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feb1991blizzard

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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard

  1. feb1991blizzard
    They have a have a much higher skill score than than the tropospheric and surface charts although don't have any figures to hand, they are pretty accurate within the sub 200 range where as you cant even say that about the H500 charts at T100 sometimes, 300+ is pushing it although even then, you very rarely if ever, go from a significant warming event high up in the strat to nothing at all on the next run, its much smaller changes usually. EDIT : some seriously hot temperatures on the 18z GFS, off the scale almost. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121218&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384 IF the trend continues we should see a reversal at 1mb within a few days. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121218&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384 Better downwelling as well, on both the op and the parallel.
  2. feb1991blizzard
    Even Saturdays showers are rain/sleet now, I don't know why anyone even bothers with these NW winds, apart from 18th Dec 2010, they have all been rain / slush fests, I would always take an easterly all day, maximum risk for maximum reward.
  3. feb1991blizzard
    I like that ECM ens mean chart, a) its stretched, b) its the mean of 51 members at 360 hours and c) its not all that long after the warming at the very top of the strat is due to start.
  4. feb1991blizzard
    Im starting to have doubts about this warming now. I was always hopeful that as long as the warming at 1mb continued it would eventually propagate, however, even that seems to be running out of steam just as its about to dislodge the vortex and will need reinforcement. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121118&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=348 If we compare the10mb chart with the warming in 12-13, the warming then was much stronger. This is what we needed to be seeing surely? Forgive me if im wrong as ive only had a few years of watching these charts compared to Ed's 15 and maybe it wont need as bigger warming because the Vortex (strat and trop) was weak going into the winter?, im starting to have grave doubts about this, is there any chance we might get a wave 2 event following up in January?, Isnt a split SSW with a huge ridge over Greenland is the easiest way to a favourable, reliable and more predictable trop pattern?
  5. feb1991blizzard
    I still had a covering last winter, about half an inch maybe, the hills a couple of Inches.
  6. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, I looked at the warnings today and the earlier BBC charts and thought there was a discrepancy, Met warning even had warnings for right out west, once the 12z Euro4 came out, I haven't really bought into anything decent, I am even surprised to see people getting snow at 700ft to be honest, just rain here, apart from a few showers tomorrow morning and Saturday, I cant see anything, although whatever does fall on Sat will be snow to low levels, unfortunately, getting any decent intensity or longevity of precipitation will be a problem.
  7. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, I think we may be pushing it for a lot of snow over xmas, a really cold spell looks more likely in the new year than over xmas though in my opinion.
  8. feb1991blizzard
    Reasonable but by no means certain, there is a very good chance that somewhere will see those snow totals but areas can change, see the Met office updated warning tomorrow lunch time to see if the threat is still there.
  9. feb1991blizzard
    I saw a flicker out the corner of my eye and thought it might be then the rumble came, there was a long gap in between hence it wasn't very loud as it was far away.
  10. feb1991blizzard
    THUNDER.
  11. feb1991blizzard
    So some members going for a technical SSW around 288 then, that's if ive read the chart right. EDIT : Idiot me, I checked that over and over again thinking that it would be way earlier than expected and the one thing I didn't look at was the numbers, just checked the colours thinking white was 0 m/s zonal wind speed!!!
  12. feb1991blizzard
    I know, im just saying that you cant always expect the 30mb chart to be as progressive as right up top, it may take a little while to propagate, I can see the concerns but the real concern will be if the 1mb chart starts downgrading or waning, at present it seems to be progressing nicely, there are always going to be upgrades and downgrades at this sort of range, even in the Stratosphere.
  13. feb1991blizzard
    Warming coming into a nearer timeframe at the top though, propagation will take its time, its not going to be an instant response, remember, the lower down, the more variability from run to run will occur. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014120818&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384
  14. feb1991blizzard
    That's what the BBC gave me for tomorrow morning a few hours back but it changed on the next run. And it was for 3 hours running as well!! now its light snow.
  15. feb1991blizzard
    I disagree, we had a downgrade yesterday 0z but a slight recovery on the 6z, then we have had upgrades, don't forget this warming was at 384 on Friday, the start of it is now around 336 - 350 hours, im not sure what exactly you expected to see by now, im looking at the top of the stratosphere.
  16. feb1991blizzard
    No different to what the Guardian do by saying global temps will be 5c higher on average in 80 years time.
  17. feb1991blizzard
    How did you manage to do that????, Brilliant, both are the same but from different perspective I take it.
  18. feb1991blizzard
    Evaporative cooling bringing snow down to low levels.
  19. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, Genius is the word I would use.
  20. feb1991blizzard
    Incidentally I did a few composite analogues and was playing around just picking a few out based on QBO, solar cycle, ENSO, PDO, etc, nothing very scientific, a month or 2 back and Mine came out as a change before xmas, I was going to build into a forecast but my computer completely went and I lost everything on it, also the composite charts I post always disappear after a couple of Days anyway, I think we would be lucky to get a really strong block to the North now though before xmas, what is certainly not out of the question though is a cold December via Northerly topplers and cold frosty nights and possibly a very cold end.
  21. feb1991blizzard
    I got caught in Manchester in that Thunderstorm, Hail settled in city centre on grass.
  22. feb1991blizzard
    quite right, he went for a mild first half of winter and cold to come later than most on here, and I doubt he would be having second thoughts on the strength of 2 cfs runs.
  23. feb1991blizzard
    The people panicking saying its going to be above average in deep FI are right, it is going to be about 40c above average over the other side of the globe about 130000 feet up!!!
  24. feb1991blizzard
    What is this about the EC32 being a stonker, can anyone confirm?
  25. feb1991blizzard
    Remarkable consistency on the next 8 days from the GFS, I don't think I have ever seen 2 GFS consecutive runs so close for so long a timescale before.
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