feb1991blizzard

I bet if I went to the pub I would see snow though, only a 2 mile walk but its nearly double my altitude. the mountains will be getting a pasting.

I like frontal snow but when its crossing from East to West!!!! Easterlies are still the best, these slushfests don't really float my boat, I want the big one now. Yes, its all down to intensity though.

Rain.

Surely you need to compare the 12 noon NAE prediction with the 12 noon radar, else your not comparing like for like.

Yes, a very good chance

I know but I honestly don't think marginality is any bigger issue for you than anyone further North, of course its an issue but its an issue for most of us, parts of the Midlands on Earlier forecasts were still going to get snow at a lot less Altitude than you, your not talking GFS here, marginality is properly calculated into these mesoscale models, always take the GFS PPN type charts with a pinch of salt as they have a known bias towards snow PPN type. Yes, I agree with this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpFL7H_TTAU

Yes, that's why I say some areas North of me could actually do better than me, it sounds a silly statement but I am right on the Lancs / Yorks border and thus places like Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds are further North but the key is that they are also further East, although i still think anyone South of the Snake Pass will struggle to get a really decent fall to be honest. CAVEAT : that's up until 6am Saturday, after that who knows?

How would it?, you would get battered, as long as the PPN intensity was there (which it would be), 600 ft Sheffield would get even more.

FWIW I can see Bradford getting something (more than me) but later Saturday afternoon, not when the BBC map graphic shows it.

No change on BBC but she still stressed uncertainty.

Apologies for being wrong if this verifies but the caveat is, I don't know how recent it was made.

They have to go for it sometime so that's why Nina said they don't have much confidence on earlier forecasts, she's on again in 6 minutes so we get another look.

Agreed but the NMM has slowly corrected southwards, we could still get something and what I would say is that the NAE used to over do the snow on the PPN type charts, the Euro4 is a better model overall but tends to under do but we could do with a hefty Northwards shift on the 18z. Could it be the UKV?

Yes but that could be because they haven't changed them yet, Normally they change by the 6.25 BBC forecast but could be different because its xmas, don't forget we only get 2 BBC website updates a day now wheras we used to have 4, BBC budget probably much lower these days, even when they don't expect a significant change, the graphics usually update to something slightly different as no 2 runs are ever going to be exactly the same, I would say a bit of snow possible but earlier it was looking like a really significant fall possible.

SB that forecast is out of date, that forecast by Phil Avery was based on Earlier runs, the graphic is still similar on Nina Ridge's forecast but I would expect the graphic to change based on the 12z runs and change again accordingly around 1am I would have thought based on the 18z's. looking further south to me now.

Yes merry xmas.

Yes although Judah Cohen does site week 3 for a change for Central North America and does say it may be a while after that that Europe gets cold so I read week 4, I know this is a big call but I think a return to zonality during the first half of Jan is now unavoidable, that split strat vortex will reform but still be vulnerable, I am not saying that the tropospheric GFS FI charts will verify with that massive rampant PV over Greenland by any stretch but Cohen does state he expects a return to slightly +NAO conditions. Paragraph below courtesy of Aer.com - Authors Judah Cohen and Jason Furtado. Recent and Very Near Term Conditions The AO is currently positive, as it has been for most of the past two weeks. The GFS ensemble-mean forecast shows that the AO should reverse becoming slightly negative by the weekend, a sign of increasing high latitude blocking (Figure 1). The result will be a continuation of the warm temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere continents in the very near term followed by a general cooling trend across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents. The one exception will be East Asia, where a persistent deep trough entrenched across the region has kept temperatures below normal throughout the month. Across North America, a strong ridge along the East coast will keep temperatures very mild for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Cooler temperatures will spread across much of Europe in the near term as the NAO turns negative, even if only briefly.

Much more erratic now though, BBC tend to do this, they over estimate the snow area but then shows a slight breaking up nearer the time, it does show it reaching Bradford though.

Yes but they had the warning much further North yesterday, see your point though, the previous run was even worse for us up North, the BBC just said you were right on the Northern extent, be interesting to see whether their graphic will update in the next hour with the latest data, Phil Avery said to stay tuned so uncertainty, Fergieweather said he cant discount areas even further South East than Gloucestershire being brought into the firing line though.

Merry Xmas the South West Midlands and as far North as Birmingham perhaps.

I think that will correct south with time.

Yes, I did see the GFS 0z run shortly after it come out but just looked at the ECM now, looking at the 10mb profile I did expect the wave 2 charts to show an increase, the EP flux prediction looks just about as poleward as ive ever seen. The problem is that by now you would expect to see much more blocking in the extended ensembles.