Brass_Monkeys

January 31, 2015

Satellite imagery of the small Low just of the East Coast of Scotland.

Doesn't appear to be that much PPN associated with it just yet. Could do with lots on its Eastern side so as it spins it slingshots it over the hills into the NW

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

January 31, 2015

Yes I've noticed they're often at 30 or 40. I can't recall ever seeing 90. I've definitely seen 60 and perhaps a 70 although I'm not certain.

Apparently only 30 and 40 are used with PROB. Anything higher they use TEMPO.

Guess I didn't see 50-70 PROB after all. That's the trouble with Tafs - all letters and numbers.

I got the info here:

http://www.ap-i.net/meteo/tafexpl.html

It's quite surprising how much info they contain when you start to decipher the code!

January 31, 2015

That % is pretty typical. You often see 30% and 40%. Has anyone seen a TAF saying 90% or over?

Yes I've noticed they're often at 30 or 40. I can't recall ever seeing 90. I've definitely seen 60 and perhaps a 70 although I'm not certain.

January 31, 2015

Manchester Airport TAF goes for light snow showers tonight

TAF: EGCC 311700Z 3118/0124 32012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 3118/0106 32017G27KT PROB30 TEMPO 3122/0104 3000 -SHSN BKN009 PROB30 TEMPO 0106/0111 33015G25KT

Only %30 probability so low confidence

January 31, 2015

The best snowfalls are always the surprise ones. This evening is a developing situation, the BBC obviously not too sure where it will snow, and this is why they are saying anywhere could wake up to a fresh snow cover. Best to keep an open mind in these situations..

Yes I agree. However, I prefer to temper my expectations with experience.

Like you say there's a reason the Met have a yellow warning over the region. Probably just erring on the side of caution, though.

I hope I'm wrong and have to go bollocko in the snow!

January 31, 2015

Nmm updated 12z has a lot of snow....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=23&mode=45&map=330

Looking very good for Scotland,N England, East Coast and NI.

The SW and parts of Wales may also fair well overnight.

There's probably more chance of some snow running into the Midlands than there is our region.

Will be a case of radar viewing and touring the snowy regional threads later.

January 31, 2015

The East of the country have yellow warnings extending out until Thursday next week.

I think it will be those living furthest East in our region who may see some snow tonight. Having better elevation will help also .

If I get snow cover tonight I'll dance naked on it in the street!

January 31, 2015

on the main forum a thread just started of a potential polar low forming just off Norway, seems interesting...

The MetO are forecasting a small low to come close to the NE later today, maybe that's it?

(Hence the increased risk of snow showers tonight)

January 31, 2015

Radar says I'm under the PPN but struggling to see anything falling. Definitely not snowing. Very fine drizzle perhaps?

**Edit - definitely rain ðŸ˜’

January 31, 2015

Showers moving back into the region from the NE.

There looks to be a streamer in the Irish Sea feeding across N Wales into the Midlands. Could this invigorate the PPN from the NE and vice versa and aid development in the region?

Shame temps are a little high at 3.5C DP 1.0C

January 30, 2015

Couple of inches from last nights feature. Everywhere nice and white.

January 30, 2015

Heavy snow

January 30, 2015

Any reports from Wigan? The showers from the Irish sea seem to have reached that area now.

Fine light/mod soft hail/snow atm

January 29, 2015

Just up the road fr St.helens and now have snow falling, moderately.

**Edit- heavy snow

January 29, 2015

Just up the road fr St.helens and now have snow falling, moderately.

January 28, 2015

ðŸ˜œðŸ˜„

January 28, 2015

Plenty of showers this evening but mainly of rain. Some hail mixed in during the heavier bursts.

Perhaps things will turn a bit more wintry later on...

...or perhaps not.

I certainly won't be loosing any sleep over it.

January 28, 2015

Well no need to open the curtains here, I can tell you it's frequent rain showers rattling the glass amid a howling gale.

After hail and snow around 4.30pm I thought it would be snow all the way tonight.

Lots of activity out West which is likely to carry on through the night. Should be some nice accumulations around the region by tomorrow morning.

January 28, 2015

Just had quite an intense soft hail shower and now snow showers

January 28, 2015

It's looking like the snow showers will only really start to get going after dark tomorrow. This should help tilt the scales towards more favourable conditions regards accumulative snowfall.

If areas do fair badly thru Wednesday/Thursday, in terms of lying snow, conditions still look favourable through the weekend and early next week for further snowfalls to occur.

January 28, 2015

I'm pretty sure there are no exclusions based on locale in any of the regional threads.

It's kinda like popping next door for a cuppa with your neighbour.

...Or it should be!

January 28, 2015

"I don't understand it?!?!...The models all predicted snowmagedon in the Northwest!!!"

January 27, 2015

GFS 18z certainly looking good for the NW.

All eyes on the radar tomorrow night and into Thursday.

January 27, 2015

I'd say that's quite a realistic basic guide. 60% chance of accumulative snow for lowland areas or below about 150m.

Considering snowfall will be in the form of showers its nigh on impossible to predict amounts.

There will be heavy snow showers and some will see more than others.

The BBC graphics are representative of where the showers are likely to be focused but it's far from exact or definitive detail.

Personally I'm quite optimistic with how things are looking for the next few days.