seb
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Posts posted by seb
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17 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:
isn't there a different equation to a mm of snow nd rain and not just like above. 6mm equates to 6 cm as it stands if I remember right as its 10 x the size of rain..... being nearly a metre if true lol
I't 1:10 for wet snow and 1:20 for dry so the latter for snow next week due to extremely low dew points. However, Metcheck for some weird reasons thinks it can do the calculation for its users ;-)
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22 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:
Sorry to disappoint but it shows about 102mm of snow in total...about 10cm.
The metcheck site shows snow accumulations in pink, and rain in blue.
You are indeed correct. Don't use Metcheck normally so not aware of this. Saying that - There are a lot of GFS precip charts for Wed/Thu that show totals close to 15 inches. Not that it matters - we know that apps and publicly available precip charts are useless.
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13 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:
Now confused, have seen some charts where there is very little snow and others where it comes out quite deep here, but obviously taking notice of what Steve Murr says, still going to supermarket on friday, and those of you following baby's progress, he is currently all toasty under his daddy with a full crop of milk.
Please, please ignore snow charts. The ones that are available to the public are rubbish and can't capture convective precipitation. What they are showing currently are several options of snow caused by troughs moving through but those are almost as difficult to capture on models as convective stuff. The models know they will move through but have no idea where.
There is one scenario which has been picked up by the GFS and that's a low very close to the UK - hence the insane snowfall totals as I posted from Metcheck earlier. But even that is, in the current setup, very unreliable and could disappear as quickly as it showed up this morning.
Steve's post and MetO extended text forecast as the best to give you an idea what to expect.
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Well if I were to take GFS precip forecast literally then I'd be under >1.20m of snow by Thursday evening. This is from Metcheck for Ashford which AFAIK uses GFS raw data.
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Why does anyone who has a different option or worries get shot down as a moaner or have patronising posts directed at them?
To give my point some credence, for example we had this on predicted Sunday at day 7... here's what's actually predicted now for the same day
And other models on the 18th showed what the GFS is showing now, whereas they have no sped up the arrival of the very cold air.
On balance there is no delay.
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2 minutes ago, karyo said:
No inaccurate info is posted. Yesterday the deep cold (sub -10) was coming Sunday and continuing uninterrupted for days. Now it is shown to come on Monday briefly before it gets moderated by the shortwave (so less last -10) and then the next pulse is coming Wednesday. So there is a delay and a discontinuity in the deep cold which is still many days away.
It wasn't ever shown across the board to come on Sunday. Overall consensus was always Sunday into Monday.
As for the shortwave - that's perfect as it means snow rather than just cold.
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This moaning is getting beyond ridiculous! These have been, are and remain the best charts we have seen in years. There is nothing marginal and there will be snow for large parts of the country for at least 3-4 days. There is also the risk of disruptive snow and we will stay below freezing for the period.
There is some model divergence towards the end of next week which is normal but considering the overall set up it is likely any mild air incursions will be delayed.
We live in the UK, not Canada, the northern US or Eastern Europe.
All models show the most severe cold spell in years so, really, enough with the negativity because of a few wobbles showing temps 3 degrees higher than other runs.
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2 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:
the charts were better yesterday, different this morning
By charts you mean computer generated forecasts I assume? Forget about them....
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Honestly can't understand any of the downbeat posts either here or in the MAD thread.
Nothing in the big picture has changed. It will be extremely cold from Monday morning onwards (always been shown like this); we will be under an Easterly flow with beefy showers continuously coming in from the North Sea. These are not and will not be picked up by any models that are accessible to the public, what the precip models are showing are areas of snow associated with troughs that may or may not happen.
Now for the period from Thu/Fri next week, models diverge. However, given the default behaviour in set ups like this it is more than likely that the cold will continue for a while.
And once again - forget any apps or computer generated day-by-day forecasts. Stick to MetO text forecasts.
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Also, all but one of ensembles don’t agree with the op run.
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3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
Its been downgraded for the whole country.. We ideally want colder uppers for this time of year.
It’s absolutely fine as it is. Really don’t understand the panic.
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1 minute ago, D.V.R said:
Shortwaves restricts the coldest uppers travelling west.. we knew it would happen
Only over the North.
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What backtrack? Where? Unless someone has access to more recent model runs than the ones publicly available and they show a backtrack, there is no backtrack. I can't remember the last time there was such x-model consensus.
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4 minutes ago, yamkin said:
MetO have been notified about Susan Powell's bizarre dry forecast. I'm sure they will contact the BBC and update her on the latest Big Freeze forecast for next week
No longer their job
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Just now, stainesbloke said:
It does look dry, initially at least. The Met Office are probably trying to work out the cold before they go on to assess snow risks.
MetO going with snow showers from Sunday onwards (rather than snow flurries as per yesterday) changing to "prolonged snow" from Tue then changing to "significant snow".
BBC using Meteogroup now.
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9 minutes ago, snowblind said:
See my post from earlier. They have max temps of 4 and 5 early next week for London. The met office has a Max of 2 there on Monday????
Yes, not impressed with the BBC Meteogroup forecasts so far. Most days they have been very wrong. Weirdly, their own Weather Pro app shows -2 to 1 for Monday and Tuesday. Even has the slightest hint of precipitation (<0.1mm) haha.
8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:Dry according to BBC weather
,btw I can’t find that update on their site still showing earlier forecast
Screenshot attached. Might be your cache?
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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Bbc online forecast next week biting winds frosts,but DRY
How on earth do they come to that conclusion,bitterly cold uppers crossing the relatively warm North Sea and all next week is going be dry.
Lets review that forecast in a weeks time ,because it’s frankly ridiculous
I’m going to tweet the forecaster ,Susan Powell how she comes to that conclusion .
1 minute ago, PLANET THANET said:bbc one weather just now (susan powell) said next week would be bitterly cold but DRY !!!
No one at this time can make this call. However, meteorologists know that based on the setup heave snow showers (prolonged at times) are likely along the entire East Coast. In addition there are several opportunities for snow pushing in from the south.
This is exactly what the text MetO update states.
I would not listen to BBC TV forecasts, radio forecasts (unless they simply read out the MetO text forecast) or more importantly the output of any app.
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Wow just wow... Latest MetO update:
UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:
Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:
At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March
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6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
it's started going pear shaped in the MOD thread
No it’s just jealous northerners who can’t deal with the South and East being in the bullseye for once!
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2 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:
Look to me like it’s going southwest and willl miss London altogether
The small area of precipitation over EA, Essex and Kent is moving south, the big one is also currently going straight south, however, everything to the northwest of that is moving southeast so we might well all be lucky from West London all the way over to Essex and Kent.
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Light snow in Ashford
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24 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:
Sorry a little random, but just wondering - have the BBC switched over to this Metogroup? Only for the first time ever (well it's the first time that I've noticed) the forecast for my area on the Met Office website doesn't match up with the BBC one, and it's normally exactly the same. Plus, they've switched over to new graphics etc as well, so just wondering
Yes, all TV forecasts switched at 1PM today; website and app should be Meteogroup but the roll out was staggered so some might still get MetO. On the website you can check if you scroll to the bottom.
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16 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
It’s more for Norfolk and Suffolk after reading the text with it
the further south warning is for ice
Yes it says ice will be more of a hazard but 1cm snow possible. Better than nothing... and better than what it looked like yesterday. I have a feeling we’ll see some surprises.
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,btw I can’t find that update on their site still showing earlier forecast
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Can't deal with the moaners in MAD any longer. How hard is it to understand that one model moving north a couple hundred miles while another moving south a couple hundred miles at the exact time simply means that there is some margin for movement around that general area.