feb1991blizzard

Even though the wind direction favours the region it just magically passes large parts by and just hits the East!!!

Yes, I remember about 5 inches down in the midlands on the first Thursday night in March but there were wintry showers right up until the last third of March in that spell, that was a shocking winter in general for me but at least I got something decent - better late than never.

Not sure evaporative cooling will come into play as there will be too much wind but point taken that the PPN intensity will work in our favour, there will definitely be blizzard conditions somewhere in our region at some point and these are the kind of synoptics that if the heavy snow showers organise the streams over one particular area at the right time of day, there could be chaos on the roads and the warning could become amber.

Blimey!, I thought that because there are higher parts on the East, that they might have had a slightly watered down version of what the Peak district got, I had a pretty decent winter that year, a ridiculous number of falling snow days, a good few significant Accumulations culminating in an almighty blizzard in late March.

Not even Jan / Feb or March 2013?

Here is the Met office Map forecast. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcw2hzs1u#?zoom=9&map=SignificantWeather&lon=-2.25&lat=53.48&fcTime=1422392400 It has been changing every run, upgrading one run then downgrading next, now im not saying its right but there must be some doubt wrt marginality, FWiW I think you will get some rather spectacular heavy snow showers and most people will, There will be some significant accumulations in some parts of the region but there may be some sleety stuff as well as the mild sector shows its hand, don't forget though the cold is likely to stay a week now so further chances and less marginal at the weekend I would suggest, although probably less in the way of PPN then, some disturbances in the flow could bring some organised bands of heavy snow further into the cold spell but that's all conjecture and to far out to speculate on at this stage.

Yes although the composition of the flake and / or the ratio of rain drops to snow flakes can make all the difference when you already have a covering wrt preserving it, specifically when the band is nearly exhausted and clear skies and a frosty night is forthcoming. Although my last post was in jest just a word of warning, I doubt this is going to be an all snow event here in the Pennines at 600ft, so people on the coast need to be realistic with expectations.

Could be even worse yet, you might get rain!

Yes its a case of wires crossed, I didn't know whether it had happened or not but certainly knew it would be pushing the boundaries as to what is actually possible and impossible.

The start of the next warming doesn't look as pronounced on the ECM, if the GFS was to verify, I would suggest hunt for the next cold spell (possibly more potent) would be already well underway before this upcoming one has ended, it looks like the GLOSEA5 isn't really seeing any SSW potential or indeed any HLB given MO 30day updated has reverted to type, I agree we could be looking at a cold March but a negative CET is a big call!!

Blimey, that was a proper -10c uppers spell as well with temps in cities below freezing, that certainly wasn't one of those watered down crap spells by any stretch.

I was in Salford in 09 and got really light drizzly sleet for 18 hours while people 5-10 miles East had up to a foot of lying snow so cant comment on flake sizes on that one, I remember the 2010 (same location as now) Nov 30th I think or around that time, huge flakes, massive PPN rates for 2 or 3 hours and 6 inches on the ground,

You are just talking about the Wed / Thurs event though surely, anything the weekend up until nearly the middle of the week after falling from the sky will be snow although admittedly will be harder to come by as the direct Northerly will provide the wishbone effect.

You can!, just buy the Daily Express!!!!, Only joking, we want it to be a forecast that actually verifies of course. Yes, to be honest though, despite it being an Easterly, the real heavy snow (around 7-10pm on Thursday the 7th) was when an occluded front moved East to West and it brought massive flakes, I don't buy into this thing that Easterlies don't bring big flakes and its always more powdery.

I think its the UKMO to be honest, they pay for the Met Office full dataset so I doubt they would use a much inferior one, although I can see why people might think this TBH, many a time I see even the Met Office map follow GFS runs, its just a quirk though I think.

Yes, the second best ever in my lifetime (Midlands then), nearly a foot in about 6 hours, It was parents evening I think so we were going home early anyway but it was cancelled with only 1 inch on the ground, I had being telling everyone at school all week we were going to get marmalised and no one believed me, they all laughed until it happened of course, very rare in them days for people to be proactive wrt forecasts as opposed to being reactive when it was too late, this I guess was just to big an event and to severe a forecast to ignore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc49oYbAIr4

Blimey!! I certainly don't think the prognosis is worthy of being the first headline on Talksport hourly news update, not just yet anyway.

Yes and given the Met Office wording, I would be very cautious about a very low CET, going on output / background signals I would say very cold, however, for the MO to change their wording, I would suggest the GLOSEA5 is now less bullish about blocking, It cant be the ECM32 that's downgraded as there hasn't been a run since Ian's last update on Friday.

Don't want to jinx it but if the current output (trop and strat) continues for the next 6 days, I could be making my lowest guess for a monthly CET ever. I think sub zero is a bit far fetched but it might not be a million miles away.

That 22nd March was my best ever fall in a second half of March ever, and in a whole March I can only remember 1995 and 1987 topping it, even though I could have obliterated those two by walking about 1.5 miles to see 6ft drifts.

Seems a different story each run but always with a severely weakened vortex.

Guaranteed colder weather but whether its cold enough for snow and whether snow will fall to any great extent in any specific area wont be known for a while yet.

Not sure where that is, ive only been here 4 years, that's 660ft so on reasonably high ground compared to the average in England but pretty low compared to other areas around you, that road where the Hartshead Inn is is over 1000ft.

First things first when your looking for snow, you need to know your altitude, Mossley is very rugged in terrain, its highest point is very high, over 1000ft, yet some parts are only around 500 or 600ft.

Nov 2010, Feb 1991, Feb 2009, I was only here for the 2010 one but there is 3 examples where an Easterly / ENE'rly has absolutely battered this place.