feb1991blizzard

1 followed by 4 and 6 for me. Although i hate the opressive heat of the plumes there is the consolation of possible storms which at least makes it interesting. 6 would be my favourite pattern.

Yes, if there was lightening you would expect there to be rain somewhere and all the rain is gone now according to MO radar and forecasts.

What i would also add is that the average temps at the North pole are still close to 0c in summer.

That chart has updated since i posted, the darker blues were there when i posted, at least the -8 to -10 shade and although only over a very small area the MSLP was about 1008 or less in the same areas.

Told my mate in South London that my forecast of potential severe thunderstorms was rubbish and they wouldnt materialise about 2 and a half hours ago, anyone think ive acted too soon?

The beer goes down beautifully in this weather though, you can drink very strong Alcohol very quickly giving you an instant buzz.

This flat is like an oven already, i hate hot but there is only one day of it left and then nothing on the models to scare me in the reliable after that, saying that though its only since ive had health problems that ive hated heat, i used to be willing the thermomter up when i was younger, Aug 1990 a classic example, and humidity didnt bother me either.

But if you had a thermometer out there and it said 33c then it was 33c as long as the thermometer was calibrated properly, the fact that the thermometer wasnt an official Met Office thermometer makes no difference, yes it wont go down in the records as your back garden isnt an official weather station but if its 33c then its 33c in my book.

I will swap with you mate. 28c today, far too warm.

Nick F has issued a warning for potential storms for today, if the GFS is anything to go by then monday and tuesday look worse though. Some very negative lifted values and some high CAPE.

Yes, ive never seen a run that brought the 850hpa temps -25c in to britain, cant even recall a stray ensemble getting into this territory although someone is bound to tell me that its happened. Even when the ground temps were stupidly low in dec, the uppers were warmer than the ground temps.

Although i am no expert it looks to me that snow would definately be fallin somewhere with that chart as there are patches of darker blue indicating -10 uppers and coupled with this chart (which is only 2 hours difference) the Sea level pressure values look to be favourable for PPN to develop, -10 uppers would almost certainly deliver snow.

30c would definately be reached with ECM verification but i would also add that it would still be long odds on that 30c would be recorded somewhere in London with GFS 18z SLP and 850hpa chart verification, i know that it only says 28c max for the SE on monday but the GFS under cooking temps coupled with the fact that there are so many weather stations around now its the law of probability that the 30c barrier would be broken, its not even up for debate IMO, saying that if the 18z GFS verifyed in its entirety, not only would it be a short lived hot spell but the first week of July would be cool and showery as well.

I totally disagree with this, a cold snowy easterly beyond 5 days is the hardest weather to forecast and by some distance IMO.

If there are any anti SE posts on here as a result of envy of high temps then they certainly are not from me although i am envious that they bare the brunt of the classic scandi high / N france low combinations ala 87 and 91!

I dont know whether i am right with this definition but in my book the whole country does not have to have very warm or hot temps but the area that is predicted to have a heatwave IMO needs to be a long way above average for a considerable amount of time. EG for london to have a heatwave i would say a week of above 30c maxs and 17c Mins, maybe 27c and 14c for the North.

Just wondered if anyone knows whether there has ever been snow in England in July or August and how often it happens and what the lowest ever recorded temperature in those months is?

I Dont get this forecast at all on monday for london. How can you possibly have over 1500 j/kg of CAPE, a lifted index value of -5 and a storm risk of 0%!!! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;page=4;type=storm;ct=18354~City of London;sess=#forecast

GFS 18z even brings the 0c isotherm over NW Britain again although because of the range its probably odds against to verify.

Those were the latest ones available at the time. Thats like saying the 12z GFS is out of date because the 18z hasnt yet come out. Anyway anyway the longjevity of any hot spell is likely to be downgraded not upgraded on the 18z FAX.

The fax charts are updated 4 times a day, that is the most up to date one although the 18z one should be out shortly and presumably takes into consideration the 12z ECM and UKMO.

Not really Alex, the 12z Fax is showing the cold front passing through on monday, now that doesnt mean that there will be a significant cool down for the SE on monday but it could well do by tuesday, it will be interesting to see the latest FAX when it comes out at half 10.

Looks like the high 20s on sunday are going to be reserved for the south east. The fax chart for sunday shows the 564dam line further south than the GFS 18z op, so sure as hell the ECM 12z op evolution aint going to happen.

Oh well, it looks like my nice little run is coming to an end, still its nice to experience nearly the whole of june without any threat of getting sunburn, really unusual since the sun is at its strongest but i suppose its not going to be very strong when its stuck behind clouds!. The ECM last few runs have had me really worried but its an outlier, surely it will be just hot, not record breakingly hot.

Stunning news although i am very sceptical, as indeed i am about man made climate change, what i would like to here from more knowledgable people is would be be more prone to severe winters if this happened and on what timescale could it happen, and has it already started given the last few cool summers and cold winters?