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feb1991blizzard

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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard

  1. feb1991blizzard
    Has anyone got that link to the GEFS stratosphere temperatures please?
  2. feb1991blizzard
    Changed again now, the chance of the strat having an impact now receding fast me thinks.
  3. feb1991blizzard
    Right, with you now, they are also a subscription though aren't they?, there is no other way free of charge than Berlin is there?
  4. feb1991blizzard
    But you can hazard a guess from the charts you can see and have been kindly updating us with surely.
  5. feb1991blizzard
    I think those charts are only available on the ECMWF website for subscribers to the ECMWF dataset.
  6. feb1991blizzard
    To think a couple of weeks ago I was contemplating something not a million miles away from freezing but im afraid. 5.3 please.
  7. feb1991blizzard
    The vortex is totally destroyed at 1mb most the way through the second half of the 18z but its even struggling to propagate down to 3mb (for any longjevity before it reforms anyway) let alone the mid strat, its clear now that the split in the reliable timeframe isn't alone going to affect the troposphere significantly enough to cause HLB to develop else we would be seeing evidence in the output by now so no question that further reinforcements are required, whether from below or above or both.
  8. feb1991blizzard
    But what are we supposed to do? not discuss any Met Office forecasts, they wont show us the GLOSE5 or EC32 so this is the only way we get to see what their thoughts are on the long range.
  9. feb1991blizzard
    The wording is more positive John.
  10. feb1991blizzard
    Yes - no criticism of them on that score, the reason I highlighted the bit I did was because that's a small but significant change in their wording from their overnight update, it now says 'there are signs of" as opposed to a "small chance of", and I bolded the word possible because this means that the anti-cyclonic element is also in doubt so maybe they think we could get something better than that.
  11. feb1991blizzard
    UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 27 Jan 2015: The most likely scenario is for the unsettled, and at times windy, conditions affecting the UK during the first full week of January to then persist through much or all of this period. This scenario would see periods of dull weather with rain interspersed by colder, clearer showery spells with frosty nights and leave western parts with the wettest weather and southeastern Britain seeing the best of any dry weather. At the end of the month there are signs of a colder, possibly more settled, spell of weather developing, but confidence on this is low at present. Updated at: 1446 on Mon 29 Dec 2014. HOUSTON WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!
  12. feb1991blizzard
    Looks like its already started! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014122906&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=300
  13. feb1991blizzard
    Point taken but the best 30mb chart is already modelled within 144! The vortex has reformed by 240. all be it weakly. Yes the 1mb chart is very good towards the end on the ECM op as I pointed out yesterday but on the GFS we only have to go a little further and the vortex is starting to reform - consistently showing, if you have access to the the ECM ens and are telling me that that big wedge of heights remains in situ at 1mb right towards the end of the run or at least has a cluster which does then I take back what I say. plus the EP flux chart isn't looking as promising as it did a few days back.
  14. feb1991blizzard
    They haven't looked too bad to me at day 10, the really deep FI ones have been poor, the 2013 Jan warming I thought was modelled extremely well even at day 16, with a little exaggeration from the GFS and a little run to run variance of course but the H500 and surface charts have been diabolical the last couple of weeks even as early as day 6, lets hope they are diabolical again and a HLB will appear out of nowhere, I cant see it though.
  15. feb1991blizzard
    Statistically they are a lot more likely to verify.
  16. feb1991blizzard
    I think we need to hope that the Vortex is still vulnerable by the time any further warming occurs, I really cant see this one having any significant effect on the trop now, the vortex in the mid strat is likely to reform too quickly from what I can see, we surely would be seeing at least a hint of blocking by now in the extended ensembles, especially the ECM ones, I notice Exeter have changed their wording in the 30 dayer regarding a pattern change, they have emphasised a small chance, not sure whether they are suggesting a mid latitude block possible or cautiously wording something more significant.
  17. feb1991blizzard
    Warming seems slightly more pronounced on ECM than GFS, there looks a much bigger wedge of heights in between the daughter vortices, especially right up top.
  18. feb1991blizzard
    I have been think along the lines of as long as we can keep the 1hpa warming going then there always would be a chance further down the line of an SSW, I have been concentrating on the top more than any other area, Unfortunately it wanes from now on into the foreseeable though.
  19. feb1991blizzard
    A word of caution on that, I cant see an SSW forecast anywhere, this is close(ish). Plus I remember a BBC forecaster 2 years ago (I cant remember who) actually admitting that they didn't know that much about SSW's and that they were only just beginning to get to grips and that they remain under study, this is in no way intending as a criticism of any Met forecaster but I would hazard a guess that Dr Cohen (who most on this thread seem to reference), is more qualified than anyone on this subject, the good news is that he still thinks we will get one at a later stage. Beaten to it by quite a few - thought I might!
  20. feb1991blizzard
    Yes, miles better than I thought, I got under an inch but at least it settled on all surfaces, I bet the moors got 10cm at least, will see tomorrow, it belted it down for about 4 hours but because of the wet surfaces / wet snow, it didn't start accumulating for ages.
  21. feb1991blizzard
    Still snowing here, settled on main roads as well now, about an inch, slip road onto M62 J22 closed for a while.
  22. feb1991blizzard
    Belting down here and sticking, we are going to run out of precipitation in a couple of hours time so I cant see a big dumping.
  23. feb1991blizzard
    Sleety snow now with some big flakes but it needs to bulk up, Manchester would be too marginal but the reason we have reports of big flakes there is because the heavy PPN has reached, it just seems to be dying as it gets any further East, if this low would have tracked 50 miles further North, we would have had a belting here.
  24. feb1991blizzard
    That's only about 400ft altitude isn't it?, its just turned a tiny bit sleety here but only a tiny bit.
  25. feb1991blizzard
    To be fair I would take anything that gives me a proper event, 6 years ago I would have give my right arm for a couple of inches of snow, the bar has been raised to 80s standard where between about early 80s to 88, the least I had was a 6 inch fall every year without fail, anyway even if places like yours and Liverpool miss out on the Intitial undercut and then the convection, something from the SW has to come up against the block eventually so you get a good few go's at snow!
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