Tim M
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Posts posted by Tim M
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@Nick123 Likewise!
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@Lisa Martin Also hoping for a quieter night, hate the damage wind can cause! Fingers crossed.
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@Lisa Martin Yes definitely a lot livelier here in Mansfield than Sunday night, and a few hours yet until the peak gusts forecasted by most models.
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1 minute ago, The PIT said:
Too much of southerly component for us hence only 53mph max gust.
Let's hope it stays that way from my point of view just down the road in Mansfield. Gusting 50mph plus here for last 2 hours, around 5mph higher than forecast for this time of the storm. Wonder why Mansfield seems to be one of 'worst' areas away from coasts and hills etc
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1 minute ago, Lord Grogon said:
Not quite. These are gusts in kph. So if I'm reading correctly it's 70mph gusts along the coast. 50-60mph inland. With some inland locations poss a bit higher.
A nasty event, but nothing ridiculously extreme in terms of windspeed.
What's actually more impressive is the size of the windfield as it impacts all of England and Wales. Cetainly, you'd have the whole country under at least a yellow warning. Storm Henk this ceratainly isn't...
GFS just out has my area, Mansfield, North Midlands, down for 75mph gusts! To me that is ridiculous for our area. Hope GFS is overdoing it.
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12 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:
As far as I can see so far, the 12z suite continues the theme and strength of the winds. I wonder if the MO are keeping their powder dry by showing western areas only so far, and then expanding areas and severity of the warnings on Saturday or so?
Looking at the recent GFS, it seems to be that east is now worse. Quite concerned as my area, Mansfield in North Midlands / South Yorkshire, now has 75mph gusts! Certainly we havn't had gusts that strong since the 80s I think.
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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Still a good 30 hrs to go at least before Eunice makes its presence felt. Expect more subtle variation from the models next 24 hrs. A shallower more southerly positioned feature is want we want - who wants 70mph plus winds no one really.
Is there still a more than 1% chance of this with all the models seeming to be in so much broad agreement?
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1 minute ago, shunthebartlett92 said:
Wouldn’t it just be classic this winter for a massive track change at the last minute? That’s all I’m saying….
I really hope for this, but can't see any hope.
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20 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:
I have seen that the estimated gusts though in the metoffice site have been ca 20% lower than the ones that even there own chart has been showing all day and yesterday
That has puzzled me too... is that down to human input after looking at the data perhaps?
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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
I'll keep saying it, the GFS is one of the best at forecasting the intensity within T72. And when the GFS gets the black ink out, it usually ends up with a Met Office red warning.
Is it also one of best for forecasting tracks of such storms?
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To show how everything changes, forecast for my area (North Notts) now says the worst wind gusts for me will be Wednesday night as part of Storm Dudley - forecast gusts upgraded to 60mph by XC Weather (GFS) for example Wednesday night, rather than on Friday, with that model now reducing max gust for me from 75mph on previous run to 48mph .
As always with the weather I suppose we just have to wait and see.
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Hope this is the right place to ask this question: Why are the predicted wind gusts on the likes of Met Office and BBC websites something like 20/30mph less than XC Weather (GFS I know) for my area, North Notts (as an example) and a lot less than the charts being posted on here.
In fact, MO and BBC at the moment are predicting higher wind gusts for Wednesday night for me and the predicted speeds for Friday have slightly reduced on those 2 sites, despite from reading on here the main models suggesting the opposite.
I suppose my question is, how are the predicted wind speeds/gusts on websites like MO/BBC arrived at.
Thanks for any pointers.
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To my very untrained eye GFS/UKMO/ECM all now seem pretty much same in terms of areas to be worst hit. My area (North Nottinghamshire) pretty scary 40mph sustained winds Friday lunchtime with gusts approaching 80mph.
Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south?
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9 minutes ago, Timbo said:
I think you may be wrong on this system, if any thing it looks like it will be moving on a more Southerly track.
Southerly enough to take it away from UK? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
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3 hours ago, The PIT said:
nine times out of ten storms downgrade quite a bit nearer the time so may lose 10 to 15mph from the top speeds but still windy.
Hope so! Just down the road from you The Pit and XC tonight says 39mph average wind speed for a time on Friday for me - not seen that before for a long, long, long time. Gusts up to 70mph are also more than we have had for many a year.
Met Office website has toned the speeds a little from earlier and, of course, I know in weather terms Thursday and Friday are still a long way off.
But I have to admit I am already concerned about the back end of this week.
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3 minutes ago, Vee89 said:
Can I ask are you just going off met office for local predictions of wind We are in the red area and not sure exactly what to expect .
Based on advice from experienced members on here, I usually add 5-10mph to Met Office max gust predictions and usually focus on XC Weather (GFS) as being more reliable for short-term wind speed predictions or other weather models that members post.
I am a total amateur though!!
Man With Beard who has just posted is a far better source of reliable advice!
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13 minutes ago, Simon M said:
Consider yourself lucky. We only have a yellow warning for wind where I live with gusts expected to top out around 50mph and I'm pretty anxious, so I can't imagine how worried people in the red warning area might be.
Snap! Though looking at 60mph in my area.
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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Wind update for tomorrow night. Lots of short range models now in view of the event. There's a bit of a split. One group generally sees peak gusts to 80mph or 90mph on NE coasts, 70-80 mph for coasts the west - ARPEGE showing 100mph but it frequently overdoes things. The EURO4 chart is reasonably representative of this cluster (note: these are maximum wind speeds during the run, not one particular time slot)
However, another group is now keeping the worst winds off the east coast, and not so significant for the west. The GFS has followed this group today - still 60-70mph for the NE but nothing like as bad as the others:
MWB... thanks for this, as a complete novice which group is/are the graphics relating to? - Thank you have seen edit of your graphics, much appreciated!
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9 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Yep I am watching extremely closely as I am in / directly next to those highest wind zones
Where do we think the worst of the winds will be. My area, north Notts, has veered from max predicted gusts of 50 to now 60plus this morning on latest GFS run. Yet MO say 45mph. Which is more reliable?
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Arpege, XC Weather both showing 60mph plus gusts for us... Met not so strong but aren't they known for underestimating wind speed in storms a little?
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BBC TV just gone for potentially stormy late Wednesday/Thursday
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
The Netweather monthly forecast is looking pretty spot on so far!
out of interest does anyone know or keep a record of how often the NW monthly forecast is accurate, particularly going into the weeks 3 and 4?
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As per the NW monthly forecast then?
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40 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
I was out and about in Dudley this morning. A huge black cloud . Heavy snow shower. Half an our. 2cm on the ground. Then the sun came out and thankfully it all melted away. I even commented to a lady walking her dog that I thought we had seem the last of it. Any way. All gone now. Let the spring begin. Had enough cold and dark to last a life time. Always hate November-February. Depressing horrible rubbish.
Can we start a Chasing Spring thread rather than Chasing Cold ... Not felt warm since mid November here. At least the days are noticeably getting longer.
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Storm Jocelyn, Amber ⚠️
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Still very blustery here in north Midlands, almost 24 hours of strong and blustery winds.