feb1991blizzard

Youve run out of changes because you keep changing your name and then Backtracking!

Well time flys these days so it will soon be upon us and i was wondering about peoples views on whether we could have a 4th consecutive colder than average winter or this hot summer we are going to have will put pay to that by disturbing the recent patterns. Well at least we could have a neutral ENSO signal so thats good news and at this moment i would say slightly colder than average (you have to go with the form horse) although that will change many times. Question is could it be an absolute stonker though like 1947 that brings the country to a standstill.

Are they the firm the Daily Express go to in winter when they want to put up a 'coldest winter since the existence of earth' type headline.

Is it coming down really thick and an absolute corker. That looks like good fun.

The rain would just wash it away. When you have a fag and get some ash on you it just disappears doesnt it.

Knowing my luck we will have a rubbish winter though.

Lets hope we get a northerly to blow some of this ash down and give us 5 or 6 inches of it on the ground. That would be the next best thing to snow and at least it would be something interesting. It would also be less dense than snow thus more suseptable to blowing around so we could get some nice big drifts over the pennines.

Great post Jack. So it looks like its not as nailed on to get a hot summer as i thought and a cold showery atlantic LP dominated summer is still possible. Mind you i hope any remnants of the la nina are gone by the winter to increase our chances of a sustained negative AO and NAO.

Looks like youre having a bit of a stonker up there then. At least its interesting weather anyway.

I never knew we had a drought that lasted that long. Just shows you learn something new everyday. I do remember some hot dry weather in the july of that summer.

I do remember it. You have to say that chart really is a stonker for June. Cold fans like me just have no right whatsoever to expect charts like that in June.

Although i do enjoy severe weather i would just like to say we must spare a thought for the people killed or injured in the severe weather event of the recent past. I love to see feet of snow piling up in winter but i dont wish anybody to freeze to death, the same with storms and high winds.

Stopped here now and the wind has died down but it was fun while it lasted.

To be honest if those are not exceptions to the rule and lack of sunshine really does bother you that much then to be honest i would think about moving. I am not being flippant and it does sound drastic and i know people have commitments but only you know how much you and particularly conor123 who seems to post quite regularly about it, are affected by it.

Really heavy rain here now.. If we could have 6 or 7 hours of rainfall like it is now here, i think the canal could easily burst its banks and flood the High street. No kidding its really heavy. Pools of water starting to form in the roads now but the band will be through soon though.

The radar is a stonker. we are about to cop it big time. Just imagine if that band was snow in winter how appealing it would be though.

A lovely strong wind getting up here now. At last we have got some interesting weather instead of all that boring sun in April. Im Just waiting for the rain to get a bit heavier then im going on a 4.5 mile walk to get some shopping.

I am not dissing Dan Corbett but to me Rob McElwee was the last of the giants to go, and in many ways was the transitional weatherman from your old school forecasters Micheal Fish, Ian Mccaskill and John Kettley in that at the time he was young and wore modern clothes but still had that aura about him in the sense that you knew by the terminology that he used that he loved meteorology, thats not to say that the current BBC team dont as from what i am lead to belive, they have all studied meteorology to degree standard, however you could be forgiven for thinking nowadays that some of them are just presenting the weather because of their good looks and white teeth and are just reading off a script.

Heavy showers with some hail mixed in and i can see what i think is a cumulonimbus but i cant see because it goes behind the trees At least some weather that actually does something anyway.

I will be waiting untill the last possible moment before posting my prediction but as it stands at the moment i would be going several degrees higher than average.

Thanks.

Just wondered if someone could post a description of what Angular momentum is and how it affects our weather patterns.

You know the only reason we get access to the full dataset on the GFS dont you, its because NCEP are obliged to release it to the general public otherwise they will lose any funding by the American government

As you quite rightly point out they are a government run organisation, i dont know whether they are fully funded by the tax payer but another thing that annoys me is their reluctance for the general public to have access to much of their model output and also their over sensitivity to people posting their forecasts on forums like this. As for how they arrived at their seasonal forecasts, i would imagine they did use scientific methods, but as you quite rightly point out, people would be more forgiving of wrong forecasts if they didnt just close ranks so much and gave more info in the forecast and in their appraisal.

I dont wish to bash the met office too much because i still belive generally they do great job, however it was not just the BBQ summer failure, there was in my opinion a more schoolboy error in their final seasonal forecast before they ditched it (i dont know whether this was the final straw and they ditched it as a result), but the winter forecast 2009-2010 was done on a % basis, i cant remeber what exactly they said at the start but it was odds on a milder than average winter but in their monthly appraisal of the initail forecast they didnt change it that much, and baring in mind this was at the end of december 2009 when we had already had a cold start and all the model output, other outlets and even their own monthly forecast was hinting at severe cold for at the very least the first 2 weeks of January, it would have taken a monumental spell of double figures max temps in feb if it was going to end up a milder than average winter, and as we all know it didnt and was pretty cold right the way through though the snow was less frequent and heavy and more localised than in Jan.