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legritter

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Posts posted by legritter

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    SAfternoon ,looking forward to this evenings runs of the models with hopefully a continuation of a promise of an easterly ,let's hopefully get some cold in from the east first and if the dice falls right some snow to follow ,we are gang at a good position on Jan 12th ,and of course we do have a current wintry blast so we all should be happy , this is what we all wanted ,so STELLAS all round ,catch you up later :hi:

    • Like 6

    South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Afternoon ,can confirm here at winscombe about 50 mtrs ASL we have a temperature of 4.2 c steady rain ,but more importantly the wind now northwesterly , if we can keep that area of precipitation going for several hours and a bit of luck we could see that magical white stuff ,any showers over night would be of snow i think so any one in the right spot could do well ,right back to caring for my 94 yr old mum inlaw ,but a bit of curtain twitching required tonight cheers gang .:yahoo:

    • Like 2

    SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Just been forced to go out and got caught in moderate drizzle. I'd forgotten how quickly one gets thoroughly soaked in mod. drizzle with a strong wind.

    also just been out ,but not forced out ,mod drizzle here and windy ,cant wait for this arctic plunge ,hoping for some good features running across our area ,providing the welsh do not steal it all ,cheers .

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

    sorry to be a pain have been an avid cold weather watcher for a few years I want to get in on the model talking but don't know how to post charts I have only an iPad no computer can it be done then I hope to add some more chat to the debate.thanks guys and gals .

    Yes it can be done ,if i can do it so can you ,took me a while ,so if you click on a chart probably with finger and down load like you would a photo and save it in your files ,then follow instructions IE where it says Drag files here to attach , sorry just basic but plenty more posters will put the answer better ,back to charts and lets see if our cold n westerly is still on course ,cheers .

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    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well i,v certainly not giving up on a good cold snowy spell , its very frustrating watching our models showing high pressure in the wrong place for us coldies but at this early stage of winter i feel we have plenty of time left .this mornings Ecm at day 8 i,m hoping will go on to show a low moving to the east of our local ,no guarantee but looking at all current charts etc etc it does look like as we approach about the 12th of january  several colder options could arrive to give us something to be cheerfull about ,GFS as recently been tempting us with a northerly blast on recent runs ,talk of a possible easterly by met off although low chance , and some of the prophets of cold and snow [bastardi and co etc ] is there something lurking out there , all very interesting ,well GFS starting up soon ,ecm tonight one to watch , death to slugs especially euro ones , i havent posted much lately but just in case any one missed my h n year message , all the best gang ,we are a tough bunch of Hunters ,so lets hope later today we can start the Hunt for cold and snow again ,cheers :hi::yahoo:

    Spoiler

     

     

    • Like 12

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Evening gang ,as long as we can hopefully keep some good cold to our east and far n east I am hopefully of something more wintry turning up ,I know it's day 9 and ten on ecm but that top right corner on the chart could become our friend ,if that high over n West Russia area can set up right it could lead us into what we desire ,seen it before myself and seen many historical charts ,just a thought ,is this what Exeter are seeing ,anyhow 94 yr old mother in law needs tucking in ,then I will pour out a STELLA  I wish all my Fellow posters and NW  team all the Best for 2017 ,best weather forum in the northern hemisphere by far ,cheers :drunk-emoji::hi:

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, IDO said:

    We knew that GFS 06z of two days ago would be downgraded, but this is a complete about turn:

    Nowgfs-15-174.pngThengfs-15-216.png

    I don't think the turnaround could have been worse!

    i,m trying not to look ,still i,m certain that next weekend being 7 days away is nowhere beiing modeled at the moment .totally different on ECM , GFS later today may totally flip back ,expect one hell of a roller coaster ,met office update critical today also tonights runs , it seems to be the placing of high pressure so gang chill out ,the last straw [its still 2016] mid level block stop taking the pi.. ,cheers gang :cold:

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Although the  gfs run as just changed its mind again ,look at the cold its only a stones throw away and at 7 days away it could easily flip back tonight with a stonker . Ecm of course critical but with todays met update in our favour its still looking good ,we all know good things take time ,are we approaching A knife edge situation ,that could be good seen it many times before in winters past ,stay calm gang  catch you all up later ,from behind settee :cold:

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    How do we know it has a negligible effect. If a butterfly flapping its wings can change the outcome then surely lack of data can do the same. Also do you know the exact amount of weather balloons launched on a normal day and how many on xmas day. If you cannot answer then you cannot say Xmas model output isn't affected.

    Another thought ,perhaps we need to take into account the number of planes taking off and flying around ,if a butterfly flapping its wings can effect our atmosphere [just a thought ]I dont mean to appear rude but looking outside this morning at all the north american air traffic coming in i,m sure that must affect our atmosphere .

    Iwould also like to point out too new members , the study of aircraft contrails is a very interesting read ,and for any one trying to understand the upper atmosphere at about 300mb which is about 30,000 feet  different thicknesses and length of these contrails also how fast they break up etc , any how models today looking very encouraging for out past this sunday ,but dont look for the snow word too much at the moment as this will come nearer the time in any met forecast ,there are Weather sharks out there people with no more interest than selling their papers etc , well gang catch you up later at that golden hour of 7pm for tonights runs ,cheers :yahoo:

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi gang ,the weather past about 7 to 8 days is currently hard to put detail on for the UK, but we do have many things going in our favour , UK met are on board so is ecm and gfs ,there will be swings day to day but let's look at the models more day to day same time for comparison .remember how Dec 2010 went big let downs one day Stella runs the next .

    Winter snow and cold doesn't come easy to our shores ,many of our classic winters IF now around now with our modern technology  computers etc  would still give us a roller coaster ,collapsing high pressure being one of them (end of January 63 )high to our north collapsed south allowing Atlantic in for two days ,then new high formed ,icy blast continued .apart from the thrill of deep snow ,my interest is how would modern day Britain cope ,how would the Media respond , social media ,government , and how soon would our models forecast a mayor snow storm , the wording of forecasts etc on tv ,it's great when we get people like Fergie weather pop in to our forum ,and I would love to hear him say Big snow south of M4 corridor, and of course north , well I, m very happy with current prospects but must admit a bit uneasy until we get a few more runs ,gosh I, m hanging  cheers gang :drunk-emoji::yahoo:.

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Yes they absolutely do. However, global teleconnections influential for the UK remain extremely weak for the forseeable and thus of little forecast use.

    The only consistent element in latest longer-term forecasts is the unusually strong SPV signalled to remain throughout January, which - taken in isolation - would imply a leaning to +ve NAO. However, longer-range predictions aren't so clear-cut on NAO and the sudden lack of almost any useful signal in ECMWF beyond 1st week of January is, in itself, considered very unusual.

    If basing prediction on GloSea5 alone, the anticyclonic theme remains dominant - but weakening - further into extended range (ie by d15), with this sinking south to allow a mean westerly flow across us and a gradual upward turn in temperature. However, given that a conspicuously colder phase looks set for first few days of 2017 (scope/longevity/severity uncertain) and signals then suddenly vanish thereafter, forecast confidence beyond week 1 of Jan remains much lower than normal.

    Thank you Fergie weather, so looking at current data and models I would say the first 3 to 4 days of January look cold ,but beyond that ,signal for a return to westerly winds ,well gang that covers the next TEN days ,which we all know is ages in forecasting terms ,so let's hang on in there and prey ,great forum ,I would say probably the best in the world of weather forums , don't forget that on the score of Lost data over christmas any high at 10 days would be modeled far too south , (don't take my word for it ) right again my Christmas wishes to you all ,cheers gang  from a very mild West mendip village ,6 years ago minus 9 and 20 cms of the white stuff ,cheers :yahoo::cold:

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes i,m very happy with todays model runs ,charts data etc .but i would need to see continuation this evening and tomorrow , certainly looking good for a colder start to 2017 , but its so frustrating knowing that things can change at short notice [like just one run ] lets see where we are come 7pm this evening ,and perhaps then i may open a Stella or Two , and of course todays Met off update ,which is composed using data we dont get to see past about 6 days ,cheers gang ,:yahoo::cold:

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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Must be very hard to say what the synoptic situation will be come early January, at ten days away that's ages in meteorological time .Also bearing in mind that the upper atmosphere at this moment could be cooking something up ,even in this modern day the amount of data collected is minimal even with sattelite and computers ,our only hope from current pattern is time IF you want some magical white stuff and ice days , looking very likely that the Atlantic could slow down so let's hope any high pressure can establish in the right position ,another straw clutch for me is the fact that the euro slug as been king for a while ,let's hope a new king comes to power , thanks to Fergie weather for his input into our top weather forum ,cheers :hi::cold:.

    • Like 11

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Its looking increasingly likely that after the coming unsettled spell which is forecast by models charts etc  Will come a spell of high pressure dominated weather for the UK but where this high pressure is going to be situated come the turn of the new year is still yet open to many possible out comes .of course it could move away south allowing the atlantic train to come rushing in ,or it could even back west then migrate north , there seems to be many options on the table , but looking across the atlantic it does look like high pressure could be setting up shop around n east canada ,which could allow our weather to perhaps take on more of a wintry outlook as high pressure could set up further to our north ,but i,m hoping that all of us can see some wintry weather come next year ,A bit of snow on the ground hanging around for a while and a few ice days ,not asking for much ,i can see the headlines now ,5CM snow causes chaos ,transport paralysed  ,Net weather posters dragged away by men in white coats ,cheers gang :yahoo::yahoo:

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    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at tonights models and charts data etc there's enough to keep me interested ,and a nice straw to clutch regarding the possibility of high pressure setting up shop and hopefully as we enter January 2017 possibly pulling in some cold synoptics ,but at the back of my mind I have a dread of big fat euro slugs (terrible creatures ) just hoping they don't convince the met office high pressure to breed on main land Europe, just a quick joke ,one fat euro slug to another  ,cheer up mate in another 4 months we are off too  Iceland for our holidays ,well gang let's carry on with the search for cold and snow we have some hints on ecm towards the end of its run tonight and met office hinting of high to our West, and it's still only December the 20th ,game still and truly on ,cheers all :cold::drunk-emoji: .

    • Like 15

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    well looks like first low on GFS is some 150 miles further north , but at 4 days plus still time for change ,Secnd low not updated yet but think this one will be the more active one .I was a bit disappointed with this mornings ecm but at this range it could be all change this evening ,perhaps Met off update soon can shed some light on medium range outlook ,medium as in 7/10 days ,will be interesting If they still mention high to our west , crikey what a roller coaster ,hope we can get a few cold shots soon ,cheers ,:cold:

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Evening all ,Barbara would be our next named storm ,when we had Angus back in November I certainly thought that we would be on our 4th storm by now , ok current possible storm forecast at 7 to 8 days away .if it goes as ecm is modeling it's very bad news for probably 60 percent of  UK , 200 miles further south my next door neibours trampoline goes airborne again ,we are in the lap of the gods . 

    On tonights ecm high pressure is kept much further east ,I, v no clue to what lies past the new year ,any person have a clue ,drinks all round ,:drunk-emoji::snowman-emoji:.

    • Like 7
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