feb1991blizzard
-
Posts
17,276 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
20
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by feb1991blizzard
-
-
-
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
I wouldn’t expect much impact until mid March at the earliest.
Would agree but early thoughts from me is it could still pack a punch when it does, a lot of cold air could be bottled up & ready to go.
-
3
-
-
Question is can we get something potent enough to deliver? like this.
check out some of the March / April charts from the 50s, most of them better than the Jan / Feb combos from the 1ties and 20's of this century.
-
2
-
-
plus look at this for a reversal.
big reversal filtering down
-
3
-
1
-
-
GFS 12z FI is a stonker, a penetrating N'ly wind and snow showers East coast with a widespread severe frost well inland.
-
6
-
-
-
More importantly than big though it must be sustained, you don't want the vortex lower down in the Atmosphere and high up trying to relocate to opposite sides of the pole at the same time, that's asking for trouble and nearly always ends in disaster, spli would be better but no sign of that.
EPS not bad in FI.
-
3
-
1
-
-
Big reversal possible in March.
-
5
-
-
You have - slight concern is it might be perfect synoptics firing blanks, unless GFS 6z 384 verifies, would be a treat.
-
2
-
-
Love the optimism Dennis - love your posts, however, no evaporative cooling with those windspeeds, trough running into a past week of high temps.
-
2
-
-
A cracking storm on the 6z
-
3
-
-
-
I would prefer a more conventional spilt, pacific to Atlantic - eg - Jan 09 & Feb 18
-
3
-
-
I can see a big neg nao happening final third March - totally strat related. got a feeling it will be a warm Easterly though.
-
1
-
-
looks a very weak unfavourable .MJO signal
-
1
-
-
The 850 windflow chart don't look special to me, don't you need a thicker band of continual Westerlies nearer to 180 degrees?
-
1
-
-
-
3 SSW's in one season and hardly any snow anyone??
-
3
-
1
-
-
Yes - noticed that, i have a feeling of very very strong blocking regime late March, i might do a post later if i can find all the charts i need, unfortunately though because the transition is likely mid March or after, most on here will hope my forecast goes as well as the rest of mine this winter.
-
6
-
1
-
-
Actually quite a nice displacement SSW showing.
-
2
-
-
Thought so - i was hoping against hope though that it would be the reverse of what usually happens when the models lead us up the path but the Met stay resolutely mild then the models implode in about 3 suites, doesn't seem to happen the other way though.
-
1
-
-
How about -12c uppers with a deep wrap around low.
-
7
-
-
Whether or not a technical SSW is now irrelevant, they aren't going significant negative for any length of time and its a (unfavourable) displacement not a split.
-
1
-
-
Cant understand why they've kept wording of 16-30, there is absolutely nothing to suggest Easterlies for that timeframe, Northerly toppler at a push but more likely NW flow, SSW or not (possibly unfavourable displacement now but remains to be seen), you would see more evidence by now of an E'ly for late Feb / Early march, definitely not out the question by mid March.
-
1
-
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Pinhead27
Its the stratospheric 10mb height chart, whilst it isn't a far and wide split its the EPS mean at 360 hours so you wouldn't expect that, that does look indicative of a big westerly zonal wind drop off in a few weeks time, possibly a big & sustained reversal to Easterlies, though that is yet to be decided, if so it still has to propagate the boundary layer into the troposphere (also to be confirmed), if both of those occurred, it *COULD* lead to a prolonged spell of well below average temperatures.