push the dense cold air away enough to let milder air win out.

Don't know why,these Siberian highs are normally more resilient than that ,if you go through the archives,march 2013 is a prime example .

Very disappointed maybe the experts can work out why the Siberian high only lasted  days

But at no point did anyone say it will last beyond this weekend. MetO always said it could.

Don't forget the time of year - winter can't go on forever. 

Just enjoy what we've got and will have over the next few days. With a bit of luck Thu night/Fri morning will bring us snow and freezing rain which I don't believe anyone here has ever experienced. It's the most amazing thing albeit very dangerous and destructive if heavy rain.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Wow what is up with this negativity in here and more importantly how can there be people who say we have't got the snow that was forecast? Nothing until yesterday afternoon was ever forecast for today. And what we have had so far is exactly what the MetO put in their updated forecast and warning yesterday.

Are people not reading what the latest forecast says for tonight? What else can you ask for other than "prolonged, heave snow with significant accumulations" while it is -4 degrees or less outside?

I give up.

As for the weekend and beyond. I'm looking forward to potentially heavy snow on Thu night/Friday morning with a chance of freezing rain which is extremely rare in the UK. After that it's time for spring.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

I think the main reason for any negativity is how quickly the snow is melting, even in the shade. 

It isn't where there is a proper covering, it is where there are individual flakes visible which is no surprise as the sun is strong and the air is extremely dry. Won't be a problem after 5PM as the sun will be gone by then, just in time for the showers to become heavy and merge.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Lauren said:

That's so weird. MetO just saying light snow for me!

What are you looking at? Please ignore the symbols or the app. This setup does not lend itself for automated forecasts. Here's the text forecast:

 

 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

The negativity on here is baffling. We were never meant to get more than flurries until this evening. Yesterday the MetO issued an additional warning for 4am to 10:30am today for 1-2cm in places. Guess what, exactly what happened. The forecast now says heavy and persistent snow with significant accumulations tonight and tomorrow morning for Kent and Sussex. They have just uploaded their latest YouTube forecast which says exactly the same.

The cold itself is meant to peak on Wed/Thu with temps progressively dropping until then.

I really don't get the negativity.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Even good old AccuWeather app now says 6cm daytime and then 12cm with the convergence tonight.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

17 minutes ago, markdeacon said:

That looks like the "WeatherPro" app

It is. For some reason my post was blocked so PM'd instead.

The forecast is useless but radar is pretty good as it combines all European radars. It does have a big gap in the North Sea though so it cuts off behind the showers you can currently see - you need to switch to Sat images to see how packed the North Sea is. Snow shower galore!! 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

What on earth does it mean if one of my posts is pink and says "hidden"?

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, SF-02 said:

Melting here. Didnt expect that with low DP

Not melting. Evaporating. The air is bone dry.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

So much for the snow here - Gutted

Honestly!?! Look at the radar. It wasn't even meant to start properly until tonight.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

30 minutes ago, Storme said:

And this is why we have no snow.

Fear not - look at what's coming

That tiny shower at the red dot just covered my drive and road in 5 minutes. Slightly worrying as it means they haven't gritted and it's a steep hill!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Big Dave said:

Ashford Kent, TN23.  Snowshield successfully deployed.   Phew.  close call. 

 

Look at the radar mate. Heavy squalls incoming! It's all kicking off and it wasn't even meant to start properly until tonight.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Lots of flakes in Singleton, Ashford! ?