[SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion]

4 minutes ago, Gibby said:

I'm inclined to agree or at least agree in as much that temperatures might not be as low as previously thought. The wind having dropped towards dusk has picked up if anything with gusts to 10mph. Still 3.0C in Kilmersdon currently but it does feel cold out there.

Can confirm here on West mendip we have frost on the cars ,that was 9pm ,no wind at present ,owls are a screeching , cheers .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Lows dive bombing SE would be a good thing to help suck all the cold to the NE our way 

Would be great IF it came off but look at the date [doomed i think ]perhaps its on to something ,we need to stay calm like the weather , i,v just got in after a good night out , crikey its a cold one out there , cheers gang .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Yes agree waiting for good synoptics is very frustrating , [cold and Snow ] but i,m sure the professionals have seen something in their long range outlooks .

They could be right that blocking will take place in a few weeks time , but of course where it sets up is so so important if you want it cold and possibly snowy in our neck of the woods . looking at todays ECM at around 7/10 days what catches my eye is that at this range those lows out west look like they might just do about anything ,especially IF pressure over the pole rises or to our north so lets wait and be patient, weather is fascinating but past the range of a week or so very very hard to forecast .

Well good news ,13 weeks of meteorological winter to come soon ,[this thursday ] then we have 182 runs of ecm and uk met ,and of course double that of good old GFS ,enough to send you crackers ,so lets hope we can get a nice high pressure to our north somewhere ,low pressure to our south and this remaining for 8/10 weeks ,we can then just sit back ,pull up a chair do some curtain twitching radar watching ,a bit of food panic buying A STella etc .The upper air situation as apposed to most years is much different this year ,perhaps we will see big swings in the weather , and as others have said POtential ,Keep the faith gang ,relax chill , we dont realy know whats over that horizon ,cheers gang 

 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

I have said this before ,i will take what the main models say out to 168 hrs ,as thats a week away ,tomorrows rum  or should i say run will most likely be different again , i think perhaps the GFS as been on the Rum the last few days .Perhaps for now we are better off with nothing too cold or snowy in the charts ,just let things mature a bit and just wait to see what pops up more towards mid december , so another cliff hanger of a day , we are controled by computer weather models gang , great posts great forum , Stellas all round cheers .

 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think we're slowly edging towards model agreement. It's very unlikely that we're going to see a quick northerly and the trend now seems to be digging the jet further south off the ne USA and developing high pressure near or to the north of the UK. Whether this high can get far enough north to develop a colder feed is a wait and see. 

 

I feel the same ,think this is what bbc mentioned last night with guidance from met office , its going to be a tough bit of model watching , if the jet does dig south that opens up some good coldie synoptics  or to our north different again ,or perhaps the middle ground .

not a very technical post ,but we are in limbo along with the models i feel ,half expecting a sudden flood of charts all singing together , cheers gang ,catch you all up later .

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

morning gang ,it certainly is frustrating times but hopefully we will eventually see some cold air flooding south , as for gfs this morning its been on the bottle ,ecm not yet out [come on ecm place that high in the right place for a beasterly ], uk met ,smell the coffee ,well i,v had me fag and a good moan and ramp now back to bed ,cheers gang 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Yes  very interesting Model watching ,good run so fa r on GFS , but more runs needed to firm up and settle our Nerves .No joy of course on ecm run but i would expect going by what met office are hinting at for about ten days time i would hope to see Ecm throw out some stella runs from about saturday onwards .I,m going to firmly keep an eye on 168 hrs after all thats a week of weather ,From my experience if its out there [cold and snow ]it will probably be hinted at in main models then get snatched from us  then emerge again with Met office very confident ,it should all come together ,and hopefully we can then start humming that song ,[let it snow let it snow let it snow ] so today a good run from GFS , lets see what those unseen bits of data that MET OFF use,  is saying in outlook and eagerly awaited tonights runs , But gang stay calm ,we are still not in official winter yet cheers ,

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

20 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm, first signs of a change in the meto mrf, now sugesting the high getting pushed east allowing milder wet and windy weather in from the Atlantic  - they cover all bases by suggesting possible snowfall in the extended, all the same after viewing the NWP this morning i had a hunch it was a matter of time before we started seeing the text mentioning Atlantic lows..

Sorry  mods but posting this as i cant seem to get rid of it , MODEL FATIGUE ,CLICKED ON IT BY ACCIDENT CHEERS .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

From a coldies point of view i am happy at the moment with the charts out too 168 hours ,as thats a week away and a long time in forecasting .Final positioning of the high pressure and of course intensity and orientation still up for grabs ,so trying to fathom out what will be happening in ten days time seems pointless for us to worry about [but i can understand the frustrations of some ] Todays met update will give us some clues ,and i for one use this as the unseen Model plus i tend to look at charts out to 168 hrs as a guide ,well next stop for me GFS  after a coffee ,enjoy your day gang .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Morning ,we have the possibilities of a scandy high around 144/168 hrs or so , well that to me gang is good news . Gfs still big wild swings past this time frame , Yes we need to chil gang as Conner bailey degnan as just said above .

Even our ECM as big variations past 192 hours ,a very long time in the weather game .So let the winter start to mature a bit , even my dog as the Grumps this morning i,m sure he understands the charts ,as he loves the Snow like me and us on netweather [or should i say most of us ] so lets wait for Met office update and pull that apart and of course todays later runs , I,V PULLED THE SETTEE away from the wall and got out the big straws from the loft ,i,m off to the woodshed up top garden [we do have one ]to have a discussion with myself on the prospects this winter , I still personally think the cold will come , cheers gang 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

17 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Fantastic run from 12z 

Worth noting, based on that run, there would be many significant snow events, Midlands north.  unfortunately mainly rain for the far south

Will more than likely change next run, hopefully to something very wintry nation wide.

IF this run comes off or very similar there could be widespread snow even down my way south of the M4 even ,along way off but great to see , very tantalising though ,lets see tonights ecm next cheers 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not a great Op, hopefully plenty of 00z support in the ENS. This is probably one of those weeks where you should step away from model watching for a few days!!!

Totally agree ,i do this myself sometimes , it helps i,m sure ,looking according to charts that high pressure will become established but of course positioning critical ,half expecting a STella run soon though ,and not the drink variety gang ,cheers 

[Storm Angus - the first named storm of the season]

Very calm here ,and gone milder but radar looks threatening .

Would not be surprised if inland east of Dorset sees a 75mph gust and coastal areas close on 85 or more .

Only good news with Angus currently timing ,hopefully worst gone before people are out tomorrow in mass ,take care ,.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Just a short post from me ,i,ll take what models are showing out till about 6/7 days ahead tonight .

We need i think to keep low pressure to our south and just hope high pressure becomes situated further north ,taking Met office further outlook one can hope that the data they have is saying low south high north ,so i am expecting further big firming up from the big three tomorrow , currently i have buckets of rain ,only 24hrs or so after some wet snow , Its great having this big yo yo now i feel as its got an air of the good old days ,not constant mild pathetic mush , and charts like we are seeing now in further outlook with just a Bit of luck Can deliver our cold wishes .I,m looking for trends and good signals ,we have it gang ,STellas all round , cheers ..

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Just read todays posts ,got some time to myself after looking after elderly relative 24/7 , still liking the look of the charts and All the signals coming from extended outlooks and of course the Models 

Was lucky to be about early this morning to see some of the WhITE STUFF ,very magical , but was gone [Just like that ] .Looking at tonights charts I think at past 6/7 days its going to be critical where we finish up at ,in relation to where any major high pressure sets up ,not very technical point from me but many outcomes for us in the UK ,Wecould finish up eventually at 8 to 10 days in the freezer , or on our way to it . The high to our west bathing us in Atlantic sourced air ,sat over us ,or even worse to our south ,and of course there are other alternatives , just cast your minds back 8/10 days to where we are now , I honestly think we are in a very good position for some  interesting cold synoptics ,cheers gang .

[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

7 hours ago, SteveB said:

Stunning night last night, the loudest brightest flash of thunder & lightning I've ever seen & heard, this occurred around 7.30pm. Then around 2am this morning woke to more thunder & lightning + an epic hail storm. Everywhere was covered in hail & it was still there this morning.

Good start to this Winter & hey, the best thunderstorm I've had for many a year - crazy it came at the back end of Autumn.

Yes brilliant last night ,went shopping at Asda weston ,left 7,30 pm ish, whilst in car park we thought some one was taking photo with flash but within seconds one al mighty crack of thunder ,plus v hvy rain , did hearthe storm I n the night and hail still covering the ground at 7 am ,cheers .

[SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Cloudy with St, fog, light rain and a westerly breeze. Very mild with a temp of 13C

What a dank start to the day ,but yes mild  hopefully things will brighten up come Wednesday and the end of week too but with some wintry showers around .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Intresting GFS brings snow showers as far south as the M4 corridor

Friday evening

C.S

M4 corridor is a swear word ,no place on this great forum ,yes certainly very interesting times ahead ,great posts today , wonder what will pop up on the Fax charts over coming week ,cheers all .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Yes reading between the lines using Met office update to me is another tool in our armoury ,things looking good for colder wintry synoptics ,model watching as just become very interesting ,tonights runs eagerly awaited i,m sure, catch you up later .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Well going back to my comment on recent GFS run ,it gives some clues as apposed to any answers and all looking very interesting i must say .

Think we can expect some wild swings from the models from now on .Biggest puzzle to me is where does any block set up further down the line as hinted at in much further outlook which us morsels dont get to see at this range ,will it benefit [if you are in to coldcamp]  our friends in Greece , Balcans , scandinavia ,russia ,central Europe ,or even us SNOW COLD starved people here in the good old UK .Think its time to hide the Razors away , put the prozack out of reach , buy some straws and stock up on soup , great gang that we have some very interesting times ahead .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Morning all ,Very interesting looking at current charts ,we can fathom out the generall weather up untill next weekend but looking on ECM its what happens to the next low at days 7/8 will it move S east or sit across us ,or even come in further north ,all of course throwing up interesting possibilities and different weather for the UK .

Perhaps current GFS run can throw some light on this , well lets see where we are in tonights runs , interesting and challenging times for us weather fanatics ,cheers 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Evening gang ,Well currently looking at available charts and Data we go from mild mid week to a colder position come next week end or even a bit sooner .

I think plenty of wintry showers around with higher ground across our north prone to several cms ,I,M not getting fired up over the russian high just yet ,this could wax and wane for ages ,but good to see it around though ,not going to worry too much about later charts of the main models ,as we all know they can change twice per day .

But we do have some different synoptics around compared to last several Autumns ,and of course the Data we dont get to see but are able to read between the lines on met office long range updates daily ,And looking out to 30 days is a big minefield even in this day of computers and sophisticated Satellites ,perhaps the weather will follow the world news this year  brexit,  trump ,all not expected , record breaking snow and cold , any how ,just my take on things , Eyes down for tomorrows runs ,Crikey its time for Gfs  ,.

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Worth adding that we've seen strong agreement emerge now in past 24hrs for the cold outbreak later next week. We see a tipping point then in latest EC ENS: A direct split between those that go on to stall the pattern, thereby maintaining the cold cyclonic feed; versus those that revert to something a bit more mobile. By final days of Nov, the upturn in colder (N/NW or broad E'ly) solutions is quite striking v earlier runs, which may offer credence to the colder cyclonic offering for early Dec in latest EC Monthly. But we must remind ourselves that's still about a month away...

From a former fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society  thank you Fergieweather for your contribution to our forum,This forum certainly beats having forecast charts [fax charts ]posted to me each day as i did back in the 80s .

Only thing very similar is that time past 120hrs ,big improvements these days of course ,and its great that we have that uncertainty still ,makes it more interesting and not so clinical  keeps the hunt more alive ,as for current charts it looks like some very interesting weather Could be heading towards our shores later next week ,but with many options on the table after that ,great forum gang cheers to all who post ,

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Certainly a  very interesting time a looming ,so going by current long range charts we i think are looking at possibly something for coldies arriving after next fri/sat , so we should start to see some good charts appearing later this week end .

Of course time will tell and many twists and turns let downs etc to come ,but as others have pointed out its only November so patience is required .But looking at northern hemisphere charts i,m hoping that with just a bit of luck [and of course mother natures help ] we can see some good cold air flood south across our neck of the woods , so keep the prozack locked away and treat your pram with respect we dont want Mother getting upset so early in our Season of ups and downs .

Right now going to see what GFS as cooked up on current run ,cheers gang .

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Good morning gang ,nice to have a nice crisp cold morning ,And some interesting synoptics to start the week .Looking at this mornings charts it does look that milder air will gain the upper hand after a short fight though ,but i,m not putting too much faith past next weekend as i,m expecting that there will be many twists and turns ,simply because the GFS is showing a big difference from each run and ECM past 6 days currently could lead to another cold shot IF high pressure sets up in the correct position for the UK .

Would like to State Again this year that any Member of Net weather who would like to understand the workings of the upper atmosphere would or could benefit from studying the Science of Contrails ,if you type in Science of Contrails it makes a good read ,how they form and what shape ,how long they last etc ,how much Moisture is up there how dry it is and wind circulation ,you can even track which Jet is causing the contrail and what altitude it is at . So some interesting months ahead gang ,catch you up later