legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Yes great Halo tonight , very atmospheric whilst out with the dog earlier could hear the local tawny owls and a few deer up in the woods .
looks like another spell of rain is in coming ,would be nice for a long sunny spell with frost ,perhaps in the outlook but that seems to be changing every time i look at the charts ,take care all
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I for one am not going to get sucked into the end of Tonights ECM run ,there is plenty of scatter around and at present i would not be surprised if tomorrows runs look totally different .
With all the advances with computers satellites etc looking 10 days ahead and trying to get areas of high pressure and low pressure centres pin pointed is still a game of gradual accurancey and i feel we are no where near that at present .so with high pressure being modelled in the medium range and some pretty potent low pressure systems around all i can hope for now is some very interesting weather to be had ,that will keep me interested and we all know in our hearts that in a few weeks time we Could be digging ourselves out from 3 meter drifts or walking down the high st in shorts or even canoeing up the road let alone getting lost in freezing fog ,so for us modell [weather ] watchers cheer up theres always tomorrow ,crack open the STellas and roll on tomorrow ,cheers gang
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Totally miserable here ,periods of mod rain but mild wind howling down the chimney ,just checked on a few pots of spring onions i seeded back end of august and they are doing well ,thats three years in a row pulling spring onions at christmas ,even my beetroot looks ok but i expect they will be a bit woody ,looks like more atlantic weather to come but some signs hopefully of a cool down ,take care all .
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Just taking our current GFS run ,its certainly Dire for some places in our island over the coming 6/7 days and possibly beyond with no end in sight from rain wind and possibly now some wintryness over favoured areas especially more northern parts .
Certainly very interesting synoptics and again A significant weather event as taken place across our little island ,when i say weather event i,m talking what we have had now for quite a long time ,on par with late november and december 2010 but of course different weather but certainly headline event .
Looking at the realy further outlook past christmas and beyond a possibility of pressure rising to our east or there abouts but still an active atlantic so what will be around that meteorological horizon ,im pretty sure that we have some interesting weather to get through this winter lets hope the dice can fall in our favour .
of course what goes on way up in our atmosphere the upper troposphere and beyond [stratosphere etc ]we are only starting to understand ,things could kick off in the new year so lets enjoy all weather types ,off outside for my last Puff of the night ,i can hear the wind howling so it will be like a hair dryer ,bring me winter , snow and ice ,cheers all .
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On 18/12/2015 at 11:42 AM, legritter said:
thought i would pop in ,spent several months now nursing my 93 yr old mother in law but now things are easier i can now spend a bit more time on my weatjher hobby .
Still today seeing more bumble bees and birds not even bothering with bird table etc .
we had a humming bird hawk moth the other day feeding on my late larks spur plants ,and frogs still moving about in this crazy weather ,some signs today in the charts of something cooler in the far outlook ,but as usual all subject to change ,lets hope we can get some nice wintry weather in the new year ,south of the M4 of course .
still amazingly mild today but just had some steady rain and wind still howling down the chimney ,
.managed to dig up some spuds yesterday ,some were a bit rotten but enough for quite a few meals .As Dorsetbread also pointed out, our Robin waited to have a feed on any food i dug up ,today no sign of bumbles but a group of about 20 long tail tits arrived making a noise then left when our neighbours cat arrived ,signs of something cooler later next week ,well mad saturday went well today most shopping now done ,going to have a sausage bap and wrap a few presents ,my brussels up the garden look good considering will pick them christmas eve cheers gang
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Just popped in before mad saturday shopping ,and certainly some nice looking interesting and eye candy charts this morning .
Ecm could lead us into something more seasonal but we need high pressure a bit further north but at least its being modelled and also some interesting low pressure around ,our forum will certainly not be boring but later further outlook still not sorted , looking better now from a coldies view so thats good
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10 hours ago, legritter said:
thought i would pop in ,spent several months now nursing my 93 yr old mother in law but now things are easier i can now spend a bit more time on my weatjher hobby .
Still today seeing more bumble bees and birds not even bothering with bird table etc .
we had a humming bird hawk moth the other day feeding on my late larks spur plants ,and frogs still moving about in this crazy weather ,some signs today in the charts of something cooler in the far outlook ,but as usual all subject to change ,lets hope we can get some nice wintry weather in the new year ,south of the M4 of course .
Called in to see my sister today ,she seeded a new lawn back in september and it looks so green and quite long but leaving any cutting to next spring .
still plenty of bumble bees about and some big flys today ,looks like an end could be in sight with our record warmth lets hope we can get some nice crisp days and a nice Mantle of snow ,cheers .
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thought i would pop in ,spent several months now nursing my 93 yr old mother in law but now things are easier i can now spend a bit more time on my weatjher hobby .
Still today seeing more bumble bees and birds not even bothering with bird table etc .
we had a humming bird hawk moth the other day feeding on my late larks spur plants ,and frogs still moving about in this crazy weather ,some signs today in the charts of something cooler in the far outlook ,but as usual all subject to change ,lets hope we can get some nice wintry weather in the new year ,south of the M4 of course .
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On 12/12/2015 at 10:27 AM, knocker said:Morning all ,i,m feeling a lot more optimistic today regards a fair chance of some colder weather hopefully being modelled by todays charts in the further outlook .
But GFS still wild swings on every run ,Ecm interesting bringing in colder 850 s in a slack flow so some people could see some wintry weather in the later christmas period .
just a gut feeling but the following days could see some eye candy as we start to see a slight change in weather type and the modells toy with different outcomes ,the great synoptic pattern of December 2010 started to fizzle out after christmas could our blowtorch current spell do the same, cheers all I raise a glass to those prospects .
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Well again today we have bumble bees ,last night a few frogs moving about and the heating only going on last night for my frail mother in law . but hopefully a few crumbs of comfort on todays charts ,something quite stormy and very wet later next week and the possibility of some high pressure setting up shop but exact details very slim at the moment .
certainly very interesting synoptics around so mother nature in a very active mood ,its this i,m clutching at ,we could go reverse ,heres hoping ,oh well lets take the old dog out before todays rain arrives ,cheers .
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Well for some reason my Daffs are still under apart from some here and there , took a bit of rest time today up the wood shed [yes we have one ] also the potting shed .
Well plenty of insect life running around owing to this mucky mild mush ,sat in the doorway and observed plenty of bumble bees having a feed on my nasturtiums which have come from seed laid down naturally back in september .
What was amazing was a hummingbird hawk moth turned up for a feast on my late flowering Larks spur , December!!! more like a late september day .Well i do like the look of the last frame of tonights ECM ,if that crosses us it could be fun but at ten days away still many options could be the outcome ,lets hope its picking up on signals of some very cold air coming our way ,so if we can get a very deep low too our east we could be in business , i,m going to crack open a STella ,cheers gang .
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Todays charts carry on showing us mild muck ,ok great for heating bills and great for slugs and snails ,but hang on is something stirring in the wood shed ,looks like a cool down in the far off charts and i,v got a feeling in my water that something is about to happen , perhaps the charts will liven up for us coldies next week we could all do with a nice cheering up on that front ,cheers all decorating the tree today
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Models do seem to point to very mild air across our tiny island right out to christmas ,but beyond that things could change ,i,m hoping perhaps if the polar vortex does become a monster that it Squares off with our patch of the northern Hemisphere .
I,m sure that somewhere along the road temperatures will correct themselves ,but very interesting weather all the same .
I seem to have lost a few posts and cocked up posting so my apologies if i,m causing Mayhem .
Good posts on our first rate forum ,
cheers all .
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On 12/12/2015 at 10:27 AM, knocker said:
hoops sorry
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We seem to be gently sailing along ,It seems that every day the charts are almost predictable ,with every chance now of some amazing pre christmas temperatures possibly passing the low 60s .
ok boring for most of us cold and snow merchants but so far this late autumn and early winter we have seen some amazing synoptics ,this is where i,m personally hoping that our cold shots will come as a very fluid and predictable weather pattern possibly changes ,we seem to get long periods of the Same weather types so heres hoping .
This weather forum still the best around for content ,learning ,and each day a challenge so all crack open a STella ,
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31 minutes ago, jethro said:
In my garden I've gone from having the heaviest crop ever of Holly berries to no berries at all in the space of two weeks. Blackbirds have eaten every one. They usually wait for a few weeks yet before munching their way through them, they're on to something, they know something big is brewing......
yes very strange that our blackbirds are leaving the berries alone [ours are pyracanthia berrys ] also we have a gang of long tail tits passing through several times per day could be 20 or 30 birds ,and i have frogs croaking when usually they are well and truly usually under some log or shed ,all very interesting
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What the GFS gives ,the ECM taketh away .
but i,v got my fingers crossed ,straws are sat on the table ,sacks of salt piled up in the Wood shed ,off down asda tomorrow for a winter stock up ,dont want to get caught out with no food during christmas freeze and raging Blizzards .crikey black birds sat today counting the berries on the bushes ,what do they know that we dont ,
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Evening ,would just like to give my support to all of those thinking [come on charts surely things arent going to stay the same for the next twelve weeks ] .
well i think some hints tonight of colder 850 s and pressure generally falling to our south and hints from day to day of some sort of pressure rise to our north northeast ,not the most usefull post i know ,but big changes could be afoot and we have plenty of time left if its winter synoptics your after ,
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just lost a post ,but just waiting for some eye candy ,certainly not boring and just a hint from tonights gfs run of something a little cooler ,long way out but interesting patience is the key gang ,let's hope this post arrives in the right place ,cheers .
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good morning all ,i was going to have a good moan ,but i,m happy with all the mild mush bartlets ,zonal trains etc etc .
certainly looks like the following two weeks will see usual british late autumn early winter synoptics ,all models seem to be showing same old BUT we know it can all change and we have all winter left for some fun and games ,last weekends cold spell was good for late autumn although short lived ,Just a reminder gang that Cold air is not far away to our north ,as i said i,m happy with current mild ,would rather have it later when its more use ,
:drinks:of course i mean i,d rather have the cold later than too early . -
Brrrrr, it's getting chilly out there. Lovely to have a dry day but it's a bit of a shock to the system, that wind cuts straight through you. Gritters out on the way home from work, guess that's winter on the way then.
yes our local road today had new bins of grit put in ,also yard in village had the drivers testing the gritters ,some nice radar showing up showers up north ,but after years of weather watching i would not call this one !but everything synoptic wise is there but its a case of watching and waiting ,i would have thought some lake effect type snow around our coasts and some surprises possible in land if the dice falls right ,cheers .
ps truck loads of cider apples still being transported to thatchers ,about the latest i,v seen them doing this . -
Well looking at current charts not much in the way of anything cold or even cool on the horizon ,BUT the upper atmosphere and other variables are busy probably cooking up our coming winter ,so hang on gang we just dont know whats in store just yet .
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Morning all,seems to be all systems go for a generally mild first half of Nov looking at today's charts ,I am now in the IT age first post from a tablet here goes
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The Gfs 6z again shows a more seasonal pattern by next week with scotland in particular becoming rather cold with increasing Pm influence and showers turning wintry on northern high ground with overnight frosts, towards mid month it becomes noticeably colder at times further south too. It's a generally unsettled run with bouts of rain and strong winds affecting the uk, especially further north. I think the coldies among us will be pleased to see the chances of relatively colder air at times in the next few weeks looking increasingly likely...not very mild all the time which will make a nice change for this coldie!
It realy warms the cockles of my heart these charts from Frosty ,great forum and nice now we are seeing a possible more mobile pattern setting up looking at current charts ,I have a new toy [samsung tablet ]so i can now sit in front of a warm fire instead of a desk top ,and enjoy our forum ,will try soon to use it on here ,
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:drinks:of course i mean i,d rather have the cold later than too early .
ps truck loads of cider apples still being transported to thatchers ,about the latest i,v seen them doing this .
Model output discussion - 1st December onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Good evening all and merry christmas to you all .I,m very happy with current charts etc ,plenty to keep us interested and plenty of scatter about which i like to see .
not so good this evening for people prone to flooding ,and later next week looking very disturbed ,good eye candy with high pressure to our east and north east and we all know how these highs can be hard to forecast .
talking of fax charts i think they are a thing of beauty ,but with so much detail especially at the 4/5 day range each publication will vary alot especially during current synoptic situation .
so at this stage it looks a fair bet that some could see something wintry later next week and start of new year as some good 850 s temperatures get in the mix .
Perhaps santa can arrange for a nice block to set up to our n north east ,cheers to you all ,fantastic Lunar Halo currently and a nice hail shower today winters on its way ,poor daffis
