Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

feb1991blizzard

Members.
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,276

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    20

 Content Type 

Everything posted by feb1991blizzard

  1. feb1991blizzard
    ^^ This spell was never going to cut it, might be a good FI coming up though. better PV profile than 12z and that ended fairly well - baby steps. No severe cold pool to East YET - baby steps like I said though. Battlegrounds possible.
  2. feb1991blizzard
  3. feb1991blizzard
    Cold arriving earlier than first thought up here perhaps.
  4. feb1991blizzard
    That's the key though, massively increased probability, of course though SSW's in a W QBO are more likely with higher solar activity, plus the mid 80s had a succession of cracking winters, 1995-96 was probably the most blocked winter in my lifetime, ok Ive experienced snowier winters but blocking wise it was awesome, the second UK record coldest temperature occurred during this winter.
  5. feb1991blizzard
    I actually think if we had been right in a solar minimum this winter would have delivered big style, -QBO, EL NINO (albeit weak with nina like atmospheric conditions), the acid test will be around or just before the turn of the decade, the next minimum is likely to be even weaker than the last and we all know what happened at the end of the last decade.
  6. feb1991blizzard
    The final rights are about to be written, these are the dictionary definition of a dartboard, just about as bad as it gets. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2015021506&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2015021506&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2015021506&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384
  7. feb1991blizzard
    Not sure there have been NUMEROUS splits to be honest and whatever has happened has had the expected influence on the troposphere In my opinion, the brief split did bring a brief split of the trop vortex and the displacement has brought the most recent arctic outbreak (if you can call it that), If I had just come back from MARS and you had shown me the stratospheric output for the winter, I don't thing It would have screamed serious HLB to me. This is an example of a proper split.
  8. feb1991blizzard
    When all the dust has settled on this winter, I wonder whether we will look back and think it was worse than this sinking south of the PV? To my untrained eye (I don't really study world weather to any extent apart from a teleconnective POV as to what happens in the UK) but this 1985 event looked worse, if not in terms of actual temps but surely in relation to how far South and West the potent cold got and thus the places it affected that are not used to such cold.
  9. feb1991blizzard
    I prefer Coke.
  10. feb1991blizzard
    Split starting to occur on the ECM in the mid strat although without much of a warming.
  11. feb1991blizzard
    The Vortex either over the pole or Greenland right the way out to 384 right the way from the top of the strat to the trop, this winter has been bo||ox. see you all next year, unless a really freak event happens in late March or April like 2013 or 1981.
  12. feb1991blizzard
    I just want a belting, I don't care what season it happens in now, I also want constantly well below average temperatures all the year around.
  13. feb1991blizzard
    And look at some Feb / Early March's of the 1950s!!!. The only problem is though, it looks like the Strat vortex just doesn't want to play ball.
  14. feb1991blizzard
    Yes 87 and 91 the bench mark, I lived in the West Midlands and they were my best ever and by some distance, I hated school and was desperate to get time off, that's how I got into weather forecasting, I used to watch the countryfile every sunday, the fact that I had nearly 2 weeks off school meant I knew it was something special, but because every year in the early - mid 80s, I had seen at least a 6 inch fall, I still didn't know quite the magnitude of what was unfolding, I think the fact that I witnessed 2 falls in the space of 4 years nearly / over a foot in level snow, made me think it was unusual but not extreme as my mom and dad always talked about 63 and 47, now obviously I haven't even come close since Feb 1991 so that's 24 years and counting, that does really make me think they were very very special.
  15. feb1991blizzard
    Yes ive seen the Francis Wilson, he was always so vague, 'ones down there and there and kent' LOL 'and by Friday deep snow causing chaos I would imagine'
  16. feb1991blizzard
    Cheers, yes I have seen that, the 2 ones I want are the Country file on the sunday (1987 Jan) with John Kettley and the Countryfile on the sunday with Ian Mccaskil in Feb 1991, ive seen his wed 6th 1991 forecast also on youtube.
  17. feb1991blizzard
    I don't suppose you have any videos of TV forecasts lurking around of 1987?
  18. feb1991blizzard
    Its freezing rain, its unusual but you can have rain with -8c uppers.
  19. feb1991blizzard
    I would hardly call it a warming anyway to be honest.
  20. feb1991blizzard
    Wait up in London, it should be with you within and hour or so, it might not necessarily hit everywhere though, Good Luck.
  21. feb1991blizzard
    I think the difference between Salford and here is massive wrt Easterlies, I was in Salford in 09 for quite a potent Easterly and got Jack, ive had some feeble Easterlies here since and still got a decent covering, its only 12 miles difference but a world of difference in terms of weather.
  22. feb1991blizzard
    I would rather an Easterly if it were a proper Easterly but I cant see it happening until at least the End Feb Early March so rather have a successful NW erly than a failed E'ly.
  23. feb1991blizzard
    A very very brief and basic tutorial on Arctic / polar blasts, im sure you got a lot of of snow on 17th Dec 210, here are the charts in the lead up to that, notice how far up into the Arctic the High heights (bright yellows) got. And ultimately displaced really frigid cold air south, this was the chart that got the NW coast of England absolutely blasted. Compare that to the feeble effort we have just had.
  24. feb1991blizzard
    Will we get enough amplification upstream though to avoid it being a slushfest and end up a potent blast?, I tend to favour this route though (although it goes against all my principles) because even if it fails its better than having a failed Easterly with a high sat over us and wasting 2 weeks then sinking (this might not waste as much time), plus this route ties in with the strat more although im not liking the strat forecasts at all in FI.
  25. feb1991blizzard
    Crap again im afraid.
×
×
  • Create New...