[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

6 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Very tempted to catch a bus to the peak district this afternoon, looks like the showers are falling as snow over there.

Does anyone know if this pattern would have seen snow fall to low levels if it occurred during December?

quite possibly ,but probably in any heavy outburst ,also early morning and evening time ,lets hope we CAN see more of these synoptics over the coming winter ,As far as todays model output still uncertain where we will be Synoptic wise in the further outlook perod IE 8days , on this mornings ecm we have a large elongated High pressure belt setting up at day 8/10 across our patch ,yet on GFS a deep low tracking e/seast , look on met office update and read between lines and Bingo we have the ANswer ,[ answer being Not known ] which

for me personally makes things interesting going into mid  month ,certainly not boring ,cheers gang Ice on the bird bath this morning plus local squirrel with a coat on 

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

Good morning gang ,I took a day mostly away from the charts yesterday  came back this morning and quite a change on the further outlook .

Plenty of firming up before we reach the Last couple of predicted charts from ECM but with the signals that were there several days ago i see no reason that mid November could become blocked again .Tonights runs really need to reflect that i feel .so will tonight deliver , Behind the sofa for me ,catch you all up later ,

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest METO forecast suggest there is still a large degree of uncertainty from mid next week, although most point to a largely less cold feel.  It also says the East may hang on to the colder and dryer weather.

 Again, this is slightly different from yesterday with regards their wording, so the pattern is obviously very hard to predict with any degree of certainty even at this range.  I'm pretty sure the 12z and next ECM will put some meat on the bones, along with the 12z UKMO!!

Next please!!!

Morning ,I was about to post a similar view of met office update , so to me it looks very uncertain after mid next week onwards  same as our visible models are showing .

But still uncertain whether we will get high pressure over Scandy or centred a little further south ,As ALI 1977 Said tonights runs could give us a few more clues ,So at least we have some good synoptics on offer ,the other out come could be diving low pressure areas ,all interesting stuff ,cheers gang 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

At this point looking at current charts and reading chatter on weather sites etc ,next week is looking cold to start then one big question mark as to where we go after next wednesday .

Todays Met office update could throw a few clues in as to what they see that we dont ,and tonights main players will i,m sure be eagerly watched  perhaps from behind the firniture ,with my dog wagging his tail ,one wag for atlantic dross six wags for cold continental ,Great posts today ,cheers gang  .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Will current gfs run show increasing high pressure over scandy ,steady as she goes ,but wont be staying up to find out ,going to check up tomorrow after mornings runs but looks interesting ,cheers .

[South West & CS England Weather Discussion Spring 2016 (26th March ------->)]

Well got my digging up garden done ,even had a sausage bap with pickle ,lovely day weatherwise ,still quite a few ladybirds around , suppose make the most of this settled weather as it looks a bit chilly and unsettled in short outlook .

[South West & CS England Weather Discussion Spring 2016 (26th March ------->)]

Just spent this morning digging garden ready for the winter ,realy great out there ,last night was good for some sky watching great clear sky ,we do have some interesting weather ahead ,lets hope this winter can deliver some interesting weather ,perhaps a nice mix to please all , just love it when a deep cover of snow is lit by a low sun , A quiet night with the stars twinkling and a stella up the wood shed 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Looking forward to some colder weather so I will just enjoy what mother nature is giving us .further outlook charts will change again come tomorrow and the day after too ,but I, m confident that it's going to be a very interesting period coming up ,upper Atmosphere vastly different than past years at this stage , Stella's all round ,whoops  wrong one  .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Just now, fergieweather said:

Correct. GloSea5 points to a weakened PV throughout the period. Note the markedly low probability for +ve avg temperatures overall (compare to last year's prognosis!). Anyway, it's all for a different thread: Apols mods. :-)

Thanks for your contributions ,certainly some interesting times ahead , Great though that we dont know whats far ahead in this model output forum ,remember back in the 1980s getting charts posted to me from weather centre , big improvements of course these days but nice to know that every day see,s a new possibility .

Great that we have probably the best forum around ,especially when you see some of the rubbish turned out on other outlets etc ,cheers .

[South West & CS England Weather Discussion Spring 2016 (26th March ------->)]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

Another peasouper this morning up here in the Mendips, hope it turns into a day as nice as yesterday. The warmth and sun yesterday prompted a very strange thing yesterday....clouds of Ladybirds, literally thousands of them everywhere, covering every surface. Very odd, never seen anything like it before. Tried reporting it in the Nature thread but the page won't stop scrolling, making it impossible to post!

Same here on west mendip ,Lady birds about ,and bumble bees out and about  certainly a great autumn day ,very misty and chilly out now though .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Yes this Fim weather model looks good ,i simply typed in fim weather model . Its been a very interesting day today ,some action hopefully coming our way cheers .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

2 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

http://fim.noaa.gov/

Not sure how reliable it is, I haven't heard much about it so it would be interesting to get some views from the experts.

This fim model I looked up today ,looks interesting ,I put in fim on Google . Made interesting read .cheers .you need to type in Fim weather model .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Looking at todays charts a cooling off generally still looks on the cards for next week ,but beyond day 7 i feel that we have many options .There is some chatter on forums about the Vortex getting its act together , which i,m sure will set hearts a racing  But at this range and in this unusual pattern for october could be in many positions ,we could get a vortex set up in its usual home for us but high pressure also setting up in a favourable position that we get a good shot at some cold air .

All very complex [as usual ] but i do feel that some interesting times are ahead for us Model watchers ,so with 13 weeks of winter still to come and 4 weeks of autumn left please dont get down beat ,will be interesting to see if ECM 9/10 day chart later maintains some sort of high pressure to our far west /n west ,we are not alone in this quiet almost Calm situation , across the pond things are similar but some models are now toying with some action setting up in about 10/15 days time ,Action will come but not untill Mother nature gets to work on our upper air patterns , looking forward to future discussions on the best forum for weather ,cheers Gang 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

31 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Please don't disregard this mods as I feel it's not off topic and overall considerably relevant to the present discussion re medium term cold prospects...Just been listening to this mornings 7:55 weather update from Ireland's met service and what's being forecast from midweek onwards doesn't seem to concur with what we're seeing here on the likes of both the  Ecm and Gfs 00z  

Wednesday will be a mainly dry day with sunny spells followed by a cold, clear night with minimum temperatures coming closer to freezing with light to moderate northwesterly winds. The winds will begin to back to the southwest later. 

The further outlook to towards the end of next week is for southwesterly winds and temperatures around normal for the time of year. There's a signal for a spell of rain for Friday but otherwise a good deal of dry weather.

Thanks for posting Newberryone ,you are posting as you see it and as the professionals are seeing it .If further outlook charts come off its after this that we might All see colder weather i feel ,A Realy dross overcast drizzly day in my kneck of the woods  bring on winter proper ,cheers.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 6z shows reload after reload of cold air from the northwest / north from next week onwards which for a coldie is very good to see.

Yes frosty Gfs showing some interesting Charts into November , Looking forward to tonights ECM MET of updates as if its out there next week we should start to see some firming up ,but i do expect a bit of flipping from run to run .I,m eagerly awaiting todays 16 day update from Met office also ,although we dont get to see any of their charts for this range at least we can read between the lines .Interesting northern profile at the moment ,seems to be quiet across the Pond , lets hope any cold air bottling up can be ejected south somewhere ,but with us weather enthusiasts lets hope it arrives not too early , Interesting times ahead i feel ,I may watch tonights runs from behind Sofa With A Cool STella and sausage bap ,.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This GFS looks like a better run, the low over the West of Greenland is a different shape and looks like staying to the West of Greenland alowing a better chance of a block to form.  Also, the 3 lows at 192 on the 00z are now showing 1 big low so a less complicated picture.  That's my untrained eye on things so far this run.

In fact, this could be a great run from day 9, if we get a NE wind going there is much more cold weather close by in Scandy to tap into - relative to the time of year of course.

Gfs certainly a good run for coldies , Ecm still hard to pin down after 144hrs  but will wait for Met of update to think what their thinking is ,of course we dont get to see their later charts but we can read between the lines ,and there is some good signs available in other data , its a hard life for us but Meteorology is so enjoyable ,catch you all up later ,cheers .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indian summer conditions from the Ecm 00z, really impressive charts from a warm perspective for so deep into autumn with 564 dam thicknesses encroaching on the south..and on the cusp of November! BBQ this weekend anyone?

yes bbq this weekend ,Brilliant interesting charts currently something for us to get our teeth into , something i hope is lurking out there ,cheers gang

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Afternoon all ,just a quick reply to Faronstream question above ,If we have high pressure cells positioned favourably to our North  far n /west or Scandy etc and they are persistant [staying in place for a good time that will bring us the cold temperatures ] .Areas of low pressure then tracking across say northern france  will quite often bring us snowy conditions For some ,If an active low is positioned to our west weather fronts will push warmer air into the cold mix ,depending on Many synoptic situations it can be humid mild at certain heights in the atmosphere .Another way of looking at your question would be December 1962 Boxing day [mid evening in my kneck of the woods ] A large area of relatively mild air and steady moderate rain across southern britain was gradually being replaced by very cold air which undercut ,SNow turned very heavy with massive flakes [so some very mild conditions aloft ,eventually temperatures mixed more, so snow then became moderate in size ,the cold air came as a result of a ridge of high pressure moving west to our north ,i wont get to technical as you can read this all up easily on the Internet .

Indeed most heavy falls of snow is a result of moist air battling colder dryer air ,also as a general rule winters with above average pressure to our north and lower than normal to our south [but many combinations ]

Ps  after this event it did turn briefly mild till 29/30 dec ,but thats another story and not Model output ralated ,catch you all up later ,hoping for some good charts tonight after this morning slight back track ,cheers .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Morning Gang ,OK , charts currently are moving away from those of recent ,but i,m not looking too much past 144 hrs it could all swing back to what they were showing a couple of days ago .

Certainly some interesting Data around and a different upper air profile in norther latitudes ,The roller coaster as started and i think we are going to get some wild swings ,many a colder spell as turned up after milder than normal weather ,thats Meteorology for you , off to get some Razor blades ,prozack and tidy up my pram ,catch you all up later .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Great forum ,very interesting charts tonight ,current fax charts would cause a stir if later into the winter . 

We are looking at nothing disturbed over the coming week going by current data ,then we have the big carrot in the further outlook charts ,if it comes off  and we can tap into some low temp ,and IF synoptics allow ,and it would need a block in place for a while But it's happened before so let's see what the charts look like in a weeks time ,interesting times ahead ,but watch out gang the charts aren't set in stone , cheers .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Morning fellow posters ,charts still showing mostly settled weather conditions with some good weather for getting out and about ,next few days could become dank and a little wet for some but there after just quiet Mid autumn days with some sun in favoured locations and some fog and frost about .

Looking at ECM there isa hint of high pressure setting up to our far north west but it will need more runs to convince me of this ,Gfs does show a large low moving to our far west in its later out put ,certainly upper air patterns a bit different this year across northern latitudes so i may this evening grab a STella ,and sit and relax and prepare my mind for the coming roller coaster season we are all heading towards ,cheers 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Well looking at current Data,  its looking quiet and rather pleasant till Months end ,after that a possibility that we could see some typical november weather ,But although its great looking at GFS throwing some 528 dam at us or close to us i personally wont be getting excited quite yet ,[ bring on the stellas !!!!  Frosty get the crayons out ] i,m looking forward to this upcoming winter ,on the best weather forum on the planet ,catch you all up later 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Sorry about above post ,clicked on it yesterday to give reply then changed my mind and cant get rid of it .

So thought i would send it blank to try to correct it ,PS  chart watching now becoming more interesting ,cheers all .

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

22 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Well I make no apology that I'm seeking our first cold shot of the season and there are a few interesting GEFS 12z perturbations for the end of october with powerful scandi highs and others with potential arctic incursions!

I like P5 best

 

[South West & CS England Weather Discussion Spring 2016 (26th March ------->)]

Rain arrived here ,very heavy at present, looking at radar Weymouth way looks like a good place for thunder ,could be other areas later looking at satellite coverage ,cheers .