kmanmx

Just watched the BBC Breakfest weather live on iPlayer. They claim there is still a 60mile north or south margin of error regarding the track of the low. But the snow they predicted is a bit at odds to what the UKMO/NMM/GFS are predicting, which is strange as i'm sure the BBC get there weather from the MetO.

Supposedly the NAE is one of the most credible in this time frame, yet it appears to be the one most different to the rest, which is interesting. Hopefully the NMM, UKMO re-adjust and follow NAE. As for GFS, well I have little faith in that. Good post by the way Isolated Frost, nice summary. I think your right to keep hopes up, still a lot to play for.

Though the latest NMM does not look favourable for the whole of midlands, anywhere north of northampton looks less than ideal.Latest Thurs 00z UKMO very similar track to previous run (Actually, slightly more SE), matches up very well with GFS, NAE. Slightly shallower low, precipiation similar. Though it's fairly low res, hard to tell. Models seem to agree on the track well, but how far the precip heads north inland and it's intensity varies quite a bit between the models.

Well NMM and NAE seem to show precip making it further north as well as being more significant. Only needs to be very sligthly wrong for Leics to atleast get falling snow - though seems unlikely to settle now. Unless GFS is totally right, then we're definitely screwed. Sad but probably correct there about cheshire gap flow. It's too late in the day, temps are already up to 2 or 3c by the time its predicted to hit midlands.

Figured a few people would get some snow from all the precip coming in from wales direction. Obviously your height helped alot.. 100m asl, 90% rain and 10% sleet here.

NMM Thursday 00z Disaster .. snow for south, south east. Anywhere north of Northampton is touch and go. Practically nothing for west midlands, and most of east midlands as far as i can tell. However... What i think is a Cheshire gap streamer (Not so sure, getting far to technical ) seems to be predicted to bring strong snow starting at 7am with a chunk of snow making it all the way down to south east coast, with rain and sleet following behind it. Oops sorry for double post !

Yeah atleast it's not much if at all a downgrade from the 18z run. Still seems like a marginal event definitely going to have to do some nowcasting.

Its hard to convert rain mm to snow amounts. When I go skiing, sometimes 10mm turns into 10cm of snow and sometimes it turns into 0.5cm of snow. Not sure. My estimates are just based off the amount of snow other people thought was going to fall, and thenr educing it by the amount the NAE reduced the precip levels.

Thurs 00z is out.. GFS track remains, NAE agreeing with it more. Still some snow, but precip accumalation around 25% what it was before. Doesn't extend as far north, snow is less intense but more widespread down south. Nottingham/Derby area is about the very northernmost extent. Northampton southwards should do okay, though it doesn't seem like it's going to accumalate well. Looks like moderate to heavy snow.. pretending the ground was dry and temps were lower perhaps 5cm most places, 10cm tops in a few places. But NAE Snow accumalation shows much less than this and not so widespread, a few cm tops. In summary looks like an upgrade for people a bit south of the midlands. And is fairly consistent with wednesdays 18z in terms of coverage, but a bit of a downgrade in amounts.Looks like GFS predicted the southerly track trend first. Thurs 00z Wednesdays 18z Accumulation Thursdays 00z Accumulation

The written forecast hasn't updated, but the icon forecast was updated at 3:01 along with the west midlands. Birmingham is predeicted Light snow and heavy snow for a point during early hours of Friday. Leicester gets light sleet throughout.. could of guessed that Seems somewhat dubious, same temperatures, yet we get rain. Hmm. Barely any further north eaither.. Leicester from MetO Birmingham

Precipitation working its well into the midlands from wales. Seems to be turning icier the further NE it progresses if radar is anything to go by. Bit warm though, 3 to 4c. 850's of -3. Mostly rain and sleet in all but the highest places at a guess. Only very light, no signif accumalations anywhere i'd guess.

Because the closer we get the more reliable and accurate the model becomes ? Yeah that pretty much nails it..

Yeah.. definitely not lost all potential yet.

Yeah as it is on the 18z NMM Northampton should atleast get some rain, and therefor the potential for snow.. ligther stuff is just about clipping into Leicestershire too. Really very little in it at this stage. Certainly a downgrade from the 12z, but i've seen more downgrades and upgrades of fridays storm in the last 7 days than i can count on both hands so like you say it may be a case of nowcasting and radar watching. Also is it just me or has the storm slowed down ? it looks like the precip is arriving 6hours later than previously, which isn't good.

Precipitation is heading fairly north.. not all is lost, the precip only needs to be 50miles east and 50miles north to give at least some of us a good covering according to NMM. It's just where we are i'm afraid. I blame it all on Ireland. If that country wasn't in the way, i swear we'd do a lot better from weather coming from west. Being in the center of a country is always going to be problematic when it comes to reiceving precip coming from the sea.

Well yeah, the GFS has removed most chances of snow and the NAE seems to totally got rid of any accumalating snow in the midlands compared to the 12z run. I still hope it's wrong.. need the NMM to cooperate nicely. How accurate is the GFS in the short term on these type of events ? I hope it bumps north again in the next run but from what others are saying that seems unlikely

Snow accumalations downgraded on NAE it looks like.

Oh wow GFS is disastrous.. So what models have updates in the last hour and are still showing good signs ?

This thread has suddenly died.. need the next model run to come out.

Makes sense. Need that rain to bugger off.. dry ground come friday please. But realistically there is a 98% chance of that not happening. I wasn't even thinking about it settling. We barely see snow falling around these areas, settling is just a bonus.

Good spot but from watching the radar regularly those blobs of rain have a funny habbit of vanishing around birmingham or sligthly prior. They don't seem to get to far. Though they're quite away off, might not even reach us.

On second analysis your right. Interesting seeing as they are supposedly only 25minutes apart You got that right. Well well well overdue.

Well atleast if it doesn't snow this thread has certainly been exciting Definitely. This storm seems to be unpredictable at best. Judging by the way the predictions have gone so far I wouldn't wager more than 50% certainty in the forecasts IMO. Ofcourse. I'm usually quite realistic, tend not to get over excited about these things. I know it could swing one way or the other though. Still, it's hard not to get excited.

Middle right of the page, theres a forecast from 6pm that seems pretty much identical to the forecast on the BBC at 6:30pm http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ Snow seems to be across most of us by 1am. Those on the eastern side of the west midlands and western side of the east midlands look like they are in a good place. I don't know the technical term but it almost seems to twist on that spot until 6 to 8am. According to that forecast a good 6 hours of Snow, seems optimistic ? While tempting i'm not sure I want to drive that far in my little 10 year old Volkswagen Polo if theres the potential for half a foot of snow

BBC Forecast for those that mised it.