feb1991blizzard

Did you see how many members did this?, I actually think this is our only route to a mid month cold spell, given the Stratosphere and MJO composites. It is backed up by the ECM 240 mean to a certain extent.

Problem is though it has some snow for places really far West, that in itself suggests to me It cant be reliable.

Just going on how the pressure pattern is likely to turn out, I can see this panning out like February 1993, I would prefer 1994 of course. EDIT : Well I would prefer 1991 of course but that would take some backtrack.

Yes, plus Paul people look only at uppers sometimes but all the great South East cold spells with big convective Easterlies had low heights, if you only have shallow heights you will end up with light flurries / scattered showers more often than not, all the great events had one thing in common, close to 520dam heights or even below, the surface pressure was around average in most cases and even above in some. Although having said that, the above variables are linked of course, I really like this table which was posted by Sebastian I think in the model thread, I had it before but my computer broke.

Wouldn't take much correction to get some serious convection going in Kent and Sussex.

3c please.

I agree, I don't do an index and must also bare in mind that I have lived in 3 different locations since I left the West Midlands in the naugties, but apart from last one, all since the 09-10 winter have delivered much more snow than the dire ones of 98 to 08.

Jan 1987 - Kent.

I don't know why anyone would ever want temps above freezing in any season TBH, anyway back to tonight, it looks like bed tonight as opposed to bed-lam last night, looking at models again now for the sign of the next belting.

The 18z GEFS suite last night had a massive flip almost on mass towards a scandi high but thought it might be an outlier suite, particularly wrt your post regarding EC32 and GLOSEA5 and general update, plus the GFS strat warmings being downgraded lately (vortex returning more towards pole) made me think Feb might end up being of little note (cold and snow wise), however, maybe there is hope yet.

All snow Stoke Eastwards.

Buxton definitely the best place in my opinion, some higher parts of here are nearly on a par, my location is a safe bet if you just want to see snow guaranteed at any point during a given winter, if you want to guarantee an absolute belting like 8 or 10 inches, you do need that extra 400ft to get you over the 1000ft mark.

Was here not so long ago but its stopped.

Bugar all again now, a decent covering though, probably 2 inches in total.

Stonking GEFS for NW England, to be honest I will just take these with a pinch of salt as the majority are Easterlies, yet the ECM ens post day 11 for London are mildish, they would be much colder than they are for London if they agreed with these GEFS as London would almost intuitively have exceptionally cold uppers in an Easterly if North West England had very cold ones! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=236.4399871826172&y=39.47999954223633

Definitely heavier anyway.

Yes that chart if it was an OP run or a 120 mean chart then you would think whats the relevance in the North West thread as that's dry, but there must be some really frigid members in that suite for our neck.

Yes it just has!!!

Off topic I know but WOW!, what a change on the GEFS 18z, look at this for a mean 216 chart. PLUS ITS BELTING DOWN NOW!!!! :yahoo:

Still only light snow.

I don't think that band will hit as that's on the E flank of the polar low, however, to be fair, this band now could hover and deliver 1-2 hours of very heavy snow looking at the models, we need a bit of luck, only a few flakes here, I am right on the very very East just before Saddleworth moor so its marginal I terms of PPN for me, obviously with my location I have every chance of whatever falls being snow.

Light snow now.

Bugar all here.

Play this back, its just sliding down. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/gcw8dkf8n#?zoom=6&locId=354028&lon=-4.00&lat=53.55&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1422528300

Gutted - its just going to miss me by about 5 miles.