feb1991blizzard
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Posts posted by feb1991blizzard
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Must admit i haven't been following the strat as much as i usually do, i have believed there are enough other favouribles to override / repel, anyway, regardless of strat, EC46 still going as expected, solidifying the potent sustained cold spell, defined euro troughing now to add to persistent high lat blocking.
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Do not panic, 10th earliest cold to arrive - GFS out to 9th, more importantly, ensembles only just started.
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I think its been a very exciting start to the day, plenty of activity below the -5c line on eps, also an MJO chart into 8 - excellent @Dennis - albeit low amplitude.
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EPS - no alarms imo - expected direction of travel.
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This is a slow burner (or hopefully the opposite), anyone expecting to see deep cold verify at D10 is going to be disappointed, that said any such synoptics (Greenland high favourite) does have a very wide spread in terms of onset date, anywhere between 10th to 25th Feb, that's assuming such a scenario verifies at all of course.
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MJO dying a death in 7.
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looks to me like getting a shift on into phase 8 would do the trick, huge blocking potential there.
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Was that a thinly veiled 'we could be in business final third of Feb'?
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It hasn't come into range yet, we need the MJO that little bit further (7/8) ish, anyone expecting E'ly's to pop out of nowhere in modelling were always likely to be wide of the mark, - very earliest 10th feb for start of transition, very latest 25th.
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You'll be lucky to see it though.
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Very Interesting GEFS.
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Yes, some flatlining eps members today close to -10c, all building up to something very cold late feb, possibly record breaking cold.
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Yes, no way this is write off territory, there are times in the past when i've said this by this date, 2011 off the top of my head, but no way yet this year, albeit very disappointing.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The way the output is (including 46), we could be looking at record breaking mild early feb, average to cool mid feb, record breaking cold end feb.