[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

GFS isnt though

 

And it’s currently miles out with the location whereas HILRAM is pretty damn close.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Hilram is predicting 10-15cm from that low tomorrow morning for Kent??? 

Yeah was just going to say that!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

French low is significantly further north and east than forecast.

Northern extend into Paris which is 4 hours early. Easy already into SW Germany and Switzerland.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

what’s going on? New warning just been issued for us!?

low over France looks like coming straight at us on radar as well.

wind blowing from a different direction than forecast.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

26 minutes ago, dallas said:

Meto regional update not out yet, normally by now I think, maybe they are waiting on a few more models to update

It's out on the app. Website having technical difficulties. I posted earlier... nice upgrade for tomorrow and Friday.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 hour ago, Southender said:

Not sure what ARPEGE is smoking but it is going for 2-4cm across the region by tomorrow evening

In line with MetO guidance re snow pushing up from the SW tomorrow morning.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

Oh i thought it was but wind blowing so much wasnt sure. More coming ?

If the wind stays NE then yes, quite a few showers out there. Wasn't really meant to happen so radar watching... last there updates have the showers move SW. If that stays this way we should see some heavier ones in about an hour or so.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Nice upgrade on public forecast as well, in line with info from my mate as per post above.

 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Latest MetO guidance calling for snow from early tomorrow coming up from the south. Still some uncertainty re intensity but should continue all day. 70% of heavy snow in our region with warnings potentially being updated late this evening (main risk south and west of the region in a line up to Dartford, Medway and over to the coast).

Also potential for freezing rain possibly in time for rush hour Friday morning before turning to a mix of snow and sleet.

This again is from my friend who gets detailed products as part of his job. Last three days this has been spot on.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Flurries in Ashford.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, throwoff said:

For Kent they do not. We have a single snow warning now, look on the map, it has been pulled almost entirely out of Kent now.

Nope.

Warning for tomorrow covering half of the Southeast, Friday all of us (both for snow, tomorrow also for wind) and then Saturday one for ice. See screen grabs.

 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

18 minutes ago, throwoff said:

While I will keep a little hope the MET seem to have nailed this nearly spot on so far.

Warnings are in force for Friday, Thursday? Sat is now an ice warning.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Latest MetO video forecast shows showers across the region later. Let's see if the warning for today remains or gets updated removed later. 

Potential for tomorrow's heavy snow to move further east according to this forecast. Doesn't show Friday yet.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Winter wonderland in Ashford after last night’s heavy showers. 6cm in 2 hour on top of yesterday’s.

Car showing -12, local weather station (a bit more sheltered than I am) showing -11.6.

 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, k66yla said:

Just started again in Ashford. We had a big thaw earlier and I doubt we'll get a covering again like last night.

I have a feeling it it could be quite a bit more!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

11 minutes ago, Sarah Anne said:

Is hythe and ashford south west?

Its been a long day 

No. But be ready for the massive blob just about to hit Canterbury. Heavy snow from about 8:20 for us.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thank you! if I'm reading the top one correct then some showers ( the ones nearer the  Suffolk coast  might well make a cheeky right around Ipswich and drift slowly down towards  NW Kent with the other ones for you in  Ashford....

Yep if all goes to plan.

Never seen ice form so quickly! Sun was so strong this PM and drip, drip, drip. Sun went down and working 5 minutes icicles everywhere!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Lovely batch  of showers bubbling up - regarding to where they land I learnt some really interesting last night from @Steve Murr  who offered some 700p " Vent  " wind charts and last night forecasted that nothing would head more SSW instead of SW until  around 09:00am Tuesday, that was actually what happened and slightly against the Met office forecast as it was last night.

So thanks for that - and can anybody far wiser than me review the latest 700p profile ( steering winds I  think they might also be called ) for tonight and  Wednesday Early am that will give a pretty good idea on where the delights bubbling up now will land I think.

Indeed and look what those charts are showing right above us (as per my post above):

 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm not overly enthusiastic about tonights potential.

Winds are only really favourable between 11pm-3am before they shift to a South-Easterly and the shower potential dies. Perhaps 2-5cm in lucky spots but certainly can't see anything significant. Still, it'll be nice to top up what we have 

Yes but all High Res models are showing a very chunky convergence zone where NE and SE winds meet, right above us, between those hours. So while not as long lasting as last night and this morning, certainly the potential to be significantly stronger. Add to that the lower temps tonight and you've got great potential. 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, A Wintry Mix said:

This is forecast for 10pm on a app of mine,

Would be nice?

Thanet -0.3c

Exactly as forecast ? and Friday now looks like an all day frontal snow event!!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

Looks like Friday lunchtime. Earlier for more western parts

Quite a bit earlier on latest guidance - between 6-7am just in time for rush hour. Then continuous snow, turning heavy around 11am for about 2 hours, until early evening.

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

As I said this morning ukmo is going to have to revise there warnings especially for the south.

What are you talking about? Warnings for Thu and Fri were issued a few hours ago/extended to cover the whole of the south. All models are showing all snow on Thu and Fri before milder air arrives in the south.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Showers galore incoming from the North Sea moving SW/SSW ?

And Thu/Fri looking wild!

Perfect few days before it’s time for sling!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

New MetO video forecast just up - Blizzard conditions on Thu afternoon into Friday before the big melt!! 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

@Steve Murr @Nick F @Paul Sherman

You agree with what I've been told by my mate who gets detailed MetO updates due to his job? All forecasts I can find, regardless of text or app seem to support this. Haven't had a chance to look at models output myself.

 

Latest guidance calls for all snow, heavy at times combined with 25-45mph winds on Thursday for the entire Southeast (relevant warning issued about an hour ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-01&regionType=area ) and more of the same on Friday (relevant warning updated to expand Southeast a few minutes ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-02&regionType=area ) and the potentially more of the same on Saturday before milder air arrives (relevant warning issued a few minutes ago - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=se&date=2018-03-03&regionType=area ).

Confidence:

Thu  -85%

Fri - 70%

Sat - 60%