feb1991blizzard

I would hazard a guess although i stand corrected that its the same logic applied to surface pressure charts, i am 600ft above sea level so the pressure level would be lower where i live than suggested on the charts because they are not really surface pressure charts they are sea level pressure charts and they show what the pressure would be if there was no mountain range and we were on a plain. I would guess the same logic applies to the upper 850 temp charts, it is what the temp would be at the 850hpa level if there was no mountain or ice block.

Temperatures really cold for Greenland. Surely thats cold for this time of year even on the ice sheet.

Thanks. This is what i was looking for and according to these discussions the smart money is on a neutral enso signal into 2012. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

An alarming trend towards a la nina winter is being projected on the CFS. I know a weak la nina would be okay but 2 months ago it was looking neutral, i wouldnt panic in July but i just think the closer the models are to neutral as we enter autumn, the more margin for error we have. Does anyone have the link for the NOAA discussions on La Nina, i cant seem to find them. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino12SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino3SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino4SSTMon.gif

I agree. I didnt want to say anything as obviously John Holmes is a qualified and very experienced meteorologist so he knows a heck of a lot more than a novice like me but the point is from what i could see all three models 12z output showed a Northerly for the majority of the run and quite a potent one at that. I also disagree with Stephens post above and i think any heat will not arrive untill the 27th at least, will be very shortlived and probably not extend further North than the midlands.

Just shows how poor i am on world geography. I didnt know that kilimanjaro was slap bang on the equator nor did i know it was nearly 20000 feet high, so it was a bit of a stupid question from me really and not only does it have snow on the tops it probably does all the year round!

All models tonight suggest a cold Northerly prevailing almost throughout the runs, if the models are being anywhere near accurate then surely it could be one of the coldest Julys on Record.

No definately not, nor with the last few winters. I have really loved the weather over the last 3 or 4 years, back to the true traditional british weather of the mid 80s and memories i will never forget. The only disappointment from my point of view was the end of last winter.

The main thing to note about those charts is that not only is there high hights to the west and North west but its the deep shades of orange and even red showing very strong blocking which could be very hard to shift.

I dont wish to get carried away at this stage but there is a striking similarity with the last 3 years, Northern blocking very prevalent in summer and winter and with the seasonal Heights forecasts, ENSO forecasts and early media winter forecasts it is not a bad starting position.

It was always going to as the 12z FI was an outlier and with the ECM op and mean keeping the Azores high in the Azores and low pressure over us right the way through your looking at the last week of july for any chance of a pattern change and thats only going to happen if the models start progging it fairly soon and with ensemble support, that said i wouldnt be suprised to see the south get some fairly hot weather the last week of July with the Azores high just ridging NE enough.

My heating bill only rises by £10 in winter from £20 a month to £30, maybe £35 if i dont economise mind you the heating system really isnt adequate in here but fortunately i dont mind the cold so it doesnt bother me and in my last flat the bill was only £2 more a month in winter than in summer and that was the 2009 / 2010 winter which was the more severe one IMO because although the deep cold started later there was not what you would call a long spell of mild weather until march, that said i paid for that in the summer because i swear it must of been 40c in that block during the summer so i know what i would rather have although i appreciate that people who live in a house with a family would be greatly affected by differences in the severity of cold from one winter to the next.

Where do you get those archives from please and are they available from all forecasts and can you get and PPN chars or snow depth carts from the 80s and 90s.

Reversing the question to a certain extent, does any snow fall near the equator line??? and if so at what time of year, presumably only at very high altitudes one would think.

Good evening. It looks as though a number of records are going to be broken over the coming week the first which could go over the next 12 hours or so, namely the atmospheric pressure record for oslo which could break 1070mb which is the beginning of what is likely to be the most severe spell of winter weather ever recoreded in the UK and indeed other parts of Europe too. So for this evening then (sunday night) there is already some very heavy snow showers been blown across the pennines as the 950mb low pressure area squeezes up from the south giving severe gales or storm force winds with gusts in excess of 80mph giving drifts of up to 6 feet deep causing roads to close and villages to be cut off. Min temp -5 in the south minus 15 to minus 25 in the North with a windchill factor that goes way off any scale we have here at the met office, in a word please do not leave your home, if you do you are in grave danger. Monday : more low pressure systems tracking across london and the south from east to west giving front after front causing continious heavy disruptive snowfall throughout the 24 hour period, level snow depths then more that 2 metres across most parts and drifts on higher ground up to 10m deep. Tuesday : HP over scandinavia moving steadily SW towards us giving some respite and higher pressure over the South as any Lows now tracking much further south and not affecting us. Wednesday : dry with Sunny spells but no warmth and some temperature records look set to be smashed in central and Northern Areas as the Maximums struggle to get above -10 and minums widely down to -30 and as low as -45 in some parts. Thursday : Same Friday : The atlantic looks to pick up as a very deep low looks set to try to push the high out of the way but guess what, its not going to go as frontal systems look set stall over Central and Northern Britain giving another metre of level snow with some outragous drifts indeed some people in the Pennines by then may have been unable to leave their house for 5 days due to the fact that the snow level has been well above the roof of their houses.

The GFS still brings in a potent Northerly due to a 990mb low tracking eastwards thus opening the floodgates for some heavy and frequent rain anyway, i have always been confident of some Nationwide heat at some point during this summer but you have to say that it bears a striking resemblence to recent summers and if we are sitting here in 2 weeks time with similar output then that really looks like the end, she is not gargling just yet but she is certainly clearing her throat. Its just a shame for all the people who have UK holidays booked.

Mid 20s is still above avarage and in any sun in early afternoon would feel hot in my opinion, particularly with 75% relative humidity.

Just having some thundery showers with some quite loud claps.

I dont see what is wrong with PE's post, yes no one can guarantee what the weather will be like for the next 2 months granted but at the moment the met office agree with PE that the North will be colder than average and showery, and August has been cold and showery for the past few years so that is the form horse, i predicted a CET of over 18c for July but i have to admit now that is looking unlikely and around average is looking the likely outcome.

Just heard that there may be a volcano in iceland about to erupt, just wondered if its true and would it be good news or bad for our chances of getting a cold winter, i dont have any knowledge at all in this field.

Yes a decent chart for december, lets hope the shades of orange to the NW and the shades of blue over the continent start to deepen, denoting bigger anomalies on future runs, the chart for october could maybe see a repeat of October 2008. The difference of the charts are different runs, the analysis data is taken from different dates.

Indeed. Its the same as some people in winter talking about the scandinavian high being the holy Grail, its only the holy grail if it orientates favourably, which the one last february did not, and even then the cold pooling needs to be in the right place to tap into, the atlantic being weak and lower heights to the south are also preferable. SLP is a very important factor in weather, probably the single biggest factor but there a lot of other variables that can make a big difference.

Not really much to say apart from the fact that the models show a trough over us lasting until the weekend when it continues on its merry way drawing a brief NWerly for early next week. EDIT : sorry, that chart is out of date but the general synopsis for the next week is still Low pressure situated over Northern Britain giving some heavy showers, possibly even some thunder over Northern Britain. Any drier weather looks to be likely the further east and particularly south east you are.

I have no problem whatsoever with Gavin D's posts as someone earlier pointed out, it is a variety of different posting styles that makes any forum, the only thing i would say is that someone posting FI cold and northerlys is only doing exactly the same though and what season it is shouldnt make it any more or less acceptable to post a blown up pressure chart.

This backs up a point i have been making ever since i joined the forum, that although the GFS is third best overall, the criticism it receives is over the top and it is a very close third and has some merits and some bad points (predicting extreme weather in FI in winter like -15 uppers or 950mb lows being an example), however the reason the criticism exists is mostly based on NCEP being forced to release charts up to T380, if the ECM monthly model had to be released to the public every week then i wonder what stupid charts that would produced as the Met office 30 dayer is surely based on a lot more forecaster interpretation of model output using teleconnections than just plain model output.