[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Just now, Speedbird said:

no it's not . . . you can switch between last 3 hours and predicted 3 hours

Yes and the link earlier was +24 hours, e.g. precip showing in orange.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

?? What ??

It's a radar, nothing to do with GFS long range or any kind of range . . . 

It’s the 24 hour prediction on that link mate. Live and three hours (+3 uur) based on live is white.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

I can confirm NW Essex has coverage.

Clouds rolling in here too (SE Kent).

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Speedbird said:

https://www.buienradar.nl/wereldwijd/europa/sneeuwradar < this actually looks a bit better, especially for the north of the region

That’s based on GFS at long range, not picking up most convection.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

14 minutes ago, clactongaz said:

Sit and hold tight...there is nothing on the radar or the dutch radar at the moment

 

Of course there is on the Dutch. See my post above but here it is again.

its the Buienradar app, zoomed out.

also added NW Germany radar.

 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Here comes the first lot. ETA approx 2am.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

And we are under AMBER for Tuesday ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Additional warning for snow just been issued valid from 4AM tonight to cover period until the already existing warning becomes effective.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

34 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just commenting on what the models are showing. A ESE,ly isn't a very good direction for the far SE due to the very short sea fetch. Even im hoping for a change in the flow from the model output towards a more E,ly with less of a S,ly element.

You’re looking at 500hpa lines. 750hpa is absolutely fine and that’s what counts.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

And now AccuWeather as well. All falling into place ?

3-6cm Monday daytime, locally higher amounts in heavier snow bands.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Even the good old weather Channel app has picked up on convective activity ? “potential for significant accumulation” on Tue - never read that on there before!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

MeteoGroup, very suspect company if you ask me. Where are they based, Germany, is it run by Germans or not? I have nothing agains Germans just think that its all very strange what the BBC have done dropping UK's very own Met Office, and we can see this reflected very clearly in the way that they carrying on right now. Its like the BBC are working for an Alien entity or something......

MeteoGroup started in the Netherlands and is now one of the top 5 weather providers in the world. It’s headquartered in London and owned by General Atlantic.

No idea what is going on at the BBC but Meteogroup’s own app “WeatherPro” is pretty much spot on and in line with models and MetO.

Their forecasts in other countries are fine. Watched Dutch RTL4 earlier.

Baffling!

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

My man at Network rail has told me it is officially 'panic stations'.

Amongst other things they have been testing emergency lighting, prepping snow chains and even checking that the depots have enough food in case people get stuck. 

They seem to think Monday afternoon looks likely to be the landing time for the first organised snow. 

Hearing the same form my social care clients - full emergency protocols being implemented now (before the weekend when less admin staff are in).

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

Wouldn't pay too much attention to that until things become clearer nearer the time, as not everywhere will see significant and disruptive snow - especially if it's from convective activity. Don't go booking days off work and cancelling plans just yet people ! 

Mate I’m not sure what your problem is. I said this morning that we will see extensive “lake effect” snow. You complained that the MetO forecast don’t mention it. I said they will from this afternoon, and now they do (I do have my sources).

Now you’re still moaning and doubt their forecast.

 

 

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Whoop! MetOffice officially stating "significant and disruptive snow" from Tue onwards.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, fluid dynamic said:

^^^ one for the ladies 

Nippy here in the breez. Also good to see the MetO forecast above really sticking their necks out with a forecast extending all the way to Tomorrow (sarcasm emoji here). Then saying it will get colder. 

The forecast ends with "risk of significant snow".

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

36 minutes ago, seb said:

Some apps (AccuWeather for once) are now starting to pick up shower activity for Mon-Wed but are still struggling.

AW is giving me 3.5 inches for that period from “occasional flurries”.

As I know the AW backend well, this discrepancy between amounts and descriptive text makes perfect sense to me but in general shows how badly automated apps cope with this kind of setup. It does the same by the way for lake effect snow in the US.

To add to this - this is now happening to all apps. MetO symbols have been showing the snow showers since this morning, then AW as per above, now the Weather Channel app is giving  snow showers from Mon late morning until Wed evening... (followed by a huge dumping from Thu evening (as per GFS)).

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

10 minutes ago, snowblind said:

I have looked at the text forecast and it is only mentioning scattered snow showers for Monday on the met office website. I am not worried about the computer generated app forecast but the text forecast is written by a forecaster presumably so that is my concern.

Extended outlook (as per above) which will be updated this PM in any event.

Apart from that - scattered showers is entirely correct. It will be showers from the North Sea. Those showers brought us endless snow in previous similar set ups.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Some apps (AccuWeather for once) are now starting to pick up shower activity for Mon-Wed but are still struggling.

AW is giving me 3.5 inches for that period from “occasional flurries”.

As I know the AW backend well, this discrepancy between amounts and descriptive text makes perfect sense to me but in general shows how badly automated apps cope with this kind of setup. It does the same by the way for lake effect snow in the US.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

Rule number one: Don't take out of context what the meto have said, they have said any snowfall will be extremely marginal. It is not a dead cert at all. As it stands there is no hard information showing any potent snowfalls for our region. The charts will change of course - but the most they can muster as of today is some patchy 2-3cm coverings in Norfolk/Suffolk and Essex. There you go.... 

Erm no they have not.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday (South East):

Becoming much colder into the weekend and beyond, with an increasing wind chill. Overnight frost becoming more severe, and an increasing risk of scattered snow showers on Monday.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

That's not marginal at all - it gives a wide range from showers to significant snow across the SE. Apart from that, I can promise you that the extended outlook (above is from yesterday afternoon) will read significantly more bullish later today.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, saint said:

An interesting post just now from the SW thread! 

He can't discount it as it is a very possible scenario.

As per my earlier post - the german weather service is calling for >50cm of "lake effect" snow coming off the Baltic Sea - water temps are 5-6 degrees lower than the North Sea so despite the uppers there being 2-3 degree colder compared to what will sit above us, the difference in temps here is still greater. So >50cm in NE Germany could easily translate to more here.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

Question - is it possible we would get this cold air for the whole of next week and see NO snow at all anywhere? Could it just be dry bitter cold? What makes you more experienced guys predict snow? Maybe be a dumb thing to ask but its Just popped into my head.

Nope. All of the east coast will see snow. It's impossible not snow. How much is a different question and depends on a number of factors.

Central Europe will stay dry and extremely cold but for once us being on an island surrounded by water will be an advantage. Same applies to north east Germany as per my earlier post.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

33 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

How about ipswich suffolk. Its frustrating the bbc weather shows dry and cold..random

 

31 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Have only had 30cms plus snow twice. Once in jan 1987, 30cms and Feb 1991, 34cms. I was in North East London burbs then. Now near Colchester so not sure if I am in a better position now or not. Deepest I've recorded here is 15cms in Feb 2012 and December 2010. If I manage over 15 this time I'll consider that a good effort.

Having said that I'll be lucky to get anything at all according to the latest met office forecast. Only showing cloud Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and only mentions scattered snow showers for Monday in the outlook. 

PLEASE stop looking at the apps. This is not a setup suited for automated apps. Stick to text forecasts. No model used for any of the apps is properly capable of picking up "lake effect" snow showers.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Borderline model related (sorry) but very much related to the amount of snow we can expect from showers (our own version of lake effect snow).

If you are worried about snow showers from the East... The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions for convective precip.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Just as an FYI for people who are worried about snow showers from the East. The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions!