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seb

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Posts posted by seb

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by seb

    14 minutes ago, throwoff said:

    I wouldn't be too disheartened by BBC and METO output. 

    METO normally doesn't go for snow until 24 hours out for Kent and the Beeb always follows shortly after.

    Let's see what the 12Z comes up with.

    Indeed. The MetO hourly forecast and the BBC hourly forecast (now using Meteogroup) don't use high res models for a few days out and streamers hardly ever show up on non-high res models.

    • Like 1

    Storm Georgina - Atlantic Storm 7

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by seb

    Fully agree with all of the above. We had gusts of 60mph in SE Kent, trees down, fences down, even Medway had tress down with some major roads blocked.

    Not sure I agree with the MetOffice being a company having lost a major contract though. It's still a government service, albeit with commercial targets. Severe Weather Warnings should be the main remit and twice in a week they have dropped the ball. This is even worse when considering that a number of private weather services did issue the correct warnings. 

    What makes me really angry is the TV and radio forecasts where you have either meteorologists or presenters stating that "it's going to be a windy day with gusts up to 70mph" as if it's nothing just because there is no MetO warning whereas the second there is a warning they act as if the end of the world is upon us.

    Storm Georgina - Atlantic Storm 7

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    I'm pretty sure the Met Office have just given up on the whole storm naming thing.

    Which is fine but the lack of warnings today and last week (in fact removing an existing warning just to issue another one AFTER the storm has arrived and already caused damage) is an entirely different kettle of fish. Not quite sure what is going on in Exeter.

    Storm Georgina - Atlantic Storm 7

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, DisruptiveGust said:

    Surprised the warnings aren’t more extensive given some of the predicated wind speeds from various model output. 50-60mph+ gusts are being suggested further south away from Scotland, could be very nasty as the front moves through. 

     

    2 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

    And during the peak Travel period 7 to 10am 

    It’s baffling! Especially after the booboo last week.

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Yes that’s the distinction between this and the last unnamed storm despite being less potent although not significantly so. What with a beefy squall line being modelled too - could be messy.

     Very messy indeed. To put it into perspective - last week’s top gusts in high population areas in Germany were 62mph and 8 people were killed, including two firefighters.

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by seb

    32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

     

    Fully agree with this assessment. Majority of models showing this. There better be MetO warnings by the end of the morning to avoid a repeat of last week. They did e-mail me about last week and all but admitted that they shouldn't have removed the warning from the SE. 

    Tomorrow's storm is going to hit the region in time for morning rush hour and will go on until mid afternoon with gusts around 60mph across the majority of the region. Not something to be sniffed at during daytime.

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Not sure, high RES is still toying with the idea of making the wind field larger.. 

    GFS still has more of a tighter wind field. 

    Quite a squeeze over Scotland some damaging wind gusts up there in excess of 90mph

    5a663033d30c5_airpressure(2).thumb.png.78409e63e1a7af9855d48abf60947ac5.png

     

    I don’t know. I’m ignoring a lot of models but AROME and the DWD one yet again show >65mph for several hours. Also, Kachelman Wetter and AccuWeather state locally damaging gusts between 6am and 3pm >65mph. Both were spot on last week.

    MetO going for 50mph max.

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by seb

    It's the update text that makes the odd choice obvious - "This is an update to the warning, shrinking the yellow area and also the validity period.Gusts of 50-60 mph are likely quite widely. There is some uncertainty over the peak gusts, but there is a small chance of winds reaching 70 mph in places - most likely across coastal north Wales and northwest England during the middle part of the night and then across parts of Lincolnshire and East Anglia early on Thursday morning."

    Very odd considering AROME, ARPERGE, ICON and the Germans are showing exactly those speeds across most of England, higher along Channel coasts and even higher in EA early morning.

    • Like 1

    SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    The area from Medway over West Malling & Kings Hill down to Sevenoaks/Tonbridge has been under the torrential rain conveyor belt since noon. Drove from West Malling to Snodland earlier and roads that usually have a little bit of flooding are flooded in a way that I have not seen before.

    What a difference to yesterday when we had sunshine while Ashford was being flooded... today it's been pretty much dry there!

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by seb

    4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    South Downs doing its thing with Surface winds creating convergence for Storms - A few earlier impacted the Maidstone area before drifting ENE out into the Estuary expect a few more to develop in roughly the same area and again following the same track

    Yep towers keep building very quickly, some thunder and then they quite quickly move ENE. Then repeat. Every now and then we get a minute of big fat rain drops. It feels tropical :) almost like Central Florida.

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