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Candice

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    Possible Winter Storm December 27th

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    East coast is soft and porous prone to coastal erosion many metres of land will be lost to the sea risk of properties being lost, I think a red warning may be issued by the METO. In the event this happens, fortunately such occurances are really rare - but they do happen. And to be truthful overdue. :(

    To be honest, it's hardly overdue. Here on the Norfolk coast we had a really bad surge on the 5th December 2013, the effects of which are still apparent. Many properties were lost, particularly at Hemsby.
    • Like 1

    Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Well wow, what a fantastic storm I saw and chased up across the country. I first met the beast near Ashby de la Zouch as it was moving up from the south. I can quite honestly say I have never seen a storm look so dark and menacing, with clear rotation and frequent flashes from within it. As it got closer there was a clear gust front and the thunder was constant. There looked to be a funnel cloud too but by the time it dropped the rain was so heavy and winds too strong for me to easily film. I will see whether it came out or not when I edit my footage in the coming week. It then seemed like all hell broke loose with torrential rain, marble hail, really strong winds and bright flashes of lightning with gunshot thunder. Unfortunately my car then broke down as I tried to chase it due to the sheer amount of water. Anyway, around 20 minutes later my car decides it'll start again so I then chased the storm up the M1, and as I got closer to it near to Mansfield it was dropping some great CGS's which it continued to do all the way up to just past Doncaster. I never managed to get back ahead of it, but it seemed like most of the bolts were to the rear of the storm. I would be interested to know if this was a supercell as it was being discussed before i left to intercept it. All in all a great 24 hours. Chased across several counties overnight last night and today having done 520 miles in all! Here's to the next chase :)

    . hope to see your report and pics over in Skywarn.
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    Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Thoughts from the Chief Forecaster at SkyWarn UK

    Typically the month for the strongest cells, with severity depending largely on the jetstream pattern, this July isn't going to disappoint.

    Overnight Thurs into Fri the leading edge of the plume overspreads the majority of the UK, with widespread destabilisation up the Wrn side of the mainland through to NI and Wrn Scotland in the morning. This EML will heavily cap the lowest layers, but despite very high bases the high CAPE values and dry air could allow for some decent hail sizes, copious sferics and torrential rain. Hail less certain than precip risk, and precip risk dependent on storm motion which for the time being looks swift enough that we shouldn't see a flooding risk from this portion of the synoptic scenario.

    Thereafter, from around 13z Fri onwards, a build up of high SBCAPE occurs across the mainland as the EML fosters higher temps in what is a very moist column. Easily beating 2000J/Kg, though higher than that is questionable given cloud cover. Models aren't on agreement for a precip signal (surprise!), with the HIRLAM not seeing anything through Fri, Meteociel's WRF opening up the Mids, etc. The environment will be in place for a very severe risk though, with large hail and very heavy precip cores the main risks for any updrafts regardless of how long they last. Shear is meagre at first but gets better through the weekend, and it should be noted that even if spot locations don't appear to have good shear there will be sufficient mass ascent being north of the jet nose and mid-upper level shear for slight tilting of updrafts in what is a high instability environment. Organisation in the lowest 3km will depend largely upon surface shortwaves for focussing of instability and veering winds up the column, and this will likely drive the Warning detail.

    One thing to note, for this plume we shouldn't see the kind of upper level winds that would usually smear rising parcels into a high grey haze. Unless it does that over central France and advects northward.

    • Like 11

    Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Last bit from Skywarn made me chuckle:

     

    THERE ALSO EXISTS A RISK FOR THE SOUTH COAST, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF, OF ADVECTED CONTINENTAL STORMS. THESE WILL LIKELY BE MATURE AND MAY REINVIGORATE AFTER THE CHANNEL, ALSO PROMOTING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

     

    Have they ever watched a thunderstorm try cross the channel?  :rofl: 

    MAY being the operative word :air_kiss:

    • Like 1
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