Tim M
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Posts posted by Tim M
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So it is still raining in Mansfield - 31 hours non-stop now - and yet many forecasts kept saying throughout today that it would eventually dry up this afternoon - raintoday has constantly said the rain would ease off in the 3rd/4th hour of its forecast only to change as the timeframe drew nearer.
Does anyone actually know when it will stop? (And that is not meant to be sarcastic)
Looking at the radar it looks very unlikely that it will be this evening as many forecasts suggested earlier today.
And if not, then what chance is there for accurate forecasting days in advance when we can't forecast a few hours ahead as seems to be the case at the moment. (Again not being sarcastic)
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Re rainfall totals - ignore ECM and GFS, at least for where I live, as they are no longer realistic already. Here in Mansfield it has been raining non-stop - and mostly heavy - for 22 hours now and looking at the radar it will continue for many hours yet as we are right in the middle of the 'streamer' from the North Sea.
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Yes this has been ugraded for my area, North Notts, in terms of wind by Met Office and NW. Strangely XC Weather, which usually has highest wind speed predictions, has lowest of 3.
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Thanks everyone... yes my mistake, I did mean a 'usual' autumn/spring storm.
No downgrades yet and yes Pit, I am just a few miles down the M1 from you so keeping an eye out tomorrow night too.
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Surprised no mention anywhere of forecast strongish winds late Friday and Saturday yet. NetWeather forecast has my backyard down for 34 sped and gusts well into 60s.
Is it anything to be concerned about or just a 'usual' winter storm?.
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Strange how Met Office has upgraded slightly wind speeds from yesterday but XC Weather have downgraded.
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Met Office just upped windspeed and gust forecasts further for me (Mansfield).
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Hi Jo,
When would we know about when and where the deepening will take place, or is it a case of wait and see on the day?
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2 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Funny as soon as the warnings come local forecast downgrades the wind speeds.
That's exactly what I was thinking for where I am (Mansfield). It said gusts to 57mph on Met Office up to the warning being issued, now down to 51. Strange. I am certainly hoping for the latter!
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As i've said in the other thread you posted this on, 10% chance of rain DOES NOT mean it won't rain.
Agreed ... but 10% chance of showers does not, surely, mean 4 hours of persistant, at times heavy, rain.
And an East Midlands text forecast of showers for Lincolnshire only should not mean persistent rain for Mansfield?
Why single out Lincs for rain only for instance?
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It said 10% chance. That doesn't mean it wouldn't happen. You are just unlucky.
This just shows the problem people have with this method of forecasting. They don't know how to interpret the numbers.
I know what you are saying, but 10% chance of showers does not equate to 4 hours of persistent and at times heavy non-stop rain. And the written forecast said no rain, only for Lincolnshire. Mansfield is not in Lincs.
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I wouldn't take the Met Office short-term predictions let alone the long-term! Take now for instance, 10% chance of rain in Mansfield today apparently. Currently raining, has been for an hour and will do for at least 3/4 more hours looking at rain radar. Abysmal!
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Many thanks PM
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Could someone please point me to the thread to talk about MO and other forecasts accuracy please? Love following the discussion but can't believe how wrong the MO is for my area, Mansfield, today. 10% chance of rain as it pours it down and will do for some time looking at the radar. Mansfield is not in Lincolnshire.
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Confused by forecasts ... GFS has hardly any rain for me in Mansfield whereas BBC/Met O predict a total torrential washout for Saturday and first half Sunday.
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No disappointment re snow in Mansfield, around 3cms after the deluge on Boxing Day.
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Around 3cms in Mansfield ... not to a particularly high elevation either. Yet nothing a few miles away in Newark.
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He's probably referring to Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire. They saw a good 1-2 foot of snow from streamers coming in off the North Sea. While Leicestershire saw a dusting. We did get around 3 inches later on in December though.
Yes can confirm in Mansfield easily had well over a foot off the streamers that kept coming in day after day after day after ...
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Met Office recently upgraded warnings for my area (Mansfield) to include all of Thursday. Also now saying strongest winds (28mph, gusts to double) for my area will be Thursday late afternoon. They do seem to be playing catch-up on this after, as I said yesterday, a shockingly inaccurate forecast on Sunday night for Monday.
Also, as others have said, the BBC definitely seem to be playing the whole thing very low key.
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Judging by the Met Office's abject forecast last night for my area (Mansfield) today, I don't hold out much hope that their less powerful storm forecast will be anywhere near correct.
Last night they said early rain clearing, now have changed to rain all day!
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Great post , if I could read it, Better get the magnifine Glass
Very fair point AW
Here I go again ... A little confused by the various forecasts. The Met Office for my region (Mansfield, Notts), updated 7pm, says a max gust of 52mph overnight Wed/Thur which would be lower than the Friday night/Saturday morning just gone. They also don't seem to make Thursday daytime that windy at all (relatively speaking of course) compared to other forecasts.
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A little confused by the various forecasts. The Met Office for my region (Mansfield, Notts), updated 7pm, says a max gust of 52mph overnight Wed/Thur which would be lower than the Friday night/Saturday morning just gone. They also don't seem to make Thursday daytime that windy at all (relatively speaking of course) compared to other forecasts.
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Despite forecasts to the contrary by the MetO, it's raining in Mansfield and has been for a while. Not sure how they can get forecasts at such short notice, i.e. this morning, so horribly wrong?
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To think when I watched the Countryfile forecast just over 36 hours ago I planned a whole day of working outside today after a washout day yesterday.
As it is a 2nd consecutive washout is on the cards with the rain just stuck in a similar area! At present it's coming down as heavily as it did for much of yesterday and looks set to last for hours yet with no sign of this morning's BBC forecast decaying occurring. I haven't checked my gauge yet today and won't bother until it stops.
Please bring back the balmy conditions of earlier this month or even last week's clear / convective conditions!
Not only that (and it is still raining in Mansfield as it has virtually non-stop for 30plus hours now) but forecasting of this low in the first place was poor too. The first most heard of it was rom a poster on here several days before the MetO or the BBC etc mentioned it in forecasts.
Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Will it ever stop for any length of time? After a couple of dry hours in Mansfield - the first since 11am Monday - we have had another wet afternoon and evening looking likely