Tim M
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Posts posted by Tim M
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3 hours ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
it can’t until it moves into MJO 1 which won’t be till March. MJO 7+8 is scandi and Greenland blocking plus lag effect, more vortex disruption too!
Is this 'set in stone'? Or is there any hope at all for those who don't like the very very very cold being shouted out for in the Model forum? Thanks.
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6 hours ago, Gooddaysunshine said:
I’m new on here I made the mistake of venturing into the model thread. I’m now terrified! I know people like events that make history but there seems to be so much glee. I don’t understand it.
Snap! The possible scary low temperatures being suggested for later in February will affect a lot of people badly both physically and mentally - not to mention delay the vaccine roll out and delay some sort of normality anytime soon.
So will the now almost certain, I fear, prolonged cold for at least 3/4 weeks. Why is this being celebrated with cries of 'bring it on'? As someone else has said, be careful of what you wish for.
And why are people who prefer mild or at least not ridiculous cold 'shouted at' and ridiculed in the model thread? I know the mods call for 'calm' from posters but too much aggression is aimed at mild-chasing posters.
As someone else has said, where is the thread for those looking for a return to milder conditions?
This is a great website (esp the model output thread) with great experts and great posters with varied opinions and ways of looking at and interpreting the charts, but it is a website for ALL weather NOT just cold weather.
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Genuine question from a lurker with little knowledge but a strong interest... If, as everyone is saying/implying, the GFS is such a poor model for so many situations (blowing up lows, too progressive with westerlies breaking through blocks etc), why are we all scrutinising it so much and so often so many times every day? If the UKMO is really king surely that is all we should be concerned with?
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16 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
if you are really unsure of how the output affects your own location then the best place to ask is your regional discussion area.
If we all do that, then we will be less stressed or annoyed about posters taking their own regional perspective about the model output and a lot more sympathetic to each and everyone’s own take.
It really isn’t that difficult to do!
But what if you don't know which regional thread to use :-)... my location - Mansfield - always falls between 2! Joking aside, I agree re the sentiment though after reading so many 'downgrade' posts when there clearly has not been a downgrade of the cold spell as such, just how it may affect a particular area after a particular run.
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Thanks air, interesting to get a little background.
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28 minutes ago, matty40s said:
The Amber has probably been extended to this area as there are so many EA warnings already.
Was wondering why my area (Mansfield) was suddenly added to Amber area when looking at the various rainfall charts it doesn't really seem to warrant more than a yellow (at this stage at least) to my totally untrained eye.
Thanks for the insight.
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Kasim, when do you think it will stop in the Mansfield area - it looks on the raintoday radar as never ending for this afternoon and not petering out soon as most forecasts suggested earlier.
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Here in Mansfield - never know if we are South Yorks or Midlands for weather, I always think SY is more appropriate - have say our current 2cms to 4cms lying snow was a surprise if you only looked at the Met Office/Beeb forecast etc. Last night on local news the BBC weather presenter said "I would be surprised if we get snow"!!!!!! Or words to that effect.
I have to say Kasim called this far earlier than anyone else for my location and his 'forecast' last night was very reasoned with lots of detail as to why he was saying it would be a much bigger event than was being forecast by the vast majority.
Problems on side roads now with cars stuck - I have just been to our local hospital and they are having to throw a lot of grit around the site to keep it moving. Staff are complaining that they were not forewarned!
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So as Met Office decrease predicted wind speeds for my area (Mansfield) so XC Weather, which did not make much of the storm until today is now increasing.
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Surprised no mention of Saturday night wind storm mentioned by Met Office anywhere that I can see... Though others don't seem to be making so much of wind speeds.
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3 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
Seems very gusty here tonight. Ironically it feels and sounds more windier than when Storm Ciara was here.
Really don’t understand BBC forecasts - says 20mph gusts for tonight and then tomorrow 45mph gusts. Seems very random/inconsistent.
Yes the BBC website/app wind speeds woefully inadequate for my area. Others like Met Office/XC weather seem spot on with gusts of around 50mph
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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:
it feels windier here than yesterday.
Definitely as windy here just down the road in Mansfield as it was for most of yesterday, aside from when the squall line came through - very gusty at the moment, the third period of very strong winds in 36 hours.
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To my totally untrained eye the latest GFS run seems to take the very worst of the wind gusts a little further south than before - or is that just wishful thinking from my point of view in the north Midlands/south Yorkshire area and not wanting the worst of the wind?
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47 minutes ago, elfinpunk said:
New Metoffice update moves the 40mph+ winds to no earlier than Saturday evening now and a lowering to 51mph max over Sunday/Monday night x
Yet for me in Mansfield and the East Midlands in general the speeds have been increased to gusts 60mph Sunday afternoon and mean speeds 30mph which is extremely unusual for our location.
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Surprised by MetOffice wind warning for Thursday for my area (Notts) - predicted winds for my area (Notts) even on their own website are higher today than Thursday.
Now if the warning was for Monday night/Tuesday early hours I could understand it but guess that is too far out at the moment.
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:
And what a surprise it raining and some of it quite heavy at times another miserable day to look forward to.
Yes and to think local TV said Sunday would be dry for me (Mansfield) on Sunday on Friday night!
The rain band has spread and now looks like the rain will last for us
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Serious question. When will the rain stop around Mansfield - all previous forecasts now out of the window as the rain is intensifying (if that was possible) for us yet the overall area of rain is shrinking.
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Absolutely hammering it down still in Mansfield, no let up and looking at the radar still a lot more to come. Also turning very occasionally to sleety stuff but then reverting back to rain. When will it stop?
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20 minutes ago, mhielte said:
Don't speak too soon, the band has intensified in the worst possible place... just east of Doncaster. Radar looks horrendous. The main band is ebbing and flowing in intensity. Luck of the draw now whether you cop a lighter spell of rain or a deluge.
Yes definitely ebbing and flowing with the torrential rain first just north of me, then over me, then just south and then back over and north etc
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Yes the main area of rain seems focused just south of Sheffield and right over us in a line from say Derby to just north of Grimsby... which stubbornly is refusing to move further north at the moment.
5 minutes ago, The PIT said:Moved away from here for now it maybe staying to the south of us. The band didn't successfully merge.
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Thank you, fingers crossed... and that the rain moves through quickly... though the stronger winds this time is not helping!
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Mansfield, where I am, has been very wet for most of the day and now torrential ran for abut an hour - with a lot more to come n the radar. Whats it with Thursdays and Saturdays and heavy rain this year!
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And the North Midlands suffering too once again - i.e Mansfield where I am has had heavy-ish/moderate rain for most of the day and is now torrential and has been very heavy for around an hour - and looking at the radar there is an awful lot more to come.
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2 hours ago, The PIT said:
Looking at the radar looks like the rain is going to stall further north than us so the amber warning may be unneeded here. Time will tell.
Hope you are right because that would mean the rain eases in my area (Mansfield) but looking at the radar I fear persistent often heavy rain for me for the rest of the day and possibly through most of the evening/night.
Or am I wrong?
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Where is the bbc/Met forecasts thread please? Thanks