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feb1991blizzard

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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard

  1. feb1991blizzard
    It was an absolute stonker here, about 2 thirds of the month had either lying or falling snow culminating in an almighty blizzard the second last weekend.
  2. feb1991blizzard
    1994 a very underrated potent beast in my opinion, I would love to know exactly what that Tuesday delivered for the Pennines after it delivered 5 inches for Birmingham. The one where a NW to SE frontal alignment moved up from the South West.
  3. feb1991blizzard
    Is there any way of telling this, the Mountain Torque charts don't seem to have a predictive element on them, and they are always corrupted as well. Meanwhile the Ensemble mean is slightly stronger than the 12z suite, although it looks like the op is a bit of a strat outlier, Bias Corrected GEFS awaited with interest. The upshot of the 18z FWIW is that we have a forecast reversal at the very top and a borderline one (wouldn't want to call whether its an actual one) right down to between 5-7mb
  4. feb1991blizzard
    Another occasion when the GFS models a strong warming in FI, mutes it to something far less strong and then brings it back at the corresponding timeframe a few days later.
  5. feb1991blizzard
    Depends on the Nuances though, a slight deviation with a Westerly component but not one with enough of one to mix out cold uppers might just do the trick.
  6. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, I only do well out of North Westerlies in the upcoming setup as the wishbone effect does for me with Northerlies, I still prefer Easterlies overall though to be honest or even lee North Easterlies can be stonking for here.
  7. feb1991blizzard
    Its looking reasonably good I would say for people who normally do less well for snow, places like Liverpool and Preston and the Cumbrian Coast have a reasonable chance of seeing some snow next weekend, Its almost certain we will get a Northerly but its longjevity and potency that's in question and the nuances like troughs cropping up plus slight variations and timing re wind direction and uppers, all which are crucial in these type of setups, definitely a cold weekend, but cold and dry with sharp frost, cold and showery but just the wrong side of marginal at the time of precipitation or cold with heavy convective snow showers? An interesting weeks modelling coming up for the North West.
  8. feb1991blizzard
    Wave 2 upwelling????? i'm confused but all the same cautiously optimistic, particularly after Ians post in the MOD thread. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2015012212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=372
  9. feb1991blizzard
    Yes been belting down here but its turning a bit sleety now.
  10. feb1991blizzard
    You must have some altitude, how much has fallen?, any big drifts?, thinking of going high up to investigate later.
  11. feb1991blizzard
    BELTING DOWN STILL. :yahoo:
  12. feb1991blizzard
    March 2013 - Other notables, 1995, 1987 April 1981 _ " 2012 May 1996
  13. feb1991blizzard
    Fairly heavy now but its about to end (for the time being at least).
  14. feb1991blizzard
    Yes in late Nov 2010 a great big tractor went up and down all night as 6 inches fell in about 2 and a half hours, I think it was because the previous winter farms were cut off for weeks and weeks on end and got no help from the council so they were determined it wasn't going to happen again - SPOILSPORT!!!
  15. feb1991blizzard
    There is a serious low height anomaly showing over Europe on the 6z GEFS mean.
  16. feb1991blizzard
    Thanks Snowking for the reply. Ian Fergusson has posted in the model thread and UKMO don't see any high latitude blocking in the next month although they stop short of ruling out an SSW in the next month as they only talk about the medium range. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82300-model-output-discussion-16th-jan-12z-onwards-smile-while-you-post/page-52#entry3131230 Meanwhile the GFS 18z strat charts still look reasonable for some cold zonality I would suggest.
  17. feb1991blizzard
    What I have noticed is this displacement happens more or less before the significant warming starts, factoring this in, are you surprised about how its downwells quite quickly in to the mid to lower strat? and is there a danger that the warming could actually push the vortex back into an unfavourable position? EDIT : it will be interesting to see if there is any kind of signal in EC32 clusters tonight, one would hope so.
  18. feb1991blizzard
    Of course what you see now on the forecasts compared to the radar tomorrow will be very different as well, of course its only a guide and probably the reason its different is because of uncertainty.
  19. feb1991blizzard
    Darren Betts forecast (latest of the press this forecast) is a stonker but have they seen the EURO 4 latest, usually the graphic is off that model, got a feeling the forecasts will change and downgrad the next time they are updated. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 This is as far East as anything gets on the EURO 4.
  20. feb1991blizzard
    GEFS 18z bias corrected mean is even more aggressive than the GEFS mean. I wonder if its because its reacting to the signal to kick the MJO back out of the COD into phase 6.
  21. feb1991blizzard
    A warming has been showing for a few days now and I was waiting to see how it pans out and let others decipher, however, that strength of warming warranted at least a mention seen how it actually starts a lot earlier than 384, also it has now been backed up on 2 subsequent runs and their ensemble suites, each slightly upgrading the warming from the previous run. EDIT : Perhaps this will be the other half of the SSW chiono!
  22. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, coldest night for 2 years.
  23. feb1991blizzard
    I didn't hear no drip, finished snowing about midnight and straight into clear skies and frozen, winter wonderland now, tree branches still white.
  24. feb1991blizzard
    It has been forecast on the GFS for a few days now but I have refrained from commenting on it too much as there have been times when warmings have been forecast at this range and then the charts change after a few runs, this run though shows a much more aggressive warming, i have been thinking for a few days now that there might be more comment on it and was going to leave it to the experts to decipher what will happen troposherically but to me the fact that it downwells pretty quickly into the mid strat without too much variation wrt vortex location, it doesn't take a genius to work out that if it does verify and downwells into the trop, we would be looking some potent cold spells in a few weeks time.
  25. feb1991blizzard
    Plus although the GEFS mean isn't quite as aggressive with the warming (you wouldn't expect it to be at that range), it is on the same lines wrt placement of the vortex. Or rather displacement should I say!
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