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feb1991blizzard

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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard

  1. feb1991blizzard
    OH dear.
  2. feb1991blizzard
    Still cant get any agreement with parallel.
  3. feb1991blizzard
    What about 30mb?, also did the temp profile look like it might cause a split further up top in time?
  4. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, I think it aids propagation from what I have read. I have noticed there can be a big discrepancy although I haven't done any verification analysis so didn't know if it was better or worse, It doesn't bode well for when the parallel becomes the op then, if it isn't an improvement on a vital part of the Atmosphere and one where its usually easier to model, that will surely have a knock on detrimental effect on tropospheric Northern latitude blocking scenarios that are not particularly well modelled as it is! I think the 18z OP had a better ridge but good to get some consistency, the parallel wasn't actually a long way off a proper split at one point in the run at 30mb, it just strengthened the vortex again afterwards instead of splitting them
  5. feb1991blizzard
    Lets hope we see a bigger wedge of high heights splitting the segments even further apart on future runs. EP Flux forecast chart starting to look more favourable as well.
  6. feb1991blizzard
    It doesn't look quite a reversal to me, quite a split though. Where can I find those please, is it Weatherbell by any chance?
  7. feb1991blizzard
    Cheers, although decent I thought it might have shown signs of a split although knew it was a long shot.
  8. feb1991blizzard
    A start would be to find out what the % chance of snow on average is within 11 days of any stated date in any average stratospheric conditions over the period of 1978-2005.
  9. feb1991blizzard
    Here is an example of a decent warming, I don't think even this was a technical SSW though, if I can remember rightly. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=10&ech=6&heure=0&jour=20&mois=1&annee=2012&archive=1&carte=1 EDIT : Of course it must be said though that we were up against a really rampant PV that year.
  10. feb1991blizzard
    The warmings are underway and yes any possible SSW has been delayed at the very least, The problem with these charts is we cant seem to get a string of these runs, I would be much more confident if we could, certainly infinitely more confident than Surface / Troposphere charts verifying at those stupid ranges.
  11. feb1991blizzard
    Reasonable displacement on the GFS 18z. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014122218&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384 However, this is the most interesting chart from the parallel, would like to see the height charts for this.
  12. feb1991blizzard
    Not a million miles away from a reversal right up top on the 6z, an impressive warming it looks to me. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014122106&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384
  13. feb1991blizzard
    If you would have asked this question not so long ago then I would have been going VERY low, I just hope that by 31st Dec i have changed my mind again back to significant cold, we will wait and see.
  14. feb1991blizzard
    An uptick in forecast wave 2 activity at day 10, doesn't have the look of anything definitive but perhaps worth watching maybe.
  15. feb1991blizzard
    The problem so far is that the wave 1 warmings have been pushing the vortex back towards Greenland and the polar regions lately in the top - mid strat, which could be just in time to scupper the favourable FI H500 charts or at least render any blocking over Greenland transitory in nature, I quite like the weakening of the Strat vortex on the 18z although I am sceptical as its just one run and deep FI, it does result in a split at 10mb though. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121618&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121618&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384 But the best chart is a lovely 30mb chart, best depicted by the Netweather charts as they show heights and temps together.
  16. feb1991blizzard
    Do we not need the arrows on the bottom chart to be going from left to right denoting poleward EP flux, or at least reducing in size meaning a less strong equatorward flux?, forgive me if ive read the charts wrong. I remember this issue coming up in late Jan 2012, is this the reason the warming at the top is as strong as ever on the GFS but isn't propagating very well, I remember brickfielder saying the best propagations occur with favourable EP flux.
  17. feb1991blizzard
    Striking changes on the GEFS 18z suiteand not for the better either so far. EDIT : Im going to be wrong here, its now looking like an upgrade!!!!!
  18. feb1991blizzard
    Maybe we could get some trop lead via a combination of an Eastern Pacific ridge and an Atlantic ridge up towards Greenland in a couple of weeks?
  19. feb1991blizzard
    The best warming yet at the top of the stratosphere showing on the 18z GFS. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121418&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384 Vortex becoming stretched and showing signs of a split down to 30mb. Good agreement with the parallel run as well.
  20. feb1991blizzard
    The warming in terms of temperature actually starts to wane a little at T240 on the ECM compared to T216 and is far less extensive and about 10c at least lower than the corresponding chart from the GFS 0z run today. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121400&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=228
  21. feb1991blizzard
    I hate to say it but if the strat charts don't start improving soon (particularly but not exclusively referring to the parallel GFS run), then we can forget about anything until late January.
  22. feb1991blizzard
    I tell you what James Madden, if your watching, we will get together an army of subscribers on here, club together and all chip in 10 or 20 quid each and pay you a lump sum of thousands of pounds in total - in early January, provided one thing, that that chart actually verifies!!!!
  23. feb1991blizzard
    There is a stonking mean Atlantic ridge on the 6z GEFS.
  24. feb1991blizzard
    He does also state this though in the interests of balance. Longer-term prospects for the AO continue to hinge on the state of the stratospheric polar vortex. Vertical wave propagation is extremely weak currently, which has allowed the stratospheric polar vortex to intensify and remain positioned close to the pole - a pattern most common with a positive AO. The models continue to predict low pressure to dominate the Barents-Kara sea/Northwest Eurasia region. As long as low pressure persists in this region this will likely inhibit more active wave driving and the stratospheric polar vortex will remain strong. Still other tropospheric factors such as the retrogression of the Gulf of Alaska low favor a negative trend in the tropospheric AO after week one.
  25. feb1991blizzard
    But will a more Left leaning newspaper get the same animosity towards it as the express does on here?
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