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Brass_Monkeys

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Posts posted by Brass_Monkeys

  1. I am not hopefull at all, my point was the snow showers this

    Evening were forecast from the Humber south, yet the rogue

    Shower is getting through to the extreme south of the region.

    C.S

    The front moving in from the west looks as if it's making more progress than was forecast.

    I might be clutching at straws but like the showers making it much further inland it I'lll take any glimmer of hope I can!

  2. Rain today radar showing snow showers getting as far east as

    Macclesfield/Stoke area at the moment

    C.S

    Not much in the way of hills or high ground below the Peak District so the showers tend to track further. I wouldn't be too hopeful of any getting over the Pennines.

  3. So it's looking like this cold spell will extend through next weekend and possibly further.

    So that'll be more dry and sunny weather for us to look forward to!

    I know the longer a cold spell lasts the more chance of seeing snow but I can't get excited at the prospect of a sustained N'ly.

  4. Good evening

    Nothing to excited about still in the no snow zone. Apart from some chilly night time temps.

    Not sure temps will get too low overnight as the front moving in and bringing snow to parts of Scotland and Ireland will probably bring cloudy sky's to our region.

    You know we're out of luck when we have prime conditions for snow, a front moving in but no snow forecast.

  5. So as is normally the case our region is pretty quiet now that the wind is from the north.

    The models make pretty grim reading for the upcoming week in terms of snowfall.

    As ever things can change in an instant and we know there is plenty of instability associated with the airmass we are sourcing from the Arctic.

    Our next best opportunity is the little low due to move South through the Irish Sea late Monday or early hours of Tuesday.

    A lot will depend on the track of the low as to what falls dom the sky.

    On the western flank the PPN is likely to fall as rain. Anything that falls on the eastern flank will prob be of snow .

    Ideally we want the low to keep West well away from the coast.

    Euro4/GFS out at 48hrs:-

    So once again lots of marginality associated with this feature. Those on high ground to the East are probably most at risk from snow. Lots can change in 48 hours. Especially in this set-up. Will be interesting to see how the NNM sees it tomorrow.

    post-14390-0-07127200-1422784164_thumb.j

    post-14390-0-33187400-1422784186_thumb.j

  6. Might just make it to our place fella, moving slowly towards us on a strong North West wind.

    I can't make out any small features in the Irish Sea. Might be my amateur eye??

    I doubt the PPN will move west in our direction. About 3 mile too far west. It's likely to slip S and E.

    I'm happy that those on the coast who've suffered from rain and sleet lately are getting a bit of snowðŸ˜

    post-14390-0-18320100-1422762034_thumb.j

  7. I'm on about the here and now.

    Yes, I realise that. I tried to find it on satellite imagery but couldn't see it.

    Someone in another regional thread (Midlands I think) spotted what he thought was a low forming just below the IOM earlier this evening.

  8. Surely that would be forward building lol.

    I'm looking at it as the opposite from the direction of travel. Hence building backwards.

    It might be purely down to the instability in the flow and not due to the low on the E coast?

    Nice to see some developments anyway

  9. Just been checking out some alternative radar and the forecast path of the PPN.

    I doubt very much they are accurate or reflect the topography effects etc.

    Probably just send the PPN on at the same rate and on the same track its heading currently.

    Even so, they both had some PPN making it into the region around 0230hrs.

    post-14390-0-13730400-1422750725_thumb.j

    post-14390-0-79728100-1422750735_thumb.j

  10. Do you think features could set up in this northerly flow I thought is is supposed to be an unstable northerly flow so what is stopping the ppn forming - can't snow events appear at short notice in this pattern ala 2010?

     

    Luke

    The flow only turned N'ly this afternoon. So yes just have to wait and see.

    Personally I find lowland NW away from the hills rarely gets much in a N'ly set-up.

    You will always have the chance of coastal showers from time to time.

  11. Hi,

     

    What do you think of the chances of me seeing some snow in Liverpool over the next couple of days it would be nice to get something from this cold spell.

     

    Luke

    Because of the instability in the N'ly flow little troughs and depressions can seemingly form out of nowhere.

    There looks to be quite a few kinks in the isobars showing up in the charts for the next few days.

    So can't say with any amount of certainty but there's chance something will crop up in the flow. Just hope we get lucky.

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